sanctions prediction - Dennis Dodd (CBS)

[kendesu]

“To reiterate, [my prediction] was a one-year additional bowl ban, going into 2018 for Ole Miss, a loss of 25 scholarships over three seasons, the usual recruiting restrictions … a multi-million dollar fine — which seems to be a go-to for the NCAA these days - vacating wins, I think that’s obvious, multi boosters being disassociated, which I think has already begun to happen, a show-cause order for Hugh Freeze, which will affect him when and if he wants to get back into the game, and then I think the magic bullet they now have in their holster: Existing players will be allowed to transfer without penalty, and that really hurts. That’s what hurt Penn State, among others. They want to teach Ole Miss a lesson, that’s the one that hurts the most.”

audio of interview

 

[57stratdawg]

The problem with going light on OM, and I would consider that a bit on the light side, is that next time it'll be hard to hit a program with a post season ban if they're only doing one of: faking ACT scores, coaches are giving up hotel rooms, coaches are introducing boosters to propsecrs, boosters paying $10,000, loaner cars, etc.

3 year bowl ban
40 scholarships
basically 0 official visits
Multiple show causes
Players can transfer

 

[Go Budaw]

That would more or less be a slap on the wrist and a total green light to everyone cheating. We've been close to 25 scholarships total under the 85 limit over the past 3 years and we aren't even on probation.

 

[MaroonNation]

seems pretty light considering OM will be the most heavily sanctioned school in NCAA history, including SMU. The shear
Number of Level 1 violations alone exceed any other school ever punished.

 

[Snog]

Naw

Freeze, Nix, Kiffin, Farrar, LUKE, never coach in the NCAA again.

These are smart people(COI), Luke getting interim made him look even more guilty.

40 over 4 or 5 should be rock solid. If not, why even have "the new matrix"? It's all ******** at that point and you've let yourself become irrelevant and wasted a **** ton of money in the process.

Remember, dollars, always the dollars(from whatever vegas mob movie).

A USC in the middle of LA can come back from 30 over 3.

A ole miss will spend damn near two decades.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

The problem with going light on OM, and I would consider that a bit on the light side, is that next time it'll be hard to hit a program with a post season ban if they're only doing one of: faking ACT scores, coaches are giving up hotel rooms, coaches are introducing boosters to propsecrs, boosters paying $10,000, loaner cars, etc.

3 year bowl ban
40 scholarships
basically 0 official visits
Multiple show clauses
Players can transfer

The difficulty in predicting sanctions for UM is that this is the first really major case under the new matrix (and even some of the ACT fraud stuff looks to be going under the old matrix). I could see their sanctions being anything between what USC got and what you posted above. Either way, it'll be crippling.

What's going to kill UM's defense is the sheer scope of this deal. They are accused of (and agree to most of it) basically everything that s against NCAA rules- academic fraud, free lodging, transportation, food, cash payments, merchandise, loaner cars, extra benefits, etc. There's basically nothing that UM players/ recruits could have gotten for free that they didn't get, and it was all coordinated between coaches and boosters from within the Manning center. The coaches then turned around and lied about it to compliance and the NCAA. They did almost all of it while already being in the middle of a major investigation. Its textbook LOIC, and I can't imagine a scenario in which that doesn't stick.

 

[HD6]

It's going to be difficult for a national writer to say 40 plus scholarships, because that has never happened before. Better safe than sorry for those predictions.

 

[coach66]

I doubt it gets to 40 but I agree with the rest of

Your assessment. 30 schollies

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Good Lord, we've been nowhere close to 25. WTF

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

I think COI has a little latitude with the severity of the sanctions, but I expect them to cripple Ole Miss football for at least 6-8 years.

30-35 scholarships over 3-4 years
2-3 year bowl ban
players can transfer immediately
Minimum of 4 show causes possible more Freeze, vaughn, farrar, & baby kiffin (if he has not talked to the NCAA) for certain & possibly harris & nix
official visits cut in half

At some point Bjork & maybe Vitter will lose their jobs as a result of the elementary school handling of this investigation
Someone currently employed @ the NCAA would become the Ole Miss version of Bracky

 

[hatfieldms]

A slap on the wrist? Good Lord

 

[garndawg]

I hear ya'll...

but I still say...

DEATH PENALTY

Not a GTHOM-inspired opinion, either.

This is the most egregious cheating scandal since SMU. Seriously. If the NCAA is _ever_ going to use the DP again, now's the time.

 

[Shmuley]

What's not clear is whether Dodd means 25 on top of what the bears have already Self-imposed.

 

[Drebin]

I hear ya'll...

but I still say...

DEATH PENALTY

Not a GTHOM-inspired opinion, either.

This is the most egregious cheating scandal since SMU. Seriously. If the NCAA is _ever_ going to use the DP again, now's the time.

They ain't getting the death penalty. Every time you and the rest of the special EDs scream about it, it makes you look more silly.

 

[hatfieldms]

No they are not

It is really kind of ridiculous to even talk about the death penalty. And 25 scholarships over three years with 2 year bowl ban and players allowed to leave with no penalty isnpretty damn crippling. Far from a slap on the wrist

 

[57stratdawg]

I don't see how the COI can take the new penalty matrix and leave with 30 scholarships. Hell, 40 for that matter. Theyll basically have have a lot of:

"NOA charge XX, Booster provided prospect with free ride and hotel rooms. We determine this charge is mitigated. No bowl ban, 1 scholarships reduction"

"NOA charge XX, Booster provided $350 in cash and free food and drinks. We determine this charge is mitigated. No bowl ban, 2 scholarship reduction"

I cannot imagine that being the message they want to send.

 

[bonedaddy401]

I think they end up getting two additional years of bowl ban and 35 scholarships

If it's less than that it better come with the ruling all current players can immediately transfer.

I don't think the NCAA lets them off lightly especially after what they have done leaking information / trying to get in front of the NCAA's path.

 

[MaroonNation]

I hear ya'll...

but I still say...

DEATH PENALTY

Not a GTHOM-inspired opinion, either.

This is the most egregious cheating scandal since SMU. Seriously. If the NCAA is _ever_ going to use the DP again, now's the time.

Considering OM was the second most heavily sanctioned school prior to all of this it is safe to say that wht ever sanctions they get will make them the most heavily penalized team in NCAA history

 

[LilSebastian]

If they really wanted to kick me in the bards they'd go after the apparel deal. No logos on TV and must switch to Russell unis.

 

[patdog]

That's pretty much what I expect. Maybe only a 2-year bowl ban, but the length of the official bowl ban is pretty irrelevant. With 40 scholarships lost, they're not going to a bowl for several years.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are lower simply because the folks deciding are not associated with the SEC so they're much more closer to being disinterested observers than those of us who post and comment in this here message board.

 

[patdog]

Drebin's right. Even mentioning the death penalty just makes it hard to take you seriously. THEY ARE NOT GETTING THE DEATH PENALTY. They might wish they had, though.

 

[engie]

Generally a 2 year bowl ban only allows open transfer in the top two classifications(guys that would never play another bowl game in their career without taking a redshirt). Penn State had open transfers for the whole roster -- but they also had a 4 year bowl ban initially. I think most people have their signals crossed on how that process generally works.

I don't think the NCAA has ever allowed full roster open transfer in football without the above stipulation being met but might be wrong. If they did this time, that is hugely significant IMO and would allow the total scholly reduction number to come down quite a bit. Because the net effect is ~ the same.

 

[QuadrupleOption]

It's going to be difficult for a national writer to say 40 plus scholarships, because that has never happened before. Better safe than sorry for those predictions.

I agree. The COI could easily hit them with 60 scholarships lost just for the Level 1 violations and still not get anywhere near the maximum for the new matrix. The question isn't whether they get hammered, because they are. What everyone wants to see is just how closely the COI is going to adhere to their own published penalty matrix.

Everyone saying "25 or 30" is thinking about how the NCAA used to do business. There's no way they can stop there and even pretend they followed that matrix. You may as well throw it out at that point.

 

[Bulldogg31]

If we got hit with those sanctions Dodd listed I would be devastated. Those are crippling sanctions for a program like ours that already has to play uphill.

Stop for a second and imagine getting hit with 2-3 year bowl ban, 25-30 schollys, reduced recruiting abilities, millions of dollars in fines, talented players transferring out with no penalty, and on top of that WE CANT CHEAT in order to catch up. On top of all that we'd be known as a cheating program and become a national punchline.

I'm telling you I would be devastated. Might not even go back to a game for several years. It's a walking death penalty.

 

[Drebin]

It is really kind of ridiculous to even talk about the death penalty. And 25 scholarships over three years with 2 year bowl ban and players allowed to leave with no penalty isnpretty damn crippling. Far from a slap on the wrist

I must admit, I will be disappointed at 25/3. USC got 30/3 so that would have to be the floor for me. I'd rather see 40/4.

 

[Dolphus Raymond]

32 over 4
2 year bowl ban
Severe recruiting restrictions with NCAA oversight
Multiple show causes
A 4 game suspension for Luke

 

[garndawg]

Understood. Time will tell...

 

[DerHntr]

The big question mark for me when it comes to the severity of the penalties is how they create the COI. Since it is primarily people who do not actually work for the NCAA, they could rather easily make any decision they want for the sanctions. Hopefully the committee sticks closely with the new matrix but I doubt they do.

 

[Go Budaw]

Deleted...replied to wrong post

 

[Go Budaw]

Good Lord, we've been nowhere close to 25. WTF

We are about 10 under this year, were 6 or 7 under last year and were 4-5 under in 2015. Thats 20-22 scholarships over 3 years. Don't believe me? Go look up the rosters and count the scholarship guys each year.

 

[blacklistedbully]

A while back, someone on ED argued the new penalty matrix does not require the COI to impose the matrix on every individual violation, instead allowing them to group multiple violations into 1 matrix punishment that could then be bumped from mitigated-to-standard, and/or standard-to-aggravated.

I hope he is wrong about the grouping, but if he is correct, I hope they hammer the **** out of those guys on "aggravated". If any one of those level one's is deemed, "aggravated", the COI can hammer them about as hard as they want to. If multiple of them are deemed, "aggravated" the COI would almost have to penalize so harshly a 1-year DP might seem merciful by comparison.

I agree. The COI could easily hit them with 60 scholarships lost just for the Level 1 violations and still not get anywhere near the maximum for the new matrix. The question isn't whether they get hammered, because they are. What everyone wants to see is just how closely the COI is going to adhere to their own published penalty matrix.

Everyone saying "25 or 30" is thinking about how the NCAA used to do business. There's no way they can stop there and even pretend they followed that matrix. You may as well throw it out at that point.

 

[MaroonNation]

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are lower simply because the folks deciding are not associated with the SEC so they're much more closer to being disinterested observers than those of us who post and comment in this here message board.

I disagree. OM has repeatedly thumbed their nose at the NCAA process. The fact they were still cheating WHILE THE NCAA WAS ON CAMPUS will not be forgotten. Neither will leaking identities of student athletes under immunity and allowing OM beat writers to view confidential documents, in turn, publically trying to shame the process. Also there is the whole idea af leaking the location and COI members involved. Oh yeah and Freeze and Bjork BOTH lying to 2 years worth of recruits saying all the allegations were on the former coach. I'm sure there are more reasons too that none of us even know about. No sir, if anything, this may be the most personal the NCAA has ever taken a case.

 

[blacklistedbully]

And threatening/suing student athletes the NCAA granted immunity to, not to mention the outing of their names (assuming they believe UNM colluded with the Rebel Rags legal team and friendly media to do so).

If it's less than that it better come with the ruling all current players can immediately transfer.

I don't think the NCAA lets them off lightly especially after what they have done leaking information / trying to get in front of the NCAA's path.

 

[the dog is on the loose]

One thing everybody is leaving out on this is that because of all their cheating and looming penalties they won't be able to get a good head coach any time soon not to mention the fact that look at what they have for a head coach now. Just this alone is as bad as the penalties they are about to receive.

 

[Wizard.sixpack]

It will be more than USC's punishment. So I will go with north of 30 schollies.

 

[patdog]

Mississippi is going to be at least 25 under the limit EACH year for a few years.

 

[patdog]

For what they're charged with, yeah, 25 scholarships would be pretty much a slap on the wrist.

 

[GloryDawg]

That would more or less be a slap on the wrist and a total green light to everyone cheating. We've been close to 25 scholarships total under the 85 limit over the past 3 years and we aren't even on probation.

It is hard to stay at 85 that's why walk on get scholarships their senior year. People just leave on their own. Just think how bad it would be if you started at 70 total allowed vs 85 total allow.

 

[drt7891]

The death penalty is the repeat violators clause, anyway. Despite all the **** OM is charged with, repeat violators isn't on the table. Therefore, no death penalty.