Some interesting notes from Harris County (TX)

[Go Budaw]

I reacted to you calling the percentage of nursing home deaths in NYC as in line with the "national average." It's dishonest and misleading, and everyone here knows it.

To be clear, I was referring to the NY state numbers, and they are in line with the national average even if you assume the full worst case scenario with that 14,000 number being correct. That’s not misleading, it’s hard data. NYC numbers specifically were harder to come by (possibly due to the amorphous boundaries with NJ suburbs and other areas...but I digress), however the overall death rate and population rate of NYC relative to the state as a whole are both about 50%, so those are proportional. I’ve seen no evidence to suggest NYC’s numbers specifically are a higher percentage of nursing home deaths overall than the national average, but if they are it would by default mean that the numbers for the rest of the state are well below that national average. Again, if you have NYC specific data for nursing home deaths within the subset of NY state data, please feel free to provide it. Otherwise, your argument holds no water.

FYI, I do totally agree that Cuomo’s terrible policy at the onset of the outbreak definitely led to more deaths, and that is inexcusable. But while even one added death is too many, the number of added deaths does not seem to have changed the picture of NYC or NY state relative to the rest of the country in terms of percentage of deaths from nursing homes.

And sure, you can find some articles holding Cuomo accountable on Google. They're mostly from conservative news outlets. I almost fell out of my chair last week when Jake Tapper actually criticized Cuomo for taking victory laps on the virus - because it is so out of character for anyone in the mainstream media to do that.

Yes, many conservative outlets were critical of Cuomo, as were some neutral / left ones like CBS / ABC. Of course there will be more conservative outlets attacking the NYC’s and Californias of the world while the liberal ones attack the South, TX, Florida, etc. In other news, water is wet, hell is hot, etc. But, there is no mainstream media conspiracy like you seem to suggest. Nobody is getting a pass from everybody, and the influence of the liberal and conservative media voices is equal. Unfortunately, it’s up to us the American people to apply the appropriate filter to whatever we are reading or watching.

Approximately 40% of all covid deaths in this country are nursing home deaths. And of that number, almost a fourth of those are NY/NJ nursing homes. I'd call that disproportionate. And there's a lot of skepticism about NY's numbers...that they're actually much worse than what's been reported.

Ok, 25% of nursing home deaths are from NY/ NJ? Well, 33% of ALL Covid deaths are from those same areas. And yeah, I’d call that disproportionate too...for the same reason I already mentioned - population density. You have the most densely populated state in the country right next to the most densely populated city in the country in a different state. It was always going to be way worse in NY / NJ no matter what.

 

[Drebin]

The two state's are headed in the complete opposite direction. Florida's current hospitalization rate is 13X hire than New York's. Keep in mind, in late May the two states were average roughly the same number of daily positive tests (though NY was doing 2X or 3X more testing). Florida's have exploded since then, NY's have continued to trend down.

Just to tie a bow on this, 7/20's positive test rate %:

NY - 1.05%
FL - 20.9%

If you look at the chart of cases and deaths going back to early march, until today, you see the NY spike early, while you see a late hump in Florida (not a spike, but a small hump). New York never "flattened the curve," but instead saw the virus run through the city early. Florida, meanwhile, did exactly what they were supposed to do, which is why their curve was flattened. What you're seeing now in Florida is pretty much what you're seeing everywhere and what should have been expected when things reopened. The raw numbers are higher in Florida (and Texas, and although the media won't report it, California), because it's a highly populated state.

Anyone who attempts to compare NY stats with Florida stats in a current-date snapshot is not to be taken seriously. You have to start from the beginning. When you do that, there's no comparison, so I understand the zeal with which the media chooses to practice revisionist history.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Well, Florida (or any city in it) has nothing close to the population density of New York City, where the state’s outbreak was concentrated. The state as a whole has 397 residents per square mile. The most population-dense city in the state (Miami) has about 13,000 people per square mile. NYC has 27,000 people per square mile.

You simply cannot ignore the impact of population density when it comes to the spread of the virus. Even the most perfect regulations and practices are going to have less of an impact when you have a number of people that exceeds the entire population of Starkville living in a single square mile, and that same number per square mile multiplied out about 300 times over for the same area. There’s just too many damn people. Not even to mention, Cuomo and NYC caught quite a bit of flack in their own right, even though it was at the very beginning of the outbreak.

Florida and others are also catching a more intense backlash due to the timing. Florida had beaches wide open, restaurants serving at full capacity, and other very lax practices when we know way more than we did 4 months ago, and when the rest of the country still has more stringent guidelines in place.

Cuomo turned nursing homes into death camps...the virus burned through them...

 

[GloryDawg]

Thanks for info because we will not hear it anywhere else.

 

[Drebin]

Here's a graph to put the 2 states in perspective (Texas in there too)...

Thanks for posting this chart. It's what I was referring to in my earlier post in this thread. It illustrates the difference between flattening the curve and failing to do so.

 

[ronpolk]

Current 7 day death total average:

FL - 115
NY - 10

Florida is a disaster right now.

Now compare Florida to NY’s peak.... or to California right now. Florida did everything it was supposed to when this first started. They could not stay shut down forever.

I’m not advocating that Florida is better or worse than anywhere else. You stated that you didn’t think cases were being political when reported. I disagree and bring up California as an example and NY at their peak, which you won’t admit.

Florida’s death rate is much better than NY because the governor didn’t throw a bunch of sick people in the middle of the most vulnerable population. Until the media is willing to admit that New York absolutely blew it to begin with, then I will continue to say the media has made this political.

 

[missouridawg]

I hate to bump an old thread like this, but the CDC completely goes against the idea that positive tests are counted regardless of the person. They explicitly state that each person is only counted once. I would love to know more about this meeting, but some DMs to ezsoil have gone un-answered.