Rutgers is 5-2 in the B1G
- Thread starter BillyC80
- Start date
Tied for 4th in the conference. Nice.
We need to keep racking up wins with that February gauntlet looming
When Iowa, even at home, is the friendly part of you schedule, you have a gauntlet of a conference
If we didn't lose to DePaul, Lafayette, and UMass, we would be ranked.
Actually the conference is really bad this year. Probably on pace to only get 6-7 teams in the tournament unless something changes drastically. Maybe that change could be us who knows. But conference is very down.
Really bad? Cmon. That’s absurd. Not as good as the last couple of years? That’s different
Not true at all. Go look at any bracket prediction right now and you'll see anywhere from 8-10 B1G teams in the field.
If Michigan doesn’t get back to elite play which I admit they could get it righted, the it’s bad overall quality without a title challenger imo. That’s ok though it’s not a big deal but that’s really bad if the condense is thin without power at the top.
People aren’t going to be lining up to play Purdue or Illinois in March. Michigan State? Wisconsin?
Really like Illinois personally, was on them as a title contender super early last year. Hope they can do it as I like Underwood but the idk if the big struggles in the tournament are gone for good a lot of core players still around from those teams
Well, there are five teams ranked in the top 20 right now. Gotta figure they are all projected to be in. Iowa was in, Indiana in if the season ended today... I think we are most likely to get seven or eight bids as a league.
Rutgers could play a big part in the big struggling to get teams in if we get close to .500 in conference.
DePaul is pretty good but I'd sure like like have the other two. UMASS would be a road win too
Bart gives penn state, Nebraska, Maryland, nw Rutgers under 1% to make tournament, Minnesota 1.2% Michigan 13%
And if we also didn’t lose to Illinois, Penn state, and seton hall we would be #1!
Barts simulation model is a little flawed because it assumes that his rankings are correct. He should really be accounting for uncertainty in the team rankings. One way to do this is to start with the current rankings and then as you simulate games for one day, then recompute the rankings with the simulated results included, then simulate the next day, etc.
RU is playing like a tourney team right now. After that display of defense tonight, no one is gonna want to play us in the big dance.
Bart had us as 0.3% so technically it should be 333:1. Though that does not include today’s results yet.
I would not give 20 to 1 at this point, probably not 10 to 1 even. Bart can't let go of our bad losses when predicted future outcomes. We can see the effort and play is so much improved. Just gotta keep pounding nails and hoping the eye test overcomes the turkey losses when the dust settles.
Admittedly I suck at these probability discussions. But if the first 67 teams are in, and we’re vying for the last spot out of the remaining 286 D1 teams, how can our odds (or any remaining team’s odds) ever be greater than 286:1?
Because the field isn't selected randomly. To make things a little simpler imagine if their were no automatic bids. What would Maine's chance of making the tournament be?
We have 13 more regular season games left. For sake of argument, imagine we have a 50% chance of winning each one of them - a coin flip. If we needed at least 9 heads on those 13 coin flips to get to 20 wins, we'd only have about a 13% chance of getting that many if we flipped a coin 13 times.
But these aren't coin flips - each of the remaining games as a predicted likelihood of us winning, and the large majority are below a 50% chance (some far below 50%). So our chance of getting to 20 wins is low.... and then there's still no guarantee we'd be in the field with 20 wins, depending on what else happens with other teams (like bid stealers, etc).
what the heck does bart know, this isnt the same team from non conference, you can throw all those computers and analytics out the window...and the NET nitty gritty is the only thing that counts
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