It seems that we will be a #5 or #6 seed in all likelihood. If we can get to Saturday, we'll be a 5 seed. If we go 0-1 or 1-1, we'll stay a 6 seed. What does that look like for the NCAA Tournament?
Neither a #5 or #6 seed is guaranteed a close pod, but the closest first/second round locales are Columbia, SC, Jacksonville, FL and Tulsa, OK. Not anything super close.
A #6 seed faces a #11 seed in the first round. It is likely that at least one of the #11 seeds will be a First Four participant. ESPN has one #11 and one #12. If there are a couple of significant low seed upsets this week in conference tournaments, both First Four games could be seeded #11. That gives a significant advantage - an extra game and travel to our opponent. ESPN has us playing the winner of NC State and Temple.
A #6 seed likely faces a #3 seed in the second round. LSU and Tennessee are hovering around this line, but they cannot be second round opponents. Likely second round opponents would be Michigan, Houston, Texas Tech or Purdue.
A #5 seed faces a #12 seed in the first round. Like the 6/11 - there could be a First Four game involved. The most common double seed upset is the 12 over 5. We've been the victim of that twice over the years (Eastern Michigan in '91, and Butler in '03). Its a dangerous game, but with the new NCAA NET ranking, I expect this to trend the other way. Normally, the 12 seed is a team like Wofford. They have a gaudy record and shoot the ball well. A #5 seed is typically a team ranked 20-25 that may have had a disappointing season. The new NET ranking rewards teams like Wofford. ESPN has Wofford a 7 seed.
The likely contenders for the 12 seed line include Clemson, TCU, St Mary's, St. John's, Texas and Florida (three of which we beat). Murray State is hovering around that line as well - and they fit the old mold of the 12 seed. They are actually on the 13 seed line, but could be rewarded with an 11 or 12 seed because of an impressive 27-4 record. They played two Power 5 teams all year and lost to both of them - Alabama and Auburn.
Neither a #5 or #6 seed is guaranteed a close pod, but the closest first/second round locales are Columbia, SC, Jacksonville, FL and Tulsa, OK. Not anything super close.
A #6 seed faces a #11 seed in the first round. It is likely that at least one of the #11 seeds will be a First Four participant. ESPN has one #11 and one #12. If there are a couple of significant low seed upsets this week in conference tournaments, both First Four games could be seeded #11. That gives a significant advantage - an extra game and travel to our opponent. ESPN has us playing the winner of NC State and Temple.
A #6 seed likely faces a #3 seed in the second round. LSU and Tennessee are hovering around this line, but they cannot be second round opponents. Likely second round opponents would be Michigan, Houston, Texas Tech or Purdue.
A #5 seed faces a #12 seed in the first round. Like the 6/11 - there could be a First Four game involved. The most common double seed upset is the 12 over 5. We've been the victim of that twice over the years (Eastern Michigan in '91, and Butler in '03). Its a dangerous game, but with the new NCAA NET ranking, I expect this to trend the other way. Normally, the 12 seed is a team like Wofford. They have a gaudy record and shoot the ball well. A #5 seed is typically a team ranked 20-25 that may have had a disappointing season. The new NET ranking rewards teams like Wofford. ESPN has Wofford a 7 seed.
The likely contenders for the 12 seed line include Clemson, TCU, St Mary's, St. John's, Texas and Florida (three of which we beat). Murray State is hovering around that line as well - and they fit the old mold of the 12 seed. They are actually on the 13 seed line, but could be rewarded with an 11 or 12 seed because of an impressive 27-4 record. They played two Power 5 teams all year and lost to both of them - Alabama and Auburn.
