This is a really difficult year to try and predict our SEC record because if we are being honest, our OOC schedule has been so bad it's hard to gauge how good (or not) we really might be. Our best win at this point is over Dayton, who is 6-7 with losses to Hofstra, Penn and Duquesne, so it's not like we beat Archie Miller's Dayton teams of the recent past. Stephen F Austin is looking like a more decent win than Dayton at this point. The rest of them? They're garbage wins. That's better than garbage losses or good losses or moral victories, but they are garbage wins.
The league overall is interesting too. With UK not being their usual nationally elite team and other teams being improved over recent years, it has allowed for things to be bunched up at the top end of the conference. I won't be surprised if the league winner has five losses or more with a handful of teams still in contention in the last 2-3 games.
Our offensive struggles have me really worried. Are we going to become a better shooting three point shooting team when we play faster, longer, more athletic defenses? I guess that's possible but more likely to me is we are probably going to stay within range of how we've shot it thus far. I don't know that the same can be said for two point shots, where we have shot it a nearly a 60% clip in the non-conference. That seems unsustainable in the long haul. If you buy into the metrics that say we have an upper tier defense, maybe that keeps us in some games and allows us to win some that we aren't expecting. I'm not sold on the defense not just being a function of the schedule. The next two weeks should answer that question, with Arkansas, Florida, and Ole Miss all having looked like potent offenses.
Unfortunately I think we are going to take some lumps. I'm guessing 6-12 and hate every second of it. Hopefully we find a stroke from downtown and hopefully our defense is truly legit, and we can push for .500. My very meager goal is to not be playing on Wednesday night in St. Louis this year. (Thread hijack: Why the hell are we playing the SEC Tournament in St. Louis? ) If we can somehow get/keep an RPI in the mid 60s, then maybe 6-10 gets us in the NIT.
Out of the blue guesses on the W/L breakdown:
W: Vandy, Mizzou, at USC, at Vandy, Ole Miss, USC
L: Ark, at Ole Miss, at Florida, Auburn, at Bama, at UK, UGA, Bama, at Mizzou, at A&M, UT, at LSU
Can't wait to be ridiculed when pull off the Warren Nolan prediction of 10-8.
The league overall is interesting too. With UK not being their usual nationally elite team and other teams being improved over recent years, it has allowed for things to be bunched up at the top end of the conference. I won't be surprised if the league winner has five losses or more with a handful of teams still in contention in the last 2-3 games.
Our offensive struggles have me really worried. Are we going to become a better shooting three point shooting team when we play faster, longer, more athletic defenses? I guess that's possible but more likely to me is we are probably going to stay within range of how we've shot it thus far. I don't know that the same can be said for two point shots, where we have shot it a nearly a 60% clip in the non-conference. That seems unsustainable in the long haul. If you buy into the metrics that say we have an upper tier defense, maybe that keeps us in some games and allows us to win some that we aren't expecting. I'm not sold on the defense not just being a function of the schedule. The next two weeks should answer that question, with Arkansas, Florida, and Ole Miss all having looked like potent offenses.
Unfortunately I think we are going to take some lumps. I'm guessing 6-12 and hate every second of it. Hopefully we find a stroke from downtown and hopefully our defense is truly legit, and we can push for .500. My very meager goal is to not be playing on Wednesday night in St. Louis this year. (Thread hijack: Why the hell are we playing the SEC Tournament in St. Louis? ) If we can somehow get/keep an RPI in the mid 60s, then maybe 6-10 gets us in the NIT.
Out of the blue guesses on the W/L breakdown:
W: Vandy, Mizzou, at USC, at Vandy, Ole Miss, USC
L: Ark, at Ole Miss, at Florida, Auburn, at Bama, at UK, UGA, Bama, at Mizzou, at A&M, UT, at LSU
Can't wait to be ridiculed when pull off the Warren Nolan prediction of 10-8.
