Seeds for NCAA
- Thread starter CatCoach
- Start date
If you think a freestyle match when 1 of the guys was a 2nd year college guy NCAA finalist and the other was a high school junior has any meaning for a matchup today, go right ahead.
Mitchell may destroy Lockett, but it’s silly to act like that match has much bearing.
Gotcha. Thought you meant at the time of their meeting at OTT.
I just ran the seeding matrix at 165 for at least the top 6 wrestlers...running the entire bracket may alter it somewhat, but it's probably pretty close for a quick dipstick check.
1) Mesenbrink
2) Lockett
3) Blaze or Caliendo
4) Blaze or Caliendo
5) Bianchi
6) Ruiz
Blaze and Caliendo scored out the same on the seeding matrix, so it's going to come down to whether the committee values the h2h or if they value the ranking and RPI more.
1) Mesenbrink
2) Lockett
3) Blaze or Caliendo
4) Blaze or Caliendo
5) Bianchi
6) Ruiz
Blaze and Caliendo scored out the same on the seeding matrix, so it's going to come down to whether the committee values the h2h or if they value the ranking and RPI more.
No way Lockett is the two
Did you watch Jax and larkin match how did that go.
Im not saying Drake can go with him but so far the only one has been Seidel.
I can’t wait to see this match. I bet he gasses him out in the second period.
I think coaches can argue if within 2 points or 2 seeds but don't quote me on that the only criteria Jax is going to miss is rpi.
He will be 1 in coaches 100 win % conf champ. My guess is he will get no less than 2
Coach speak, obviously there was more going on “in the room” that made Brands make that decision. I’m tired of losing and not overly opposed to a coaching change but I’ve also been a coach and realize there’s crap that outsiders don’t know. I applaud Brands if he made the tough decision but the right one for what he believes is right for the program.
I’d be very surprised if he goes from 4 to 1 in the coaches ranking by beating the 7. It would be very atypical and I think that there’s a better chance that he gets 3rd in the final coaches rank.
That would be suck. Best bracket has two of those guys in one half and two in the other. Any one of those four should have to go through another to make the final. Assuming Angelo didn’t take “losses” on his way to 8th on the backside?
I want to see the guy at the weight who doesn't stop attacking against the guy who picks his spots. I want to see how tired Mitchell can get him . Some Oklahoma st fans say Dee is acting and is trying to bait guys. I say he gasses
His name is Knee Lockett since he spends over half the match on both knees
Fans in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.
Flashback to Marinelli’s path a couple years…his side of the brackets were loaded.
I just don't think MM cares whether Lockett is on his knees or feet as he rinses and repeats takedowns.
Not saying that I disagree at all, but based on the matrix scoring that’s how it flushed out.
He’s ranked 2nd in the coaches, has more Tier 1/Tier 2 wins than anyone else in the 2-6 seed range (even if the rest of the schedule is light), and he’s on equal footing or better than about everyone else in that group on common opponents record and conf. finish. The only negatives is that he didn’t have enough matches to qualify for RPI and he’s got a H2H loss against Caliendo (split) and Ruiz.
There are 3 guys in the group behind him that I believe will be within 15 points which means the seed will be challenged. I just don’t know which way it will swing. I’ll be honest though, I think every wrestler in the top 8 would rather be seeded 2, 3, 6, or 7 than 4 or 5. The bottom half of the bracket will be a bloodbath but Mesenbrink is a damned buzz saw.
Dee seems to fade late. MM will chew him up and spit him out in the 3rd with his pace.
Messenbrink don't need any bait. He wouldn't need to act very long.
Sidun is coming in so I expect a change in tune coming soon with the knee wrestling
Larkin's strength, length and ability to scramble kept him from getting teched. I couldn't believe the intensity level of the scrambling in that match. Seidel is interesting, he has a big motor, and apparently can take Jax down with ease and is the only guy who has kept it close with Jax so far.
Drake really needs to be opposite of Davino or Blaze in the 1/4s, otherwise I don't like his chances to advance.
Agree. I certainly don't like the knee(s) on the mat strategy, boring most of the time. But also get tired of guys whining about. Don't like it, tell your guy to strategize and get takedowns anyway. MM will do it in a hurry against Lockett. Lockett will be lucky to ONLY stay on his knees.
He won't make it out of the second. He will quit unless Taylor throws every Brick he's got.
I bet I was going from the coaches rankings from late February. I'll adjust and see if that changes anything.
There was a new set of coaches rankings yesterday but it wasn't published. Also, a new RPI. Last year the NCAA released these rankings when they announced the at large bids. This year they didn't so it makes it almost impossible to calculate the seeding criteria.
I found them. They were released, but they did it quietly. The seeding committee is leaning on Intermat for their data and Intermat mysteriously did an update on the RPI and their rankings that corresponded with the at-large release almost to the minute. I used those to run the numbers again.
Using the updated rankings and RPI (Lockett finally had enough matches to qualify), I've run the seeding matrix again at 165. Once again, I didn't run it for the entirety of the bracket, just for the people that I think will be in the running for the top 6 seeds.
It came out like this:
1) Mesenbrink
2) Blaze
3) Caliendo
4) Lockett
5) Ruiz or Bianchi (likely Ruiz due to Big 12 Championship)
6) Ruiz or Bianchi
With the new rankings, I think I'm going to expand out the guys I was looking at just to see if it makes and adjustments to the 5/6 lines. I'll add Araujo, Brignola, and Downey and see if it tweaks anything, but I think the first 4 are pretty close.
It came out like this:
1) Mesenbrink
2) Blaze
3) Caliendo
4) Lockett
5) Ruiz or Bianchi (likely Ruiz due to Big 12 Championship)
6) Ruiz or Bianchi
With the new rankings, I think I'm going to expand out the guys I was looking at just to see if it makes and adjustments to the 5/6 lines. I'll add Araujo, Brignola, and Downey and see if it tweaks anything, but I think the first 4 are pretty close.
Intermat? Or do you mean wrestlestat?
And where are these new coaches rankings and new RPI they quietly released.
Also the RPI they release never matches wrestlestat RPI. They're definitely different
I don't see Drake getting to the finals regardless, so the only benefit to him winning QF match is that it guarantees his AA. But he can score just as many points on the backside if he loses in QF. He did look good at B1G, so you never know.
It will be more apathy I think, like watching Bartlett for 5 years, you hope they win, but dislike the style.
Yeah, I agree. Now that my switch has flipped to wanting a regime change, I tend to no longer give him the benefit of the doubt on incidents that cost us team points--whether it be Bo, Endene, Williams, etc. That's not totally fair, because who knows the real details? Easy to armchair QB. It's really not necessary to have a POV on every decision he makes anyway. He's paid to put points on the board, and I ultimately don't care how he does it.
The path to him making finals/winning would be getting Blaze in quarters and winning, Byrd getting Jax in quarters and somehow winning, beating Byrd in the semis, winning in finals vs Davino or whoever. Extremely unlikely (like 1% or less), but that’s the path. Each element for Drake in that scenario isn’t outlandish, but it relies on the seeding to be setup that way, Byrd beating Jax, and for all of it to go right.
What are the odds that Max, Angelo and Aedon are all on the bottom half? Wait for it.
I'd say 80%, there is always 1-2 brackets they fudge up. Angelo's low match count/B10 MFF is going to still bite him.