So here is a breakdown of the scenarios for the SECW with 4 weeks left.
Obviously, Auburn is toast, so we can exclude them.
Arkansas can win the west in a wild scenario. They have to win out. LSU and TAMU have to lose at least one more time and Bama has to lose today and lose to either us or UA.
LSU and OM have the only straight paths from here out. Either one of them wins out, they take the division. I do think OM is out of the CFP picture, though... since they lost big to Memphis and Florida (though UF is legit... getting beat pretty badly by Memphis was a black eye).
Bama will need to win out and will need OM to lose one more time.
We have to win out. That puts us with the tiebreaker over OM and Bama. We will also need LSU to lose 2 more times. TAMU will also have to lose one more time.
I probably missed something, but those are the scenarios so far.
I know I've said this, but the only thing I don't want is for OM to have a chance to play for the West in Starkville. Granted, we were technically playing for the west on their turf last year (and hoping for a Bama loss), but that just adds a complicated wrinkle to the game that I don't want. The home team has won all but twice since '98, so history shows we have at least a good chance to take home the egg this year, but I want OM to have at least one more loss before we play them.
Obviously, Auburn is toast, so we can exclude them.
Arkansas can win the west in a wild scenario. They have to win out. LSU and TAMU have to lose at least one more time and Bama has to lose today and lose to either us or UA.
LSU and OM have the only straight paths from here out. Either one of them wins out, they take the division. I do think OM is out of the CFP picture, though... since they lost big to Memphis and Florida (though UF is legit... getting beat pretty badly by Memphis was a black eye).
Bama will need to win out and will need OM to lose one more time.
We have to win out. That puts us with the tiebreaker over OM and Bama. We will also need LSU to lose 2 more times. TAMU will also have to lose one more time.
I probably missed something, but those are the scenarios so far.
I know I've said this, but the only thing I don't want is for OM to have a chance to play for the West in Starkville. Granted, we were technically playing for the west on their turf last year (and hoping for a Bama loss), but that just adds a complicated wrinkle to the game that I don't want. The home team has won all but twice since '98, so history shows we have at least a good chance to take home the egg this year, but I want OM to have at least one more loss before we play them.
