College basketball point spreads very closely mirror the KemPom (and similar metrics) predictions.
Longer term it would give weight to the fact KemPom is very accurate longer term, or at least the best predictor of games.
Given this, really have found it strange in the last few games the point spreads have not even slightly diverged from the KemPom.
RU is a better than average home team AND clearly they were a team playing much better then their season long rating.
Not saying KemPom should have been ignored, but would think the RU extra home advantage and their clear trend upwards would make bettors sway even a little and push the lines a a little bit more towards RU.
Think Illinois game ended within 1/2 a point to where KemPom predicted. Would have thought all the "intangibles" would have pushed the line even modestly say 2 points towards RU.
Only theory I have is professional gamblers/computer bettors start to hit any game that diverges from the KemPom, just playing the law of averages? This keeping the money flow relatively the same on both sides and the lines not moving much?
Longer term it would give weight to the fact KemPom is very accurate longer term, or at least the best predictor of games.
Given this, really have found it strange in the last few games the point spreads have not even slightly diverged from the KemPom.
RU is a better than average home team AND clearly they were a team playing much better then their season long rating.
Not saying KemPom should have been ignored, but would think the RU extra home advantage and their clear trend upwards would make bettors sway even a little and push the lines a a little bit more towards RU.
Think Illinois game ended within 1/2 a point to where KemPom predicted. Would have thought all the "intangibles" would have pushed the line even modestly say 2 points towards RU.
Only theory I have is professional gamblers/computer bettors start to hit any game that diverges from the KemPom, just playing the law of averages? This keeping the money flow relatively the same on both sides and the lines not moving much?
Last edited: