2024 at the earliest. Still a big backlog of new orders. I just got this from Airstream the other day. Cutting production by 15% because of supply chain and labor issues.
View attachment 21405
Got a 2022 cheaper than a used 2017 by ordering. My delivery has been pushed from October to January, which is fine by me since I can't really use it in the winter.
I listened to a few of the quarterly calls from the THO and WGO (big RV manufacturers) and they see tight retail inventories through at least 2022. The backlog of motorhome orders from Winnebago is up 323% year over year and it will take 2 years to fill all of the orders if no new ones came in. The next big wave ov RV buying is just getting kicked off in Europe as well.
With more flexible work conditions, lots of folks are going to continue using RV's for working vacations. The first increase in the used market will be lower end models. The RV newbies bought a lot of the lower end stick and tin models. That cohort will either upgrade or quit RVing first. In a recent survey half of RV owners are now under 55. 22% are 18-34 year olds. 84% of 18-34 year olds that currently own an RV plan to upgrade in the next 5 years.
There will definitely be a sell off, but it probably will take several years and will not be as big as we originally thought. Still lots of demand and prices will continue to climb because of inflationary pressures. New RV's are adding in lots of solar and lithium battery options that reduce the need for RV parks out west.
I was wrong in thinking I would be able to snag an RV used this year at a discount. Turns out industry experts are usually right. Just like they will be for housing.
https://www.rvia.org/go-rving-rv-owner-demographic-profile