Vanderbilt Commodores
Head Coach: Bryce Drew [8-7 (.533) in 1st season at Vandy, 132-57 (.698) overall as head coach]
Record: 8-7 (6-1 at home, 2-1 in SEC)
Schedule
^11/11/16 vs Marquette L, 71-95
11/15/16 BELMONT W, 80-66
+11/18/16 NORFOLK STATE W, 75-52
11/21/16 BUCKNELL L, 72-75
#11/24/16 vs Butler L, 66-76
#11/25/16 vs Santa Clara W, 76-66
11/29/16 TENNESSEE STATE W, 83-59
%12/03/16 vs Minnesota L, 52-56
12/06/16 HIGH POINT W, 90-63
12/08/16 at Middle Tennessee L, 48-71
12/17/16 CHATTANOOGA W, 76-74
12/21/16 at Dayton L, 63-68
*12/29/16 at LSU W, 96-89
*01/04/17 AUBURN W, 80-61
*01/07/17 at Alabama L, 56-59
^ = Veterans Classic presented by Northwestern Mutual, Annapolis, Md.
+ = Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational, Nashville, Tenn.
# = Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational, Las Vegas, Nev.
% = Sanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, S.D.
* = Conference game
Game Information
01/10/17 Kentucky @ Vanderbilt, Memorial Gymnasium, Nashville, TN, 7 pm EST, TV: ESPN
Probable Starters
F #3 Luke Kornet 7-1 250 Sr, 12.7pts, 6.3reb, 1.3ast, 2.1blks* .327 3fg
F #11 Jeff Roberson 6-6 224 Jr, 9.7pts, 7.2reb*, 2.1ast, .293 3fg
G #5 Matthew Fisher-Davis 6-5 185 Jr, 16.9pts*, 3.5reb, 1.2ast, .421 3fg
G #1 Payton Willis 6-4 182 Fr, 7.3pts, 2.4reb, 2.9ast, .390 3fg
G #13 Riley LaChance 6-2 192 Jr, 9.6pts, 3.1reb, 4.2ast*, .582 3fg*
Key Reserves
G #24 Nolan Cressler 6-4 210 Sr, 6.5pts, 3.5reb, 1.1ast, .519 3fg
G #2 Joe Toye 6-7 208 So, 4.7pts, 2.4reb, 1.1ast, .316 3fg
C #12 Djery Baptiste 6-10 240 Fr, 2.3pts, 1.9reb, no 3pt threat
F #15 Clevon Brown 6-8 219 Fr, 1.9pts, 1.6reb, .385 3fg
* = category team leader
Team Stats
Points per game 72.3
Points allowed 68.7
Scoring margin +3.6
Field goal pct .432
FG% allowed .425
3-point FG pct .403
3pt FG% allowed .365
Free throw pct .774
Rebounds per game 35.7
Rebounds allowed 33.7
Rebounding margin +2.0
Assists per game 14.5
Turnovers per game 13.4
Turnovers forced 11.6
Turnover margin -1.8
Assist/turnover ratio 1.1
Steals per game 4.5
Blocks per game 3.9
KenPom Analysis (#66 rating overall)
Best Stats
#12 in Free throw shooting (77.4%)
#13 in 3pt shooting (40.3%)
#58 in overall offensive efficiency
#66 in defensive rebounding
Worst Stats
#322 in in forcing steals (6.6% of possessions)
#283 in 2pt% (45.6%)
#250 in 3pt% defense (allowing 36.5%)
#243 in getting shots blocked
Analysis
Vanderbilt faces Kentucky in Memorial Gym for the first time since 1999 without Kevin Stallings as the head coach. Bryce Drew, a guy more well known for one shot in the NCAAT (buzzer beater for Valparaiso over Ole Miss) than for his coaching, takes over for the Commodores with a team of Veterans leftover from Stallings. Five of Vandy's top 6 producers are either juniors or seniors. But the first season under Drew has been a bit rocky thus far. Vanderbilt comes into this matchup with Kentucky sporting an 8-7 record but with 2 wins in the SEC. They've played a fairly tough schedule to this point, with 4 games against KenPom top 50 (going 0-4) and a total of 8 against the KenPom top 100 (going 1-7). Their best win on the season according to rating is a 76-74 home win over Chattanooga, currently rated #59. Their worst loss was a 75-72 home loss to Bucknell (rated #97 according to KenPom). This Vanderbilt team relies heavily on the 3pt shot, with 42.3% of their total points coming from beyond the arc, making them the 7th most reliant on the 3pt shot in the country.
The best scorer on the team plays the 3 spot for Commodores, Matthew Fisher-Davis, the 6-5 185lb junior wing who scores 16.9 points per game while shooting 42.1% from 3pt range with 45 made threes on the season. The scouting for UK will definitely begin with making Davis put the ball on the floor. The point guard for the Commodores this season is Riley LaChance, the 6-2 192lb Junior who averages 9.6 points and 4.2 assists while shooting a team best percentage 58.2% from 3pt range. He's made 32 threes on the season himself and actually shoots better outside the arc than inside. LaChance has struggled at times this season and you could make the case, looking at LaChance's game by game stats that the team often goes as he does. The shooting guard for Vandy has been Payton Wills for most of the season, though Nolan Cressler has 4 starts. Wills is a 6-4 182lb Freshman averaging 7.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and shooting 39.0% from 3pt range. He's also the guy who steps over to the point guard position when LaChance is out of the game.
In the frontcourt, the Commodores start 2 guys UK fans know well. The top interior scorer for Vandy is Luke Kornet, the 7-1 250lb senior forward/center who averages 12.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and leading the team with 2.1 blocks per games. He also is a capable shooter from distance, although his shooting percentage is down a bit this season- he's shooting 32.7% from 3pt range this season. Kornet has been known more as a perimeter big man than an inside force since he;s been at Vanderbilt. Coach Drew has tried to keep Kornet more in the paint this season, but he still takes about 1/3 of his shots from distance. Joining Kornet in the frontcourt is Jeff Roberson, a 6-6 224 Junior who is averaging 9.7pts, leading the team with 7.2 rebounds per game, 2.1 assists, while shooting 29.3% from beyond the arc. Though Roberson is shooting much more poorly from 3pt range this season, he's still taking the 2nd most 3-pointers on the team. In his 3 SEC games, he's only scored 6, 5, and 4 points for an average of 5 points per game in SEC play.
From the bench, the guy getting the most minutes is guard Nolan Cressler, a 6-4 210lb senior who averages 6.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and shooting the 3 at 51.9%. He's a guy who is not limited to 3 point shooting, though, with nearly 80% of his made field goals coming inside the arc. He's pretty good at crashing the boards for a guard. He plays the 2 and the 3. The next most critical player is sophomore guard Joe Toye, who stands 6-7 and weighs in at 208lbs. He's averaging 4.7 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.1 assists while shooting 31.6% from 3pt range. He's averaging 15.3 minutes per game. He plays exclusively at the 3 spot when he's in the game and the other guys shift around him. The other 2 bench players are center Djery Baptiste, a 6-10 240lb Freshman who plays under 10 minutes per game and forward Clevon Brown, a 6-8 219lb Freshman who hasn't contributed much and only gets 8.6 minutes per game.
When you look at the defensive end of the floor for Vandy, it's hard to nail down one particular defense they prefer. Actually, that could be part of their problem this season. They don't have a defensive identity. They play some man to man when they can but they also mix in some zone as needed. They are rated #92 in defensive efficiency by kenpom and they've struggled in multiple games defending. They allowed 95 points to Marquette in their season opener. They just allowed 89 points to LSU on December 29, though they managed to win that game 96-89. They've also struggled to score for stretches of different games, only scoring 52 against Minnesota, 48 against Middle Tennessee, and only managing 56 in a loss at Alabama on Saturday. But they're playing at home, so I expect them to make shots.
The key against this Vandy team is to make them put the ball on the floor and drive to the basket. If they are given open threes, they will make them at home, especially against UK and in front of a sell-out crowd. I expect the Cats to apply ball pressure all over the floor, making the Commodores take tough twos. The biggest problem for Vandy in this game is the same issue other teams have had, and that is containing UK's penetration. Riley has no Chance (pardon the pun) of staying in front of De'Aaron Fox and the Commodores in general will struggle with UK's team speed. The atmosphere and gym configuration will take a little bit of time to adjust to for UK's young players, but I'm sure they've been warned. The start of this game will be critical for Vandy. If they want to pull the upset, they must start the game very well. If the Cats come out hot and playing well, Vandy could wilt, saying "here we go again." The only way Vandy wins this game is by making a significant number of threes, more than the 10 makes they average per game. Kenpom predicts an 85-74 win for UK. I think the Cats continue the improved defense and come out with a comfortable win.
Prediction: Kentucky 86 Vandy 70
Head Coach: Bryce Drew [8-7 (.533) in 1st season at Vandy, 132-57 (.698) overall as head coach]
Record: 8-7 (6-1 at home, 2-1 in SEC)
Schedule
^11/11/16 vs Marquette L, 71-95
11/15/16 BELMONT W, 80-66
+11/18/16 NORFOLK STATE W, 75-52
11/21/16 BUCKNELL L, 72-75
#11/24/16 vs Butler L, 66-76
#11/25/16 vs Santa Clara W, 76-66
11/29/16 TENNESSEE STATE W, 83-59
%12/03/16 vs Minnesota L, 52-56
12/06/16 HIGH POINT W, 90-63
12/08/16 at Middle Tennessee L, 48-71
12/17/16 CHATTANOOGA W, 76-74
12/21/16 at Dayton L, 63-68
*12/29/16 at LSU W, 96-89
*01/04/17 AUBURN W, 80-61
*01/07/17 at Alabama L, 56-59
^ = Veterans Classic presented by Northwestern Mutual, Annapolis, Md.
+ = Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational, Nashville, Tenn.
# = Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational, Las Vegas, Nev.
% = Sanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, S.D.
* = Conference game
Game Information
01/10/17 Kentucky @ Vanderbilt, Memorial Gymnasium, Nashville, TN, 7 pm EST, TV: ESPN
Probable Starters
F #3 Luke Kornet 7-1 250 Sr, 12.7pts, 6.3reb, 1.3ast, 2.1blks* .327 3fg
F #11 Jeff Roberson 6-6 224 Jr, 9.7pts, 7.2reb*, 2.1ast, .293 3fg
G #5 Matthew Fisher-Davis 6-5 185 Jr, 16.9pts*, 3.5reb, 1.2ast, .421 3fg
G #1 Payton Willis 6-4 182 Fr, 7.3pts, 2.4reb, 2.9ast, .390 3fg
G #13 Riley LaChance 6-2 192 Jr, 9.6pts, 3.1reb, 4.2ast*, .582 3fg*
Key Reserves
G #24 Nolan Cressler 6-4 210 Sr, 6.5pts, 3.5reb, 1.1ast, .519 3fg
G #2 Joe Toye 6-7 208 So, 4.7pts, 2.4reb, 1.1ast, .316 3fg
C #12 Djery Baptiste 6-10 240 Fr, 2.3pts, 1.9reb, no 3pt threat
F #15 Clevon Brown 6-8 219 Fr, 1.9pts, 1.6reb, .385 3fg
* = category team leader
Team Stats
Points per game 72.3
Points allowed 68.7
Scoring margin +3.6
Field goal pct .432
FG% allowed .425
3-point FG pct .403
3pt FG% allowed .365
Free throw pct .774
Rebounds per game 35.7
Rebounds allowed 33.7
Rebounding margin +2.0
Assists per game 14.5
Turnovers per game 13.4
Turnovers forced 11.6
Turnover margin -1.8
Assist/turnover ratio 1.1
Steals per game 4.5
Blocks per game 3.9
KenPom Analysis (#66 rating overall)
Best Stats
#12 in Free throw shooting (77.4%)
#13 in 3pt shooting (40.3%)
#58 in overall offensive efficiency
#66 in defensive rebounding
Worst Stats
#322 in in forcing steals (6.6% of possessions)
#283 in 2pt% (45.6%)
#250 in 3pt% defense (allowing 36.5%)
#243 in getting shots blocked
Analysis
Vanderbilt faces Kentucky in Memorial Gym for the first time since 1999 without Kevin Stallings as the head coach. Bryce Drew, a guy more well known for one shot in the NCAAT (buzzer beater for Valparaiso over Ole Miss) than for his coaching, takes over for the Commodores with a team of Veterans leftover from Stallings. Five of Vandy's top 6 producers are either juniors or seniors. But the first season under Drew has been a bit rocky thus far. Vanderbilt comes into this matchup with Kentucky sporting an 8-7 record but with 2 wins in the SEC. They've played a fairly tough schedule to this point, with 4 games against KenPom top 50 (going 0-4) and a total of 8 against the KenPom top 100 (going 1-7). Their best win on the season according to rating is a 76-74 home win over Chattanooga, currently rated #59. Their worst loss was a 75-72 home loss to Bucknell (rated #97 according to KenPom). This Vanderbilt team relies heavily on the 3pt shot, with 42.3% of their total points coming from beyond the arc, making them the 7th most reliant on the 3pt shot in the country.
The best scorer on the team plays the 3 spot for Commodores, Matthew Fisher-Davis, the 6-5 185lb junior wing who scores 16.9 points per game while shooting 42.1% from 3pt range with 45 made threes on the season. The scouting for UK will definitely begin with making Davis put the ball on the floor. The point guard for the Commodores this season is Riley LaChance, the 6-2 192lb Junior who averages 9.6 points and 4.2 assists while shooting a team best percentage 58.2% from 3pt range. He's made 32 threes on the season himself and actually shoots better outside the arc than inside. LaChance has struggled at times this season and you could make the case, looking at LaChance's game by game stats that the team often goes as he does. The shooting guard for Vandy has been Payton Wills for most of the season, though Nolan Cressler has 4 starts. Wills is a 6-4 182lb Freshman averaging 7.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and shooting 39.0% from 3pt range. He's also the guy who steps over to the point guard position when LaChance is out of the game.
In the frontcourt, the Commodores start 2 guys UK fans know well. The top interior scorer for Vandy is Luke Kornet, the 7-1 250lb senior forward/center who averages 12.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and leading the team with 2.1 blocks per games. He also is a capable shooter from distance, although his shooting percentage is down a bit this season- he's shooting 32.7% from 3pt range this season. Kornet has been known more as a perimeter big man than an inside force since he;s been at Vanderbilt. Coach Drew has tried to keep Kornet more in the paint this season, but he still takes about 1/3 of his shots from distance. Joining Kornet in the frontcourt is Jeff Roberson, a 6-6 224 Junior who is averaging 9.7pts, leading the team with 7.2 rebounds per game, 2.1 assists, while shooting 29.3% from beyond the arc. Though Roberson is shooting much more poorly from 3pt range this season, he's still taking the 2nd most 3-pointers on the team. In his 3 SEC games, he's only scored 6, 5, and 4 points for an average of 5 points per game in SEC play.
From the bench, the guy getting the most minutes is guard Nolan Cressler, a 6-4 210lb senior who averages 6.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and shooting the 3 at 51.9%. He's a guy who is not limited to 3 point shooting, though, with nearly 80% of his made field goals coming inside the arc. He's pretty good at crashing the boards for a guard. He plays the 2 and the 3. The next most critical player is sophomore guard Joe Toye, who stands 6-7 and weighs in at 208lbs. He's averaging 4.7 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.1 assists while shooting 31.6% from 3pt range. He's averaging 15.3 minutes per game. He plays exclusively at the 3 spot when he's in the game and the other guys shift around him. The other 2 bench players are center Djery Baptiste, a 6-10 240lb Freshman who plays under 10 minutes per game and forward Clevon Brown, a 6-8 219lb Freshman who hasn't contributed much and only gets 8.6 minutes per game.
When you look at the defensive end of the floor for Vandy, it's hard to nail down one particular defense they prefer. Actually, that could be part of their problem this season. They don't have a defensive identity. They play some man to man when they can but they also mix in some zone as needed. They are rated #92 in defensive efficiency by kenpom and they've struggled in multiple games defending. They allowed 95 points to Marquette in their season opener. They just allowed 89 points to LSU on December 29, though they managed to win that game 96-89. They've also struggled to score for stretches of different games, only scoring 52 against Minnesota, 48 against Middle Tennessee, and only managing 56 in a loss at Alabama on Saturday. But they're playing at home, so I expect them to make shots.
The key against this Vandy team is to make them put the ball on the floor and drive to the basket. If they are given open threes, they will make them at home, especially against UK and in front of a sell-out crowd. I expect the Cats to apply ball pressure all over the floor, making the Commodores take tough twos. The biggest problem for Vandy in this game is the same issue other teams have had, and that is containing UK's penetration. Riley has no Chance (pardon the pun) of staying in front of De'Aaron Fox and the Commodores in general will struggle with UK's team speed. The atmosphere and gym configuration will take a little bit of time to adjust to for UK's young players, but I'm sure they've been warned. The start of this game will be critical for Vandy. If they want to pull the upset, they must start the game very well. If the Cats come out hot and playing well, Vandy could wilt, saying "here we go again." The only way Vandy wins this game is by making a significant number of threes, more than the 10 makes they average per game. Kenpom predicts an 85-74 win for UK. I think the Cats continue the improved defense and come out with a comfortable win.
Prediction: Kentucky 86 Vandy 70
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