Rutgers Projected To Be A 6th Seed!

[Blitz Pakage]

Bracket Matrix
Note: all ranks are projections, not current ranks.
This is an attempt to predict the actual bracket,
not imagine what it would be if the season ended today.

As of January 09 2020 12:42 pm
2019 final results
2018 final results
2017 final results



T-Ranketology
SEED TEAM CONF NET ELO RES WAB PWR IN % BID%
1 Duke*** ACC 1 2 5 3 1.0 100.0 100.0
1 Kansas*** B12 2 1 1 1 2.0 100.0 100.0
1 Michigan St.*** B10 5 8 4 5 3.0 100.0 99.9
1 Butler*** BE 4 4 7 2 9.0 100.0 99.9
2 Baylor B12 8 9 2 7 9.7 100.0 99.9
2 San Diego St.*** MWC 6 3 46 6 12.3 100.0 99.9
2 Gonzaga*** WCC 3 7 22 15 6.3 100.0 99.9
2 West Virginia B12 12 6 3 4 12.3 100.0 99.9
3 Ohio St. B10 17 17 6 9 8.0 99.9 99.8
3 Dayton*** A10 7 5 27 8 11.3 100.0 99.8
3 Maryland B10 14 24 11 12 6.7 99.8 99.7
3 Florida St. ACC 15 13 10 10 12.3 100.0 99.7
4 Auburn*** SEC 9 12 15 11 12.3 100.0 99.7
4 Oregon P12 13 18 8 17 12.7 100.0 99.7
4 Seton Hall BE 18 19 13 16 15.3 98.5 99.5
4 Kentucky SEC 16 32 9 28 18.0 99.0 99.5
5 Villanova BE 20 28 23 19 19.3 97.2 99.1
5 Wichita St.*** Amer 19 10 20 14 31.0 99.9 99.0
5 Louisville ACC 10 11 48 13 12.3 99.9 98.9
5 Penn St. B10 33 38 14 18 25.3 96.9 98.4
6 Arizona*** P12 11 15 49 20 12.7 99.8 98.3
6 Michigan B10 32 40 17 21 22.0 91.2 98.3
6 Florida SEC 24 23 19 26 21.7 96.9 98.1
6 Rutgers B10 31 35 16 23 35.7 94.9 97.7
7 BYU WCC 26 14 36 22 30.3 99.4 96.7
7 Colorado P12 28 20 28 24 39.0 98.0 96.4
7 LSU SEC 21 39 35 45 24.7 95.0 95.9
7 Memphis Amer 25 21 42 29 37.3 94.1 93.9
8 Wisconsin B10 35 50 12 40 23.3 72.8 93.6
8 Iowa B10 40 47 31 27 25.7 77.9 93.3
8 Houston Amer 22 25 54 33 24.3 96.1 92.9
8 Arkansas SEC 30 29 33 31 33.7 93.9 92.7
9 Illinois B10 39 55 26 41 30.3 72.8 91.9
9 Texas Tech B12 27 59 34 49 26.3 74.4 91.0
9 Creighton BE 41 33 32 25 46.7 87.7 89.6
9 Saint Mary's WCC 23 26 63 34 30.7 95.7 88.4
10 Marquette BE 37 45 40 42 35.0 77.7 85.1
10 Purdue B10 47 48 24 38 26.3 61.4 76.6
10 VCU A10 29 30 70 39 41.0 79.9 71.4
10 North Carolina St. ACC 36 44 57 51 40.0 69.1 68.4
11 Stanford P12 43 34 43 32 59.3 71.5 65.3
11 Indiana B10 70 65 18 35 45.3 63.3 63.6
11 Minnesota B10 48 46 21 36 35.3 56.8 59.9
11 Virginia ACC 46 43 56 46 38.3 60.2 56.3
11 Xavier BE 51 53 50 44 41.7 62.8 55.7
11 Georgetown BE 52 57 37 50 48.7 49.1 55.6
12 Liberty*** ASun 34 16 125 30 45.7 88.9 45.1
12 Furman*** SC 45 27 91 48 59.7 42.5 14.9
12 Northern Iowa*** MVC 55 22 87 37 80.7 41.8 10.9
12 Yale*** Ivy 50 37 108 56 59.7 45.8 5.7
13 Louisiana Tech*** CUSA 49 56 112 67 60.0 30.2 2.2
13 Akron*** MAC 56 31 119 52 83.7 45.0 1.0
13 Vermont*** AE 72 70 127 89 79.7 57.1 0.1
13 Stephen F. Austin*** Slnd 93 77 111 72 129.7 51.0 0.0
14 Wright St.*** Horz 90 62 142 81 103.7 49.2 0.0
14 New Mexico St.*** WAC 82 80 155 102 86.0 59.6 0.0
14 Belmont*** OVC 92 75 151 97 87.0 44.0 0.0
14 College of Charleston*** CAA 101 88 132 104 115.0 27.6 0.0
15 Colgate*** Pat 100 100 133 98 125.7 46.0 0.0
15 Georgia St.*** SB 98 89 153 99 112.3 29.9 0.0
15 Winthrop*** BSth 130 104 109 109 136.7 42.3 0.0
15 Northern Colorado*** BSky 87 108 173 129 109.0 24.7 0.0
16 UC Santa Barbara*** BW 119 96 170 103 126.7 31.9 0.0
16 North Dakota St.*** Sum 117 125 169 128 128.0 24.4 0.0
16 St. Francis PA*** NEC 132 130 213 121 162.3 44.6 0.0
16 Monmouth*** MAAC 194 165 221 176 206.0 21.7 0.0
16 Prairie View A&M*** SWAC 212 179 201 178 223.0 45.1 0.0
16 Bethune Cookman*** MEAC 256 240 266 217 268.0 23.5 0.0
LAST FOUR BYES NET ELO RES WAB PWR IN % BID%
VCU A10 29 30 70 39 41.0 79.9 71.4
North Carolina St. ACC 36 44 57 51 40.0 69.1 68.4
Stanford P12 43 34 43 32 59.3 71.5 65.3
Indiana B10 70 65 18 35 45.3 63.3 63.6
LAST FOUR IN NET ELO RES WAB PWR IN % BID%
Minnesota B10 48 46 21 36 35.3 56.8 59.9
Virginia ACC 46 43 56 46 38.3 60.2 56.3
Xavier BE 51 53 50 44 41.7 62.8 55.7
Georgetown BE 52 57 37 50 48.7 49.1 55.6
FIRST TEAMS OUT NET ELO RES WAB PWR IN % BID%
1 Oklahoma B12 57 69 38 43 49.3 40.2 48.0
2 Washington P12 42 49 51 58 55.0 52.2 47.7
3 Tennessee SEC 60 66 25 64 47.7 45.7 46.2
4 East Tennessee St. SC 38 36 78 47 50.3 56.6 44.3
5 Alabama SEC 53 51 41 70 56.7 32.1 30.2
6 Richmond A10 44 42 72 53 62.7 27.7 27.2
7 Virginia Tech ACC 58 67 62 55 58.0 29.6 22.2
8 Oregon St. P12 59 54 52 63 64.7 26.5 16.0
9 Utah P12 64 63 44 59 89.3 11.1 14.5
10 Oklahoma St. B12 68 74 39 57 57.3 21.4 9.1
11 Utah St. MWC 65 58 66 62 69.7 16.6 8.7
12 Cincinnati Amer 61 60 65 76 50.7 15.8 8.6
13 USC P12 77 85 45 65 76.3 5.5 7.5
14 Duquesne A10 54 41 93 54 72.0 10.5 5.2
15 SMU Amer 62 52 77 60 70.7 11.5 4.5
16 TCU B12 69 72 58 66 55.7 13.0 4.2
17 St. John's BE 78 78 29 71 80.3 21.5 3.9
18 DePaul BE 88 84 30 61 76.0 6.3 3.5
19 Pittsburgh ACC 76 93 67 75 70.3 1.4 3.1
20 Notre Dame ACC 63 91 84 85 56.7 2.6 2.2
21 Temple Amer 67 73 75 79 76.7 5.7 2.2
22 Georgia SEC 79 90 47 74 76.0 10.1 1.7
23 UNC Greensboro SC 73 61 81 78 81.0 21.1 1.4
24 Rhode Island A10 75 64 90 73 84.0 5.7 0.8
25 Mississippi St. SEC 74 94 73 88 57.0 5.1 0.8
26 Missouri SEC 66 92 59 86 66.7 4.6 0.6
27 New Mexico MWC 80 102 103 83 89.7 3.1 0.3
28 Connecticut Amer 89 97 69 95 79.7 2.7 0.2
29 Providence BE 84 76 53 80 64.3 4.4 0.2
30 Miami FL ACC 97 87 55 69 83.3 0.9 0.1
31 Saint Louis A10 91 71 94 68 109.7 3.1 0.1
32 Kent St. MAC 71 83 129 84 95.0 16.7 0.1
33 Nevada MWC 81 68 113 87 87.3 11.2 0.1
34 Harvard Ivy 85 86 126 92 90.7 33.0 0.0
35 Texas B12 96 113 60 77 76.3 1.1 0.0
36 Bradley MVC 86 81 140 101 101.7 15.7 0.0
37 Santa Clara WCC 109 95 95 82 127.7 1.9 0.0
38 Stony Brook AE 102 79 121 91 120.3 35.9 0.0
39 Indiana St. MVC 103 82 122 90 128.0 17.3 0.0
40 Western Kentucky CUSA 110 110 120 106 105.7 11.3 0.0
41 Arizona St. P12 94 112 79 96 90.0 0.9 0.0
42 Boise St. MWC 113 118 100 113 100.0 2.7 0.0
43 Syracuse ACC 83 103 85 111 70.0 1.0 0.0
44 Penn Ivy 129 98 110 93 134.7 16.6 0.0
45 Loyola Chicago MVC 115 99 134 126 107.3 11.8 0.0
46 San Francisco WCC 124 114 104 117 113.3 1.8 0.0
47 Radford BSth 111 124 124 133 125.3 30.2 0.0
48 Ball St. MAC 104 101 150 145 108.7 16.4 0.0
49 UCF Amer 114 117 105 122 102.3 1.3 0.0
50 Pacific WCC 133 119 115 114 145.0 0.6 0.0
51 Davidson A10 95 115 101 131 85.0 1.4 0.0
52 St. Bonaventure A10 127 121 114 136 109.7 0.4 0.0
53 Wofford SC 120 139 123 132 119.7 3.5 0.0
54 Western Carolina SC 131 122 116 105 150.7 4.7 0.0
55 Clemson ACC 105 109 71 112 85.3 0.9 0.0
56 Iowa St. B12 99 129 61 94 63.0 1.1 0.0
57 Drake MVC 137 105 141 100 145.7 6.8 0.0
58 William & Mary CAA 123 107 154 119 151.7 15.6 0.0
59 North Carolina ACC 108 135 64 110 72.0 0.3 0.0
60 La Salle A10 155 111 106 108 156.7 0.8 0.0
61 North Texas CUSA 116 106 147 118 120.7 17.7 0.0
62 UC Irvine BW 106 134 191 168 118.3 25.3 0.0
63 Tulsa Amer 125 136 99 142 118.3 0.8 0.0
64 Little Rock SB 146 132 143 134 164.3 10.8 0.0

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Those are bart numbers. Bart has us #18. We have played 4 of our 15 games away from home. 8 of our next 17 games will be away from home. There has been an enormous difference in our ADJUSTED numbers home vs away. I need to see evidence that we can play near what BART says on the road. Saturday will be sample #5.

 

[Blitz Pakage]

Getting some respect here. Nice to see Pike has put us in the National picture. Yes! Road games are my concern also, but it seems that they are taking in the fact that Gio is out for now and we are still winning, but he will return.

 

[willisneverrana43]

A lot of B1G road games to go . . .

 

[Upstream]

Getting some respect here. Nice to see Pike has put us in the National picture. Yes! Road games are my concern also, but it seems that they are taking in the fact that Gio is out for now but will return.

I'm not really sure that is respect, versus just a mathematical exercise based on our wins and losses so far. Bart is projecting us to lose all our road games (but win the neutral site game vs Michigan at MSG). And even with those road losses, his algorithm puts us at a six seed. But that is also with a projection that we go undefeated at home, which is a tough task.

I guess it is good that these mathematical models rank Rutgers high, which gets analysts to talk about us. Hopefully it is good for recruiting. But as Pike says, there is a lot of basketball left to be played. And he doesn't want our players to get caught up into the hype.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I'm not really sure that is respect, versus just a mathematical exercise based on our wins and losses so far. Bart is projecting us to lose all our road games (but win the neutral site game vs Michigan at MSG). And even with those road losses, his algorithm puts us at a six seed. But that is also with a projection that we go undefeated at home, which is a tough task.

I guess it is good that these mathematical models rank Rutgers high, which gets analysts to talk about us. Hopefully it is good for recruiting. But as Pike says, there is a lot of basketball left to be played. And he doesn't want our players to get caught up into the hype.

that is incorrect
Sat 1-11 Illinois +1.5, 66-64 43%
Wed 1-22 Iowa +2.8, 72-70 39%
Sat 2-01 Michigan -0.4, 67-66 52%
Tue 2-04 Maryland +3.5, 66-63 35%
Wed 2-12 Ohio St. +7.1, 67-60 22%
Sun 2-23 Wisconsin +2.5, 61-58 38%
Wed 2-26 Penn St. +3, 70-67 38%
Sat 3-07 Purdue +2.7, 59-56 37%

bart expects us to win 3.04 games away from the RAC

 

[bac2therac]

A lot of B1G road games to go . . .

Yup have to win a couple..very few at larges given to 1-10 or 2-9 road teams

 

[RUPete]

Things are starting to get silly now.

 

[Upstream]

that is incorrect
Sat 1-11 Illinois +1.5, 66-64 43%
Wed 1-22 Iowa +2.8, 72-70 39%
Sat 2-01 Michigan -0.4, 67-66 52%
Tue 2-04 Maryland +3.5, 66-63 35%
Wed 2-12 Ohio St. +7.1, 67-60 22%
Sun 2-23 Wisconsin +2.5, 61-58 38%
Wed 2-26 Penn St. +3, 70-67 38%
Sat 3-07 Purdue +2.7, 59-56 37%

bart expects us to win 3.04 games away from the RAC

You are correct. I should have looked at the winning percentage. I was taking each red game as a 100% loss and each green game as a 100% win. My error for trying to take the easy way out.

 

[bac2therac]

Things are starting to get silly now.

Agree. If Rutgers gets to 7-3 in league then count me as going all in. There are just too many games to be played vs other schools at the same level of Rutgers. Rutgers has certainly positioned themselves well so far doing all the right things

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

Let’s just win out and grab a 1 seed...it would
suck if the St. Bona game cost us the number 1 overall seed though.:Wink:

 

[Scarlet Knut]

I think the #6 seed is about right. I think we can win at least two more road games. Northwestern and one other.

 

[RUPete]

Agree. If Rutgers gets to 7-3 in league then count me as going all in. There are just too many games to be played vs other schools at the same level of Rutgers. Rutgers has certainly positioned themselves well so far doing all the right things

I really think there shouldn’t be any rankings until Feb. 1 and no bubble talk until Presidents Day, but I know that’s not realistic.

 

[knightfan7]

Agree. If Rutgers gets to 7-3 in league then count me as going all in. There are just too many games to be played vs other schools at the same level of Rutgers. Rutgers has certainly positioned themselves well so far doing all the right things

And the back end of the schedule is very difficult.

 

[RUHouston]

And the back end of the schedule is very difficult.

You mean to say that’s what the rest of the B1G is saying when they see us in their schedules!

 

[Blitz Pakage]

Things are starting to get silly now.

Yep! Things are getting silly, but fun again. Long way to go! No Doubt, but it's better talking about our projected fate this year. Last year we were happy just to post on how we may get a by in the Big Ten Tourney!

 

[knightfan7]

Yep! Things are getting silly, but fun again. Long way to go! No Doubt, but it's better talking about our projected fate this year. Last year we were happy just to post on how we may get a by in the Big Ten Tourney!

Absolutely right that it's fun again as is most of the football side.

The only problem is when the first thing goes wrong this place will revert to it's "The world is coming to an end!" mentality.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

I think the #6 seed is about right. I think we can win at least two more road games. Northwestern and one other.

Northwestern is a home game. I agree we can get at least two more away from the RAC though.

This projection has 12 B1G bids. That is not likely regardless of current rankings.

 

[Blitz Pakage]

Absolutely right that it's fun again as is most of the football side.

The only problem is when the first thing goes wrong this place will revert to it's "The world is coming to an end!" mentality.

There will be downs this year in this Conference! Just try to avoid the heavy slide, like what Ohio State is going through right now. We can't have 3 loses in a row or it negates the great start we already put together.

 

[t_time]

I admittedly dont follow BBall as much as FBall..especially outside of Rutgers.
However, i find myself making the time to watch this team as much as possible

Is the thought, to finish 8-7 over the last 15 with at least 1 win against (PSU,Mich, Mary, OSU) and the team dances? I see 6 of the last 10 games are against ranked opponents...I assume get 20 wins and limping down the stretch still puts this team at risk

 

[Scarlet Knut]

Northwestern is a home game. I agree we can get at least two more away from the RAC though.

This projection has 12 B1G bids. That is not likely regardless of current rankings.

I don't care how many the B1G gets, as long as Rutgers gets one. I think we will.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

Is the thought, to finish 8-7 over the last 15 with at least 1 win against (PSU,Mich, Mary, OSU) and the team dances? I see 6 of the last 10 games are against ranked opponents...I assume get 20 wins and limping down the stretch still puts this team at risk

We have 16 games left in the regular season. If we go 8-8, we finish 20-11 (11-9 in conference play). Win one in the B1G to be 12-10 against B1G opponents and we are good shape because of the perception of the league this year. However, how we finish does matter and if we go 7-1 followed by 1-7, that is a red flag to the committee. At least, how you play in your last 10 used to matter. If we get to 13-7 or better, we'll be in. We would have a very strong resume at that point.

Defend the RAC (eight more home games), steal 2+ on the road, and we will be happy.

 

[Upstream]

You mean to say that’s what the rest of the B1G is saying when they see us in their schedules!

I'm sure when the schedules came out, and Maryland saw that their last three games were Mich St, Rutgers, and Michigan, they were happy that Rutgers gave them a breather. Now that the season is underway, they are probably thinking all three games are a tough finish.

 

[Blitz Pakage]

The rest of the January slate of games! This is a key stretch. 4 of the next 6 games are at home (Indiana, Minn, Nebraska, Purdue). So win them! Yeah, I know this is not an easy accomplishment in this Conference and without Geo, but I feel we are playing better than all of them at the moment (so why not). Steal 1 of 2 on the road, either Illinois or Iowa. This puts us at 17-4. 8-2 in Conference. Even if we stumble and lose 1 at home that still puts us in a good position at 16-5, 7-3 half way through the Conference. So this month is big to continue to talk positively in solidifying a spot in the Dance.

 

[fbc1866]

We need to win the next six games, before facing Maryland/Michigan. It starts tomorrow. Just win...

 

[RutgHoops]

A Rutgers (6) v Virginia (11) might have an O/U in the 80s

 

[Blitz Pakage]

We need to win the next six games, before facing Maryland/Michigan. It starts tomorrow. Just win...

I can see us splitting with Michigan if not winning them both. Really no home game for them here. Seton Hall handled Maryland at Maryland in their next game after we blew them out without their stars on the floor. So 1W there should be doable.

 

[RutgHoops]

I can see us splitting with Michigan if not winning them both. Really no home game for them here. Seton Hall handled Maryland at Maryland in their next game after we blew them out without their stars on the floor. So 1W there should be doable.

 

[ScarletDave]

Did people think that when we finally made the NCAAs that we’d be a 16 seed or something ... that’s not how this works when you’re in the big ten lol ... if you’re good enough to get in, that means you’re actually good

 

[Blitz Pakage]

That's great man and completely a true fact! And that also means completely full of air if no water exists in the glass.

 

[bac2therac]

11 conference wins puts us near lock unless something funky happens

 

[Scarlet Shack]

We need to win the next six games, before facing Maryland/Michigan. It starts tomorrow. Just win...

Seriously, that’s asking a lot

Seriously, if we win the next 6 games and get to 9-1/18-3....we won’t be worried about making the tournament. We will be the thinking one seed. And it would be justified thinking it ....

 

[RUJMM78]

Yup have to win a couple..very few at larges given to 1-10 or 2-9 road teams

This will be a interesting factor to watch since the B1G has shown to be a over whelming home court league.How will the NCAA Committee evaluate B1G teams when so many will have at least 6 road losses ?

 

[Pancho1939_rivals]

I know this is a lot of fun thinking about the NCAA tournement but I think we need to pump the breaks... let’s get to feb 1 to assess where we are. We could easily lose four in a row. over next 6 games 3-3 would be ok, 4-2 would be great, 5-1 puts us in the tournament. Then we can start having some fun