Scouting Oregon

[2D]

Since it's the bye week, we have plenty of time to look over film for Oregon. I'd like to hear what everyone is seeing when they watch Oregon. I re-watched the first half of last week's game against Wisconsin and here is what I found so far:

-Oregon seems somewhat undisciplined. A lot of false starts and offsides just in the first half. Kinnick noise comes into play here.
-Their OLine isn't as good as I thought it would be. Wisconsin was able to hurry Moore a lot more often than I expected, as well as Wisky's DLine just outright beating their man to get to the QB. Keep in mind this is a soft Wisconsin line.
-Not the greatest rush defense I've ever seen. Maybe they aren't used to that midwestern physicality? Wisky was able to run a lot more successfully than anticipated, and this is without a running QB like Mark.

Has anyone seen anything particularly worrisome? Anything else encouraging?

 

[eyesofhawk]

Wisconsin is ranked 26 in rush D. Considering their opponent is always running the ball with a lead, that isn't "soft".

An undisciplined game from Oregon vs Wiscy. Not their norm.

Particularly worrisome? Yes, one of the best teams in the country, with speed everywhere, and a dynamic QB.

But they're beatable. If Iowa can slow down their run and get good red zone production, it's W

 

[stanzithemanzi]

I think we need to keep their QB in the pocket. His scrambling ability and overall team speed worry me. Looking at like opponents, we've faired better overall, but their win @ a healthy Penn State when Penn State still had a lot to play for is probably the best win still that either program has on their resume.

 

[HawksRule73]

Oregon leads the country in plays of 20+ yards with 61 of them. That's typically what we're built to stop. Something is going to give there.

Phil has been doing ALOT of blitzing this year. Up until the Minnesota game, he was blitzing on about 40% of plays, whereas in the past, it was closer to 20%. I don't think he does that here. I think he plays a lot of quarter/quarter/half and keeps everything in front. This means Oregon probably doesn't get many chunk plays, but probably possesses the ball alot, so we'll either need to create a few turnovers or make sure we hold them to FGs instead of TDs in the redzone.

I think this Oregon team can be run on. I expect a heavy dose of run game, both with the RB as well as the QB. Of course, alot of that will be dictated by how well our D keeps them out of the endzone.

I expect this to be a one possession game in the end. Hopefully the Kinnick crowd can be the decisive factor.

 

[BunchofAholes]

Oregon leads the country in plays of 20+ yards with 61 of them. That's typically what we're built to stop. Something is going to give there.

Phil has been doing ALOT of blitzing this year. Up until the Minnesota game, he was blitzing on about 40% of plays, whereas in the past, it was closer to 20%. I don't think he does that here. I think he plays a lot of quarter/quarter/half and keeps everything in front. This means Oregon probably doesn't get many chunk plays, but probably possesses the ball alot, so we'll either need to create a few turnovers or make sure we hold them to FGs instead of TDs in the redzone.

I think this Oregon team can be run on. I expect a heavy dose of run game, both with the RB as well as the QB. Of course, alot of that will be dictated by how well our D keeps them out of the endzone.

I expect this to be a one possession game in the end. Hopefully the Kinnick crowd can be the decisive factor.

Blitzing on 40% of the plays? Where do you get this number?

 

[Myteamcanbeatupyourteam]

Mainly because of the weather, I'm not putting too much, if anything, into the Wisconsin result.

 

[2D]

I think we need to keep their QB in the pocket. His scrambling ability and overall team speed worry me. Looking at like opponents, we've faired better overall, but their win @ a healthy Penn State when Penn State still had a lot to play for is probably the best win still that either program has on their resume.

That style of backyard football is what killed us against Michigan State last year. Gotta make Moore uncomfortable. But if we give him time and allow him to sceamble, those WR will get open and start to shred us. I think limiting thier possessions is key, kind of like with Indiana. Long, sustained drives with the run game, keeping the ball out of thier hands.

 

[r_desihawk]

their qb and rbs are elite. at psu in a whiteout night game moore was preternaturally composed making incredible play after play under extreme duress, kind of tells me he elevates his play in difficult circumstances...i think he'll play his best in a place like Kinnick.
their D line is massive and still quick...i worry about how effective our OL will be against them. finally both teams have a bye week. let's see which team puts the extra week to better use. KF teams historically has been much better when opponents only have a week or less to prep.

 

[nu2u]

That style of backyard football is what killed us against Michigan State last year. Gotta make Moore uncomfortable. But if we give him time and allow him to sceamble, those WR will get open and start to shred us. I think limiting thier possessions is key, kind of like with Indiana. Long, sustained drives with the run game, keeping the ball out of thier hands.

Yep - contain Moore and up the pressure. Without pressure Iowa’s secondary coverage will breakdown. Without containment Oregon will be able to convert a broken play into a gain.

 

[paednoch23]

Here’s hoping the temps are in the teens.

 

[WeBeHerkin]

We played the dude who is supposedly the leader for the Heisman and made him look average. Bring on the next one!

 

[Hawkangler]

Here’s hoping the temps are in the teens.

Extended forecast is calling for mid 50's and cloudy.

 

[WeBeHerkin]

Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker was asked about what makes this offense so good, and his response was complimentary of the Oregon program in more ways than one.

"Yeah, obviously they can execute. They have some -- you start looking at their personnel, they've got probably about three or four backs that are really good backs and highly touted backs. The receivers are a couple of young freshmen and they're playing and they can run and they're fast. So you worry about that. The two tight ends are dynamic, and a big offensive line. They have the whole package. It's well funded, if I can put it that way.

"But they're very talented. The quarterback I did see -- I sat there on the sidelines watching Moore playing at Martin Luther King. He was at the same high school with Kenny Merriweather, so I've seen him before, and he's definitely a good player and he's going to be hard to defend, and the guys that he can throw it to are scary. You have to be fundamentally sound, you have to be prepared, and you have to play tough, physical -- we've got to play with 11 guys playing their best at all times," Parker said of Oregon and what makes them so talented.

 

[HawksRule73]

Blitzing on 40% of the plays? Where do you get this number?

Dochterman tracks the plays each game. That stat came from him on the Legends & Listeners podcast. And my original post should have indicated "pass plays".....I wasn't trying to indicate they were blitzing on 40% of all defensive plays.

 

[IowaCityLit]

If the early line im seeing is legit, Iowa is currently a 6.5 pt underdog.

Can’t stress enough how big a game this is for Iowa in terms of CFP implications but also to change the national narrative about Iowas brand and ceiling as a program.

 

[Stoopsbrother]

Feels like Iowa is going to steamroll the Ducks! Not sure why I feel that way, but I don't think Oregon will play a more physical team.

 

[uihawk82]

Since it's the bye week, we have plenty of time to look over film for Oregon. I'd like to hear what everyone is seeing when they watch Oregon. I re-watched the first half of last week's game against Wisconsin and here is what I found so far:

-Oregon seems somewhat undisciplined. A lot of false starts and offsides just in the first half. Kinnick noise comes into play here.
-Their OLine isn't as good as I thought it would be. Wisconsin was able to hurry Moore a lot more often than I expected, as well as Wisky's DLine just outright beating their man to get to the QB. Keep in mind this is a soft Wisconsin line.
-Not the greatest rush defense I've ever seen. Maybe they aren't used to that midwestern physicality? Wisky was able to run a lot more successfully than anticipated, and this is without a running QB like Mark.

Has anyone seen anything particularly worrisome? Anything else encouraging?

Against Indy, Iowa made them earn every yard except on the last TD and a few runs where our tackling was poor. Need to do the same thing with oregon. Have to get them in 2nd and 3rd and long. The two 4th down stops by the hawks against Indy are the same as fumble recoveries so need to plays like that, turnovers. So far the hawks have had very good success running the ball on everyone except the 1st qtr of the ISU game. Need to run it hard and pound them down to win the last third of the game, and I think our passing game will have some success.

The hawks can win this game but not in a shootout.

 

[oldxbbc]

Just read where Moore is the 10th rated power qb by CBS.Need to ramp up pressure on him AND contain. Oregon has quite a few line penalties on both sides-Kinnick needs to do “its thing”!

 

[BigOHawk1]

Very similar parallels to Indiana: very talented team, ranked, coming into an electric Kinnick for a 60-minute fistfight. Will the Ducks match Iowa physicality? Weather should be decent and still think Iowa is ticked it isn't ranked but take care of biz vs. the Ducks and the CFP poll is the only one that matters now and we'll get a sneak peak at that here soon...

Fun nugget....co-workers son is Oregon's starting LB (Jackson). Iowa recruited him out of Omaha, they are a confident bunch I gather but that team is walking into a LION's den come next weekend.

 

[Passing Is For COMMIES]

Frankly, I am not concerned about their offense at all - not because they aren't great, but because our defense is just as great. We have great players at all levels, and Phil Parker will have a good game plan. If we can hold IU to 20 points, we can hold Oregon to 24 points or less. Iowa will have to score 24+ points to win, plain and simple.

Oregon will use the same defensive strategy every good team has used for the past 6 seasons. Be heavier in the box to stop the run, force us to make plays through the air. They want the game to be decided by our WRs vs their DBs. Oregon currently ranks 33rd in the country in rush yards given up per game, at 124.6. Their defense ranks 24th in yards per carry at 3.5. With the talent Iowa has at OL, RB, and QB, we should be able to hit that 125 yard average/3.5 YPC mark - even against a stacked box. The key stat to watch is YPC. If the Hawks can get over the 4 YPC mark they can run their offense as usual, and probably get enough points to win straight up. If they're below that mark, they will either need to hit on some shot plays downfield, or get good field position/a TD on a turnover or return to pull off the win. Most likely we will still have to put up around 150 yards through the air though.

We don't really have the horses to stretch them through the air vertically, although we might be able to get them on a jump ball to VanderZee if the matchup justifies it. MG will throw to him in coverage if they have a smaller DB on him, as we saw on his TD against MN. The only other option is to hit them on a classic play action. Suck the LBs up with the fake, and hit Phillips or Wetjen on a crossing route up the middle, and let them use their speed to create a big play. But we do have options horizontally. This can be accomplished by using Wetjen in gadget plays, RB slip screens, and standard Slant or Bubble RPO's. If we can stretch them horizontally, we can force them to stay lighter in the box, and run the ball with great effect.

Tim Lester has been pretty creative with some of his gadget plays. He will need to be this week, and they'll have to work. This Iowa team is more consistent with past versions of the Hawks, the offense isn't that great, but it has a couple guys (Wetjen, MG, Moulten) that can create explosive plays. I've seen national talking heads say we can win if we get a Pick 6 or a return TD, I don't think we need those. We do need to create explosive plays though. When they stack the box early, attack horizontally and force them to lighten it up. Then go to your normal run heavy offense, and get an explosive play action shot play.

 

[BunchofAholes]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Oregon lose at least one. Iowa, USC and Washington will all give them a game.

 

[JerseyCityHawk]

Feels like Iowa is going to steamroll the Ducks! Not sure why I feel that way, but I don't think Oregon will play a more physical team.

I have that feeling too… something like 24-10 maybe?

 

[BunchofAholes]

Dochterman tracks the plays each game. That stat came from him on the Legends & Listeners podcast. And my original post should have indicated "pass plays".....I wasn't trying to indicate they were blitzing on 40% of all defensive plays.

Gotcha. Thanks! I would not have guessed Phil was blitzing 40% of the pass plays.

 

[Jonesy5960]

Like Indiana, Oregon is a very efficient offense, and their passing game is certainly that, but it's on the ground that Oregon wins games. They are a run first team that ranks second in the country at 6.3 yards per rush and ninth in total rush yards per game. Their backs are super talented and their oline is filled with maulers. Iowa's rushing attack averages 4.7 by comparison.

Their defense is nearly a mirror image of Iowa's. They are ranked 2nd nationally in total yards allowed per game, just above Iowa. They aren't quite as good as Iowa against the run, but are still very stout, giving up 3.5 per carry to rank 24th in that category and 33rd in rushing yards allowed per game at 133 yards allowed.

I think that Iowa has a shot in this game. Any turnovers would be huge . Given the strength of these 2 defenses, in particular vs the run, it should be a relatively low scoring affair that could easily go either way.

 

[Ironman39]

Wisconsin is ranked 26 in rush D. Considering their opponent is always running the ball with a lead, that isn't "soft".

An undisciplined game from Oregon vs Wiscy. Not their norm.

Particularly worrisome? Yes, one of the best teams in the country, with speed everywhere, and a dynamic QB.

But they're beatable. If Iowa can slow down their run and get good red zone production, it's W

Lol..................

 

[HawksRule73]

Gotcha. Thanks! I would not have guessed Phil was blitzing 40% of the pass plays.

I knew he had increased them this year, but I didn't realize either it was that high. I did a quick query and came up with this.....

2025 Iowa blitz rates:

• Against Rutgers (September 2025): The Hawkeyes blitzed on an "incredible 39% rate," applying pressure on 18 of 46 passing drop-backs, according to Pro Football Focus.
• Against UMass (September 2025): Iowa's defense sent a blitz on 42.9% of the Minutemen's dropbacks.
• Against Iowa State (September 2025): They blitzed on 40% of quarterback Rocco Becht's dropbacks.

 

[HawksRule73]

Like Indiana, Oregon is a very efficient offense, and their passing game is certainly that, but it's on the ground that Oregon wins games. They are a run first team that ranks second in the country at 6.3 yards per rush and ninth in total rush yards per game. Their backs are super talented and their oline is filled with maulers. Iowa's rushing attack averages 4.7 by comparison.

Their defense is nearly a mirror image of Iowa's. They are ranked 2nd nationally in total yards allowed per game, just above Iowa. They aren't quite as good as Iowa against the run, but are still very stout, giving up 3.5 per carry to rank 24th in that category and 33rd in yards allowed per game at 133 yards allowed.

I think that Iowa has a shot in this game. Any turnovers would be huge . Given the strength of these 2 defenses, in particular vs the run, it should be a relatively low scoring affair that could easily go either way.

I think the best unit on the field will be our OL. I do think we'll be able to run against them. Both Indiana and Wisconsin were able to run for about 120 yards against Oregon, at Autzen. I think we're a better rushing team than both of them. I think with Mark's ability in the run game, we have a chance to run for over 150 yards.

My prediction is 23-17, good guys.

 

[Iron Doc]

Frankly, I am not concerned about their offense at all - not because they aren't great, but because our defense is just as great. We have great players at all levels, and Phil Parker will have a good game plan. If we can hold IU to 20 points, we can hold Oregon to 24 points or less. Iowa will have to score 24+ points to win, plain and simple.

Oregon will use the same defensive strategy every good team has used for the past 6 seasons. Be heavier in the box to stop the run, force us to make plays through the air. They want the game to be decided by our WRs vs their DBs. Oregon currently ranks 33rd in the country in rush yards given up per game, at 124.6. Their defense ranks 24th in yards per carry at 3.5. With the talent Iowa has at OL, RB, and QB, we should be able to hit that 125 yard average/3.5 YPC mark - even against a stacked box. The key stat to watch is YPC. If the Hawks can get over the 4 YPC mark they can run their offense as usual, and probably get enough points to win straight up. If they're below that mark, they will either need to hit on some shot plays downfield, or get good field position/a TD on a turnover or return to pull off the win. Most likely we will still have to put up around 150 yards through the air though.

We don't really have the horses to stretch them through the air vertically, although we might be able to get them on a jump ball to VanderZee if the matchup justifies it. MG will throw to him in coverage if they have a smaller DB on him, as we saw on his TD against MN. The only other option is to hit them on a classic play action. Suck the LBs up with the fake, and hit Phillips or Wetjen on a crossing route up the middle, and let them use their speed to create a big play. But we do have options horizontally. This can be accomplished by using Wetjen in gadget plays, RB slip screens, and standard Slant or Bubble RPO's. If we can stretch them horizontally, we can force them to stay lighter in the box, and run the ball with great effect.

Tim Lester has been pretty creative with some of his gadget plays. He will need to be this week, and they'll have to work. This Iowa team is more consistent with past versions of the Hawks, the offense isn't that great, but it has a couple guys (Wetjen, MG, Moulten) that can create explosive plays. I've seen national talking heads say we can win if we get a Pick 6 or a return TD, I don't think we need those. We do need to create explosive plays though. When they stack the box early, attack horizontally and force them to lighten it up. Then go to your normal run heavy offense, and get an explosive play action shot play.

"Passing is for COMMIES"?!?!?!?!?!

--------the Cold War is over

 

[Jonesy5960]

Wisconsin is ranked 26 in rush D. Considering their opponent is always running the ball with a lead, that isn't "soft".

An undisciplined game from Oregon vs Wiscy. Not their norm.

Particularly worrisome? Yes, one of the best teams in the country, with speed everywhere, and a dynamic QB.

But they're beatable. If Iowa can slow down their run and get good red zone production, it's W

6-2

 

[WeBeHerkin]

Just read where Moore is the 10th rated power qb by CBS.Need to ramp up pressure on him AND contain. Oregon has quite a few line penalties on both sides-Kinnick needs to do “its thing”!

What is Indiana's QB?

 

[WeBeHerkin]

Very similar parallels to Indiana: very talented team, ranked, coming into an electric Kinnick for a 60-minute fistfight. Will the Ducks match Iowa physicality? Weather should be decent and still think Iowa is ticked it isn't ranked but take care of biz vs. the Ducks and the CFP poll is the only one that matters now and we'll get a sneak peak at that here soon...

Fun nugget....co-workers son is Oregon's starting LB (Jackson). Iowa recruited him out of Omaha, they are a confident bunch I gather but that team is walking into a LION's den come next weekend.

Is he getting paid $$?

 

[BigOHawk1]

Is he getting paid $$?

I would assume a decent chunk although I haven't asked. Nike $$$$.

 

[WeBeHerkin]

I would assume a decent chunk although I haven't asked. Nike $$$$.

Just wondered if they were highest bidder.

 

[eyesofhawk]

Lol..................

Nope

 

[Jonesy5960]

What is Indiana's QB?

2nd in the nation by passer rating. Moore is 7th.

 

[WeBeHerkin]

That Oregon Trail game was kinda fun back in the day. I always ended up dying of dysentery or something like that.

 

[DuddyB]

Basically need the exact same game plan they had against Indiana. The extremely physical and selective on blitzing.

On the offensive side, they just need to not turn the ball over and put a few selective wrinkles in. I heard the coaches mention they’ll focus more on self scouting so I expect some out of character play calling to keep them off balance.

 

[Ironman39]

Nope

That was some nice context you provided about the Wisconsin-Oregon game, hypocrite..........

 

[BigOHawk1]

That Oregon Trail game was kinda fun back in the day. I always ended up dying of dysentery or something like that.

Hilarious or I could never carry all the buffalo meat or snake bite.

 

[eyesofhawk]

That was some nice context you provided about the Wisconsin-Oregon game, hypocrite..........

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