It’s interesting to me that Vegas is higher on us than the fan base.
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Some CFB Win Total O/U are out..
- Thread starter 57stratdawg
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Trying to look at it without bias, my issue is we won 8 games last year and is there ANY position on the field that we can say this year where we should be better? MAYBE at WR just due to the experience of Mitchell and Guidry but who knows if they really improve. Everywhere else we are probably roughly the same or slightly worse. We know that the interior DL is probably a step down from last year and likely safety as well. On offense, as stated, the key will be play at QB and if our WRs have improved. Last year going in I thought 8 wins was probably the floor, this year 8 wins may be the ceiling. The one positive is we trade FL for TN and maybe TN is still not ready to take a real step forward given we lost to Mullen and FL last year.
Pretty much my thoughts as well. Specifically talking about the schedule, it wouldn’t take much to talk yourself into wins against UK and UT this year, but then we’ll almost certainly be dogs on the road against Auburn and A&M.
It’s a really weird schedule next season because I could honestly see anywhere from 5-7 to 10-2. There are quite a few games that we could lose, but probably just one where we’ll be a double digit underdog
It’s a really weird schedule next season because I could honestly see anywhere from 5-7 to 10-2. There are quite a few games that we could lose, but probably just one where we’ll be a double digit underdog
Oh, no chance. It’s just flat out impossible for the defense to do anything other than take a step back, and we really didn’t do anything to upgrade the offense this offseason. We’re all holding out collective breath that KT or whoever Joe puts in there at QB this year can make better reads than Nick, but that’s just blind hope at this point
I really would’ve thought the mark would have been somewhere around 7 wins, but there does seem to be a recurring theme of outsiders being more impressed with our chances next year than the MSU fan base
I really would’ve thought the mark would have been somewhere around 7 wins, but there does seem to be a recurring theme of outsiders being more impressed with our chances next year than the MSU fan base
Linebacker better just because another year of experience. Corners, better. Offensive tackles, better. WR's better. RBs will be a push. QB I think is likely to be better. Interior offensive line a push probably. Safety a step back, DT a step back, I think push on the edge rushers. So several positions we will be better, but we have a thin spread from floor to ceiling, which I think is 7-9 and likely 8.
The schedule this year is way easier. 8 wins should be the expectation with this team. 4 nonconference wins, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Arkansas is atrocious, Ole Miss will be historically bad, Kentucky loses all of their production on defense and the only good offensive player on their team, and Tennessee is still going to be the Tennnessee of the past decade and a half. By the way, we have beaten Texas A&M five years in a row and Auburn 3 of the past 5. LSU still sucks on offense and plays at Davis Wade with Ed as their head coach. If you back up the money truck on that under line you’re playing with fire. Joe has proven that he can 17 up a good thing though, so who knows. I would not touch the line.
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Floor 5, ceiling 7. I like our defense minus D-tackles. But hard to replace 3 impact players. I think our O-line should be solid. Not many SEC caliber players at the skill positions except for Hill and Guidry.
The floor is five for sure, but to say the ceiling is 7 is just crazy talk. We play a lot of mediocre football teams this year.
And speaking of that, we heard the excuse that we didn't sign all our scholarships because we were going to pick up some grad transfers. So far, of the ones we've gone after, we haven't come close to getting any.
The ceiling is Not 8. The over/under is 8 from people that do this for a living and make hundreds of millions of dollars off of people thinking something is a sure bet. I mean we just beat Auburn and A&M this year and play LSU at home. Do you really think we can’t pull some of those games out? I mean maybe we completely bottom out, but we still have a lot of talent on our roster. If we just have average qb play we should be fighting to get over the 8 or 9 win mark. The million dollar question is will KT be at least average?
1. This isn't true. It's close - we've won four out of the last five - but it's not accurate.
2. Past performance does not predict future results.
If you back the money truck up, then the bad scenario is that we end up with 9 regular season wins? That doesn't seem terrible.
Guess it depends on what you mean by backing the money truck up, but if that over/under is actually available in Mississippi, I will probably make the biggest individual bet of my life on it. That won't be huge (basically equivalent of "what would I pay to guarantee a nine win regular season" so I'll be fine if it's a loser), but seems like a good bet to go big on for your personal definition of big.
It’s that last sentence that worries me. MSU fans can argue all day about whether Joe underachieved last year or not, but the thing that can’t be argued is that we lost a minimum of 3 games that we should’ve won.
I’m confident that Joe’s a guy that will consistently take care of business against weak competition, but there’s reason to be nervous any time the line is inside 10 pts
I’m confident that Joe’s a guy that will consistently take care of business against weak competition, but there’s reason to be nervous any time the line is inside 10 pts
I didn’t say they were predicting us to win 8 games. I said they set the o/u at 8 games. You are correct, they want equal action for the most part, but not always. If they think they have an edge they will let it get one sided. It’s not as simple as just adjusting the line to make it even. They also pay attention to who puts money on what spreads.
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I’ve never understood the difference. I mean, maybe the exact individual that put his stamp of approval on the line doesn’t think we’ll win 8 games, but if your goal is to create a scenario where half of America will bet one way while the other half bets the opposite, it stands to reason that you’d create the line based on the most likely outcome
It's an oversimplified myth that is constantly repeated as gospel. Setting a line that draws 50% of the money on each side is a pipe dream and not actually what they're trying to do.
The guys setting the lines are trying to gauge the perception of the betting public, which is different than trying to predict the likely outcome. The betting public isn't always that bright....and Vegas doesn't always set the right line for betting purposes, either.
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