Would be terrible if this is Drakes seed. Would hope this isn’t how the seeds play out; but Nomad is normally good with his projections. Hope he can get 5 or 8.
Seeds for NCAA
- Thread starter CatCoach
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Would be terrible if this is Drakes seed. Would hope this isn’t how the seeds play out; but Nomad is normally good with his projections. Hope he can get 5 or 8.
I don't know how they will seed 133, but imo Drake needs to avoid Jax and Siedel to have a shot at the finals. If he runs into either in the quarters I can't see him beating either. He has a punchers chance against Blaze/Davino. Talent wise I say Jax 1, Siedel 2, Davino 3, Blaze 4 would be the proper seeding, but it won't go that way. Larkin at 5, Drake 6, and Byrd 7 imo.
I really want to see how 184 is seeded. Obviously Welsh Sinclair McEnelly will go 1-3 but where does Angelo fall to?
Nomad was guessing on coaches rank between Blaze and Jax. It’s entirely possible Jax is the 2 from the matrix and also entirely possible he gets moved to the 2 from the committee if he’s not already there from the matrix.
My thoughts as well. He obviously loses the 10 points for RPI but if he is higher in the coaches rank than Blaze I think he at least gets the 2. He has higher win percent, higher conference finish. That's 25% right there. They would split H2H and common opponents. It would just come down to QW's and how they split it.
I really only want Drake to avoid Jax. I could live with Seidel but that seems pretty unlikely since he should be locked in at the 4 and Larkin seems locked in at the 5.
The crazy thing is if you rewatch the Jax/Drake match the positions were super competitive for the first few minutes. It was a game of inches and those inches just ended up being points for Jax every time. Not saying he will win but the match could look very different next time. Or Jax just could win those positions again and again.
The crazy thing is if you rewatch the Jax/Drake match the positions were super competitive for the first few minutes. It was a game of inches and those inches just ended up being points for Jax every time. Not saying he will win but the match could look very different next time. Or Jax just could win those positions again and again.
I can see him anywhere from 5-10. Rocco is historically lucky so I would not be surprised to see Max Sinclair and Angelo all on the bottom of the bracket.
Drake's lack of mat skills and scrambling makes it very difficult for him to match up with Jax, and to a lesser extent Seidel and Larkin.
He can win a TD match with Davino or Blaze but not sure if those matches happen on the front side.
I still think it should be either Jax/Davino or vice versa with Seidel and Blaze in the 3/4 slots. But I don't have a vote
This bugged me all the way home from Big Tens. Or at least one of the issues. Jax may very well be the #1, but only came out in the second half of the season. We punish Angelo because of injury among others and they don't get the matches. Shouldn't the standard for number of matches wrestled apply to Jax as well before we annoint him the 1 seed? Especially a weight class with so many deserving wrestlers. It's like there is a recency bias and we forgot there is a full season. He has looked great, OW at Big 12's and all, but where in the criteria is that going to hit him? RPI? Seems like if he were at the Big Tens conference tourney he would have been about the 8 seed based on criteria, but NCAA's he gets a free pass.
I'm feeling #4 would be reasonable seeds for Jax, behind Siedel, Davino, Blaze in whatever order. Has to go in front of Larkin at 5. But full season should be rewarded. Don't really care, just that we keep consistent with who we punish for not wrestling full seasons, just like Angelo, even though he did wrestle, missed due to injury, not because he wasn't even enrolled in college. I think what you put is probably more likely with what they will do.
It should be and I want it to be but the NCAA seeds just never seem to allow 1-3 to be all one conference or from the BIGS. They will find a way that wont make any sense to plant another conference winner in that 3 seed. Wait for it.
Its like they have it out against favoring the BIGTEN too much in an attempt to level out the other conferences. Happens every year in multiple weights. Guys really do benefit by not being in the meat grinder.
Not sure who they could Lockett? His loss to Ruiz hurts because Blaze beat Ruiz
Jax has H2H over Seidel, he ain't getting seeded behind him.
Not happening Caliendo should get the 2/3 with Blaze
It's also not just a straight "wins against the field" number. It's more complex than that.
Each win is assigned a tier based on the winning record of that wrestler. Tier 1 is worth 6 pts, Tier 2 is worth 4.5, Tier 3 is worth 3, Tier 4 is worth 2, Tier 5 is worth 1, and Tier 6 is worth 0.5. Additionally, only one win against a wrestler counts...so if wrestler a beats wrestler b 3 times, they only get credit for 1 of those wins in the QW's category.
I'll try to run the numbers in a bit.
Nomad knows the tiers no doubt he ran it that way
Yes. But isn't that Seidel's only loss? And my logic is really saying that you shouldn't punish Seidel or anyone else for that matter that wrestled the full season. I agree, they will probably put Jax 1, but we will see if they use that same criteria throughout the brackets. If history is our guide, I would guess no, because they seem to change the criteria/logic. Maybe the numbers will be all they go by this time? Wish they would post the numbers and calculations.
Im not counting Drake out of any match. He is just that good and wrestles smart.
Not saying Jax will get the 1. So that will be his "punishment" for not wrestling the entire season/getting an allocation.
Both are conference champs and there's a H2H. So no way they will seed Seidel ahead of Jax.
I am not arguing with your rationale. Its spot on. I don't claim it to be fact, just know it will end up being true. They will undeservedly throw Ruiz or Hepner in the 3 and will makes no sense to anyone. Like I said they will go out of their way to actively be over fair to the other conference champions because they have a bias that they cant bunch up that many BIG wrestlers. They will throw a wrench in it to thin that out. Hope I am wrong for Mikey sake but watch.
This is an interesting observation. I checked the brackets going back 4 seasons and the top 3 seeds being from the same conference happened just 3 times out of 40 brackets. It also just so happens that all 3 times it was the 141 weight class in 2022, 2024 and 2025.
VV didn’t get an at large. His “effort” and never say die attitude will be netting us zero points at Nationals.
Unless he was in the 32/33 match (which I actually was hoping for), he would've been netting us zero even if he did get an at large bid.
Stating the obvious, but I think Williams would have qualified. What is this "more fight" BS?
I just ran it and mine came out exactly the same around quality wins. The difference between 15-5 for Blaze vs. 10-10 is very thin. It's literally the 4-2 win Blaze picked up over Nicco Ruiz at the CKLV.
Yep and that puts lockett the 4/5 probably with Ruiz. I want to see Mitchell vs Lockett.
We’ve seen that and it wasn’t pretty. Everyone is getting at minimum majored against Mitchell, unless Caliendo can hold one off in the finals.
Maybe, but I’m not putting too much stock into a match against a high school junior.
22 and 20 respectively age wise. Lockett wasn’t a normal junior.
MM majors Lockett minimum but more likely a totally drained Lockett gets tech falled in the 3rd.