RIP Monte Hall

[ezsoil]

He was 96

 

[Crazy Cotton]

and inventor of one of the most frustrating math problems ever:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

 

[tatedog]

I've seen theoreticians say the advantage is in switching, but I just can't grasp it, like most elementary mathematical concepts.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

There are three doors. Two doors go to hell and one to heaven. St. Peter let's Monte pick one of the three doors. Then St. Peter shows one of the two doors Monte didn't chose and that it leads to hell. St. Peter offers Monte the chance to switch doors? Should he?

 

[tatedog]

Can he ask which door Hef chose?

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Two good ways to rephrase this problem.

1) There are three doors, one with a car behind it. You can either pick one door (equivalent to the stay option in the traditional problem) or two doors (equivalent to the switch option). If a car is behind any door you pick, you win. Do you pick one door or two doors?
2) There are one hundred doors. One of them has a car behind it. You pick a door. Immediately 98 of the other doors open, all showing goats. Should you switch?

 

[tatedog]

Two good ways to rephrase this problem.

1) There are three doors, one with a car behind it. You can either pick one door (equivalent to the stay option in the traditional problem) or two doors (equivalent to the switch option). If a car is behind any door you pick, you win. Do you pick one door or two doors?
2) There are one hundred doors. One of them has a car behind it. You pick a door. Immediately 98 of the other doors open, all showing goats. Should you switch?

Those are actually good explanations.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

Is it because the door you choose first had a 33% chance of being right...then when one door is eliminated, if you switch the chance goes up to 50%?

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Is it because the door you choose first had a 33% chance of being right...then when one door is eliminated, if you switch the chance goes up to 50%?

No. You have 67% chance with switching.

From Wikipedia:
View attachment 8101

 

[dawgoneyall]

He was 96

Hope he doesn't hear some one holler " Come on down".

 

[SedLexDuraLex]

Is it because the door you choose first had a 33% chance of being right...then when one door is eliminated, if you switch the chance goes up to 50%?

Yes.

 

[Dawg1976]

Probably won't. Wrong game show.

 

[mount lefroy]

Is it because the door you choose first had a 33% chance of being right...then when one door is eliminated, if you switch the chance goes up to 50%?

Close. The percentage of the door opened moves to the one you chose when there were 3 with no information from the host. The host always opens a 'bad' door, thus moving that doors percentage to the unopened door you DIDNT choose.

Of course, you lose 33% of the time in this scenario even when switching, but you can win quite a bit of money because it's mathematically true.

 

[RivaDawg]

He now knows we what's behind door number 2!

 

[Junction John]

Monte's own personal hell might be being mistaken for Bob Barker for eternity**

Probably won't. Wrong game show.

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