Cincinnati Bearcats
Head Coach: Associate Larry Davis (Mick Cronin on medical leave)
Overall Record: 23-10
AAC Record: 13-5
Neutral Record: 2-2
Schedule
11/14/14 SAINT FRANCIS W 52-37
11/19/14 MOREHEAD STATE W 69-61
11/23/14 EASTERN ILLINOIS W 54-49
11/25/14 N.C. CENTRAL W 59-50
11/28/14 vs Middle Tennessee W 69-51
11/29/14 vs Ole Miss L 54-66
12/02/14 STONY BROOK W 78-52
12/13/14 at Nebraska LO2 55-56
12/17/14 SAN DIEGO STATE W OT 71-62
12/20/14 VCU L 47-68
12/23/14 WAGNER W 72-48
12/30/14 at NC State W 76-60
*01/03/15 SMU W 56-50
*01/06/15 EAST CAROLINA W 69-48
*01/10/15 at UConn L 56-62
*01/15/15 at Memphis L 50-63
*01/17/15 TEMPLE W 84-53
*01/21/15 HOUSTON W 67-54
*01/25/15 at UCF W 56-46
*01/29/15 UCONN W 70-58
*02/01/15 at East Carolina L 46-50
*02/05/15 at SMU W 62-54
*02/07/15 USF W 63-58
*02/10/15 at Temple L 59-75
*02/14/15 TULANE L 49-50
02/18/15 XAVIER L 57-59
*02/21/15 at Houston W 63-53
*02/25/15 UCF W 83-60
*02/28/15 at Tulane W 63-47
*03/04/15 at Tulsa W 56-47
*03/08/15 MEMPHIS W 77-65
N03/13/15 vs UConn L 54-57
03/19/15 vs Purdue W OT 66-65
Probable Starters
F #2 Octavius Ellis 6-10 230 Jr. 9.9pts, 7.1reb, 1.3ast, no 3pt threat
F #11 Gary Clark 6-7 230 Fr. 8.0pts, 7.2reb, 1.7ast, no 3pt threat
F #3 Shaquille Thomas 6-7 205 Jr. 6.3pts, 3.0reb, .333 3pt
G #10 Troy Caupain 6-3 200 So. 9.5pts, 3.6reb, 3.5ast, .431 3pt
G #21 Farad Cobb 6-0 165 Jr. 8.7pts, 2.4reb, 1.5ast, .342 3pt
Bench
G #25 Kevin Johnson 6-2 175 So. 6.6pts, 1.4reb, 1.4ast, .347 3pt
F #15 Jermaine Sanders 6-5 210 Sr. 4.6pts, 3.0reb, .267 3pt
C #22 Coreontae DeBerry 6-10 270 Jr. 4.1pts, 2.0reb, no 3pt threat
Team Stats
Points per game: 62.5
Points allowed: 55.6
Scoring margin: +6.9
Field goal pct: .451
FG% allowed: .389
3-point FG pct: .335
3pt% allowed: .321
Free throw pct: .670
Rebounds per game: 34.3
Rebounds allowed: 29.9
Rebounding margin: +4.4
Assists per game: 11.8
Turnovers per game: 12.7
Turnovers forced: 12.2
Turnover margin: -0.5
Assist/turnover ratio: 0.9
Steals per game: 6.6
Blocks per game: 5.4
KenPom rating: #34
Defensive Efficiency: #17
Offensive Efficiency: #89
Turnover rate: 21% which is #298 nationally
Analysis: UK's round of 32 opponent will be the Cincinnati Bearcats. This team has undergone a bit of adversity this season, primarily from the health issues of their coach, Mick Cronin. Cronin was having severe headaches last fall and eventually decided to go and have it checked out. He ended up needing a procedure called an Arterial Dissection, which has sidelined him for the remainder of this season. He has remained in an advisory role with the team but the day to day and bench coaching duties have been assumed by Associate Head Coach Larry Davis. Cronin's last game to coach was against San Diego St back on December 17, an overtime win in Cincinnati. The team was 7-2 before Cronin left the bench and has gone 16-8 without him. They did manage to finish in a tie for 3rd place in the American Athletic Conference (which looks similar to the old metro conference in my opinion), winding up the conference season with a 13-5 record. It should be noted that the Bearcats are the only remaining team from the AAC still playing in the postseason. If you're looking for a common opponent, there is one, Ole Miss. The Rebels handed Cincy their first loss of the season this year, which was a 66-54 loss at the Emerald Coast Classic in Niceville, FL. Ole Miss' Stefan Moody went for 26 points in that one.
I think the first thing that jumps out at me about Cincinnati is their style of play. They are #341 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. They do not get in any hurry. Some might say that their primary goal is to muck up a game as much as possible. Truth be told, they have to play this way to have a chance to win against most teams because of their lack of offensive efficiency. They are not a jump shooting team. They shoot the 3 at 33.5% and they only make 5 threes per game, so the vast majority of their points come in the paint, on drives to the basket, and on offensive rebounds. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, grabbing nearly 37% of their misses, which is good for #21 in the nation.
From a personnel standpoint, Cincinnati's best player is the guy who got kicked out of their game with Purdue for a flagrant 2, it's Octavius Ellis, the 6-10 forward who is the cousin of Dallas Maverick's Monta Ellis. Ellis is certainly not as polished as his cousin, but he has shown some flashes of the athleticism that led his cousin straight to the NBA from high school back in 2005. Ellis leads Cincinnati in scoring, blocked shots, and is in a virtual tie for the team lead in rebounding with fellow starting forward Gary Clark. Clark is a strong guy at 6-7 230 but he will have his hands full trying to defend UK's post players. Neither Ellis nor Clark are a 3pt threat but they are good position defenders who fit the system well. The third forward is Shaquille Thomas. Thomas is a bit more versatile than Ellis or Clark. He plays the small forward and has decent size at 6-7 205. He's really not much of three point threat, either, though he has hit a few on the season.
The backcourt for Cincinnati begins with Troy Caupain, the 6-3 guard who leads the team in assists, steals, and is second on the team in scoring. He prefers to drive the ball and do his scoring inside the arc, though he's the best shooter on the team by percentage, making 43% of his 3pt attempts. Caupain's most important role is as a facilitator though, dishing out 3.5 assists per game with the best a/to ratio on the team, and his defense is also very good. His backcourt running mate is Farad Cobb. Cobb is the guy who is not shy about taking the three. He has more attempts and makes than anyone else on the team.
From the bench, Cincinnati is fairly thin. They rely mostly on 3 guys, G Kevin Johnson, SF Jermaine Sanders, and C Coreontae DeBerry. Johnson is a guy who will come in and give some offense. The majority of his shots come from beyond the arc when he's in the game. He shoots it at nearly 35% and has the second most attempts from 3 on the team. Jermaine Sanders is a 6-5 210 small forward who struggles shooting the ball from pretty much everywhere, including the foul line. He comes in to defend and rebound more than anything else. DeBerry is a big body who provides help in the post. He only averages about 10 minutes per game and comes in to give Ellis a breather and provides defense and a little scoring.
Cincinnati is similar to UK in a couple ways that I can see. They are very team oriented and very balanced in their scoring. They don't have one guy who is likely to beat you on any given night but they have several guys who can score in a variety of ways. They are also a very good defensive team that doesn't foul very much or take a bunch of risks. They are going to play sound defense and stay in front of their man, forcing teams to hit contested jump shots all night. Calipari pointed out last night in his post game that he expects to see a lot of match-up zone in this game and that the Cats must prepare for it. The key to this game will be patience, in my opinion, and not settling for a bunch of threes.
Kenpom predicts this to be an 11 point victory for UK, which is too close for comfort for me. That margin is more a function of Cincinnati's style of play than their skill. Still, I think the margin will be wider than 11. Be prepared for an ugly game unless UK is hitting the three and forces Cincinnati to speed up. The good news for UK is that Cincinnati hasn't seen anything close to UK's length on the season. In fact, when you look at their schedule you'll see that the Bearcats haven't faced a top 20 team all season. Ellis is going to struggle scoring over any of UK's post players in this one, which means that Cincinnati will have to find other places. If UK can keep the Bearcats off the offensive glass, this game becomes academic, a fairly easy win. I think UK will come out ready to play in this game, looking to show improved effort and energy over that first outing of the tournament. Kentucky 75 Cincinnati 55
This post was edited on 3/20 4:55 PM by IL Wildcat
Scouting Cincy on BigBlueTheory
Head Coach: Associate Larry Davis (Mick Cronin on medical leave)
Overall Record: 23-10
AAC Record: 13-5
Neutral Record: 2-2
Schedule
11/14/14 SAINT FRANCIS W 52-37
11/19/14 MOREHEAD STATE W 69-61
11/23/14 EASTERN ILLINOIS W 54-49
11/25/14 N.C. CENTRAL W 59-50
11/28/14 vs Middle Tennessee W 69-51
11/29/14 vs Ole Miss L 54-66
12/02/14 STONY BROOK W 78-52
12/13/14 at Nebraska LO2 55-56
12/17/14 SAN DIEGO STATE W OT 71-62
12/20/14 VCU L 47-68
12/23/14 WAGNER W 72-48
12/30/14 at NC State W 76-60
*01/03/15 SMU W 56-50
*01/06/15 EAST CAROLINA W 69-48
*01/10/15 at UConn L 56-62
*01/15/15 at Memphis L 50-63
*01/17/15 TEMPLE W 84-53
*01/21/15 HOUSTON W 67-54
*01/25/15 at UCF W 56-46
*01/29/15 UCONN W 70-58
*02/01/15 at East Carolina L 46-50
*02/05/15 at SMU W 62-54
*02/07/15 USF W 63-58
*02/10/15 at Temple L 59-75
*02/14/15 TULANE L 49-50
02/18/15 XAVIER L 57-59
*02/21/15 at Houston W 63-53
*02/25/15 UCF W 83-60
*02/28/15 at Tulane W 63-47
*03/04/15 at Tulsa W 56-47
*03/08/15 MEMPHIS W 77-65
N03/13/15 vs UConn L 54-57
03/19/15 vs Purdue W OT 66-65
Probable Starters
F #2 Octavius Ellis 6-10 230 Jr. 9.9pts, 7.1reb, 1.3ast, no 3pt threat
F #11 Gary Clark 6-7 230 Fr. 8.0pts, 7.2reb, 1.7ast, no 3pt threat
F #3 Shaquille Thomas 6-7 205 Jr. 6.3pts, 3.0reb, .333 3pt
G #10 Troy Caupain 6-3 200 So. 9.5pts, 3.6reb, 3.5ast, .431 3pt
G #21 Farad Cobb 6-0 165 Jr. 8.7pts, 2.4reb, 1.5ast, .342 3pt
Bench
G #25 Kevin Johnson 6-2 175 So. 6.6pts, 1.4reb, 1.4ast, .347 3pt
F #15 Jermaine Sanders 6-5 210 Sr. 4.6pts, 3.0reb, .267 3pt
C #22 Coreontae DeBerry 6-10 270 Jr. 4.1pts, 2.0reb, no 3pt threat
Team Stats
Points per game: 62.5
Points allowed: 55.6
Scoring margin: +6.9
Field goal pct: .451
FG% allowed: .389
3-point FG pct: .335
3pt% allowed: .321
Free throw pct: .670
Rebounds per game: 34.3
Rebounds allowed: 29.9
Rebounding margin: +4.4
Assists per game: 11.8
Turnovers per game: 12.7
Turnovers forced: 12.2
Turnover margin: -0.5
Assist/turnover ratio: 0.9
Steals per game: 6.6
Blocks per game: 5.4
KenPom rating: #34
Defensive Efficiency: #17
Offensive Efficiency: #89
Turnover rate: 21% which is #298 nationally
Analysis: UK's round of 32 opponent will be the Cincinnati Bearcats. This team has undergone a bit of adversity this season, primarily from the health issues of their coach, Mick Cronin. Cronin was having severe headaches last fall and eventually decided to go and have it checked out. He ended up needing a procedure called an Arterial Dissection, which has sidelined him for the remainder of this season. He has remained in an advisory role with the team but the day to day and bench coaching duties have been assumed by Associate Head Coach Larry Davis. Cronin's last game to coach was against San Diego St back on December 17, an overtime win in Cincinnati. The team was 7-2 before Cronin left the bench and has gone 16-8 without him. They did manage to finish in a tie for 3rd place in the American Athletic Conference (which looks similar to the old metro conference in my opinion), winding up the conference season with a 13-5 record. It should be noted that the Bearcats are the only remaining team from the AAC still playing in the postseason. If you're looking for a common opponent, there is one, Ole Miss. The Rebels handed Cincy their first loss of the season this year, which was a 66-54 loss at the Emerald Coast Classic in Niceville, FL. Ole Miss' Stefan Moody went for 26 points in that one.
I think the first thing that jumps out at me about Cincinnati is their style of play. They are #341 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. They do not get in any hurry. Some might say that their primary goal is to muck up a game as much as possible. Truth be told, they have to play this way to have a chance to win against most teams because of their lack of offensive efficiency. They are not a jump shooting team. They shoot the 3 at 33.5% and they only make 5 threes per game, so the vast majority of their points come in the paint, on drives to the basket, and on offensive rebounds. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, grabbing nearly 37% of their misses, which is good for #21 in the nation.
From a personnel standpoint, Cincinnati's best player is the guy who got kicked out of their game with Purdue for a flagrant 2, it's Octavius Ellis, the 6-10 forward who is the cousin of Dallas Maverick's Monta Ellis. Ellis is certainly not as polished as his cousin, but he has shown some flashes of the athleticism that led his cousin straight to the NBA from high school back in 2005. Ellis leads Cincinnati in scoring, blocked shots, and is in a virtual tie for the team lead in rebounding with fellow starting forward Gary Clark. Clark is a strong guy at 6-7 230 but he will have his hands full trying to defend UK's post players. Neither Ellis nor Clark are a 3pt threat but they are good position defenders who fit the system well. The third forward is Shaquille Thomas. Thomas is a bit more versatile than Ellis or Clark. He plays the small forward and has decent size at 6-7 205. He's really not much of three point threat, either, though he has hit a few on the season.
The backcourt for Cincinnati begins with Troy Caupain, the 6-3 guard who leads the team in assists, steals, and is second on the team in scoring. He prefers to drive the ball and do his scoring inside the arc, though he's the best shooter on the team by percentage, making 43% of his 3pt attempts. Caupain's most important role is as a facilitator though, dishing out 3.5 assists per game with the best a/to ratio on the team, and his defense is also very good. His backcourt running mate is Farad Cobb. Cobb is the guy who is not shy about taking the three. He has more attempts and makes than anyone else on the team.
From the bench, Cincinnati is fairly thin. They rely mostly on 3 guys, G Kevin Johnson, SF Jermaine Sanders, and C Coreontae DeBerry. Johnson is a guy who will come in and give some offense. The majority of his shots come from beyond the arc when he's in the game. He shoots it at nearly 35% and has the second most attempts from 3 on the team. Jermaine Sanders is a 6-5 210 small forward who struggles shooting the ball from pretty much everywhere, including the foul line. He comes in to defend and rebound more than anything else. DeBerry is a big body who provides help in the post. He only averages about 10 minutes per game and comes in to give Ellis a breather and provides defense and a little scoring.
Cincinnati is similar to UK in a couple ways that I can see. They are very team oriented and very balanced in their scoring. They don't have one guy who is likely to beat you on any given night but they have several guys who can score in a variety of ways. They are also a very good defensive team that doesn't foul very much or take a bunch of risks. They are going to play sound defense and stay in front of their man, forcing teams to hit contested jump shots all night. Calipari pointed out last night in his post game that he expects to see a lot of match-up zone in this game and that the Cats must prepare for it. The key to this game will be patience, in my opinion, and not settling for a bunch of threes.
Kenpom predicts this to be an 11 point victory for UK, which is too close for comfort for me. That margin is more a function of Cincinnati's style of play than their skill. Still, I think the margin will be wider than 11. Be prepared for an ugly game unless UK is hitting the three and forces Cincinnati to speed up. The good news for UK is that Cincinnati hasn't seen anything close to UK's length on the season. In fact, when you look at their schedule you'll see that the Bearcats haven't faced a top 20 team all season. Ellis is going to struggle scoring over any of UK's post players in this one, which means that Cincinnati will have to find other places. If UK can keep the Bearcats off the offensive glass, this game becomes academic, a fairly easy win. I think UK will come out ready to play in this game, looking to show improved effort and energy over that first outing of the tournament. Kentucky 75 Cincinnati 55
This post was edited on 3/20 4:55 PM by IL Wildcat
Scouting Cincy on BigBlueTheory
