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Sagarin ratings are really messed up

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Beancounter88

All-Conference
Dec 22, 2010
3,490
2,341
0
So, we beat Illinois, they go to 5-3 and move up from #7 to #6. We beat #7, go to 6-0 and we move up one spot from #15 to #14. How are we 8 spots below a team we just beat and that has 3 losses? I know it's computer modeling yada yada yada, but that's ridiculous.

 
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ScarletDave

ScarletDave

Heisman
Oct 7, 2010
34,761
15,667
85
Strength of schedule dominates Sargarin early in the season, it’s just part of their formula. Illinois has @ 10 (at the time) Duke, #2 Baylor, and now #19 RU on their schedule, hence being so high. It will even out as the season goes on
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
Beancounter88 said:
1000% correct, but that is annoying. We all know if the name on the front of the jersey was Duke or UNC, we'd be ranked top 5 right now.
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The algorithm doesn't read the names on jerseys. Though, if we were Duke, our prior-season inputs into the algorithm would be better and would give us more lift until it worked its way out of the data.
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
I'd venture to say that in the early parts of the season, human polls will be more representative of reality because they are able to react more quickly to what we're seeing "right now" without carrying as much input from last year, while later in the season algorithmic polls are probably more representative of reality because they don't carry brand name bias the way human pollsters do and are only looking at current season results.
 
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Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
I wish after a few games kenpom or bartovik would have a box to click that would only include real numbers. I realize the results on some teams would be head scratchers.

With the season being shortened it might be until the end of the season until we see results that don't include any "projected" info.
 
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cubuffsdoug_rivals

cubuffsdoug_rivals

Heisman
Apr 8, 2002
15,878
28,121
113
I've read where some people are holding tight to their original pre-season picks in the B1G. It's based mostly on analytics from kenpom and a few other sites. I'm puzzled as some of the picks are looking very questionable, like Michigan State, Illinois, and Ohio State. Each of these teams is still picked to finish ahead of us. Are people actually watching games? We were a pre-season pick of 5th, and now I see people claiming Rutgers as the 7th best team in the B1G, Really?
 
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Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
The last time we gave up more points per possession (raw) than yesterday in a game was

11/16/2019 St. Bonaventure 80 points in 64 possessions
12/20/2020 Illinois 88 points in 73 possessions

If someone told me a month ago we'd give up 88 points in 73 possessions to Illinois I'd think our chances of winning the game would be at best 1%.

Being a day removed from the game I don't know if I feel better about our team compared to before the game. I know we have been VERY good offensively the 1st 6 games. I don't think we should expect to outscore any team like we did yesterday.

Maybe if I went back and took out the quasi garbage time the defensive metrics wouldn't be as bad.
 
S

Scangg

Heisman
Mar 19, 2016
25,469
49,418
113
Greene Rice FIG said:
Being a day removed from the game I don't know if I feel better about our team compared to before the game.
Click to expand...
You should. You really really should. The more ways we are capable of winning the better.

Beating the 13th ranked team who scores 88 on 54% FG and 60% from 3 is extremely impressive. Its not like bc of this game we are now somehow incapable of playing defense ever again.
 
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cubuffsdoug_rivals

cubuffsdoug_rivals

Heisman
Apr 8, 2002
15,878
28,121
113
Greene Rice FIG said:
The last time we gave up more points per possession (raw) than yesterday in a game was

11/16/2019 St. Bonaventure 80 points in 64 possessions
12/20/2020 Illinois 88 points in 73 possessions

If someone told me a month ago we'd give up 88 points in 73 possessions to Illinois I'd think our chances of winning the game would be at best 1%.

Being a day removed from the game I don't know if I feel better about our team compared to before the game. I know we have been VERY good offensively the 1st 6 games. I don't think we should expect to outscore any team like we did yesterday.

Maybe if I went back and took out the quasi garbage time the defensive metrics wouldn't be as bad.
Click to expand...
It's OK, FIG. We know it's going to take some time before you're completely on board. This team can score when the defense isn't on complete lockdown. 🤣
 
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Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
Scangg said:
You should. You really really should. The more ways we are capable of winning the better.

Beating the 13th ranked team who scores 88 on 54% FG and 60% from 3 is extremely impressive. Its not like bc of this game we are now somehow incapable of playing defense ever again.
Click to expand...
let me be negative please!!!!!!!! 🤓
 
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G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
Looked at when Cliff was in the game defensively....
2*-3-0-3-0-2* +/- was -8 0-0 to 2-10
0-2*-0-2-0 +/- was -4 13-17 to 13-21
2-0-0-2* +/- was +3 23-33 to 30-37
0-0-2* +/- was -1 39-41 to 40-43

He was in for 17 possessions and was -10. In those 17 possessions Cockburn (noted by *) scored 10 points.
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
Greene Rice FIG said:
Looked at when Cliff was in the game defensively....
2*-3-0-3-0-2* +/- was -8 0-0 to 2-10
0-2*-0-2-0 +/- was -4 13-17 to 13-21
2-0-0-2* +/- was +3 23-33 to 30-37
0-0-2* +/- was -1 39-41 to 40-43

He was in for 17 possessions and was -10. In those 17 possessions Cockburn (noted by *) scored 10 points.
Click to expand...

It sucks that he got hurt, but this was an important yardstick game for Cliff in terms of what elite center play in the B1G looks like and where he needs to put in work.
 
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nealbo1

All-Conference
Sep 5, 2006
2,282
1,099
0
Great learning experience for Cliff - he’ll have this game in mind for a while. That said, we still need what he can do for the team now, so very much hoping he’s okay.
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
Beancounter88 said:
So, today Sagarin drops us from #14 to #25 without playing a game. How is anyone supposed to take those rankings seriously?
Click to expand...

Short answer - you can't until beyond the mid-point of the season, and this year maybe further as the OOC schedule was so short

Long answer - all algorithmic rating systems start with last year's final outputs as a starting point, then add new games into the mix as they slowly faze out prior season data. Early in the season, when there are only a few data points, each new data point will produce a bigger shift than it will later in the season when there are many data points. That's both when we play games, and when every other team plays games. Anothing thing to note, the top of the Sagarin list is really close right now, everything from 16-34 is within a 2 point home advantage spread (86.70-84.75)- not much separation.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
252,840
181,775
113
Sagarin ratings are worthless anyway. Its all about the NET, unfortunately with the new NET system in place this year, I have not seen a site come up with a replica NET ranking as of yet so we must wait until NCAA starts releasing it. Ive seen it out other years in this time frame but nada yet and have not heard a date as of yet
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
Just took another look at Sagarin's algorithm, and it's basically throwing up its hands at this point in the season with the numbers as tight as they are..... According to the model, Rutgers would be in a single basket game at home against the 8th ranked team, and within a single basket on the road to the 43rd ranked team. There's very little in the way of meaningful separation.
 
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Scarlet Blind_rivals

All-Conference
Aug 5, 2001
4,731
4,806
62
Hofstra(3-3), now 4-3, won @ a very good Richmond(6-1) today 76-71 only other loss top 10 @WVU 87-71.
Hofstra losses to us, 2-0 St Bonnies and Rick P. 4-3 Iona.
 
S

Scangg

Heisman
Mar 19, 2016
25,469
49,418
113
cubuffsdoug said:
It's OK, FIG. We know it's going to take some time before you're completely on board. This team can score when the defense isn't on complete lockdown. 🤣
Click to expand...
Some time? How many years does he need?! Hopefully he gets on board before the Pike retires as Rutgers all time most winning coach
 
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L

Letitrip

All-Conference
Sep 4, 2007
2,415
4,297
66
Computer ratings mean very little - lots of bias from the programmers. Growing up the popular computer rating was the "Dunkel". Always used to complain how they underrated RU

FWIW - Dunkel have us at #5 in the country.
 
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