Reasonable Expectations

bigmatt718

Heisman
Mar 11, 2013
15,869
22,354
113
After leaving the last two home football games in the fourth quarter, because I am getting tired of listening to the opposing teams fans moving down to field level and cheering their team, I thought about what are reasonable expectations for this football team and this coach. We are in the third year of a seven year contract. We had 3 conference wins in 2020 season, 2 in 2021 and 1 so far this season with one to play.

We play against OSU, Mich, PSU, MSU, Indiana, and Maryland. Since we have been in the BIG we have 0 wins against OSU and PSU, and 1 win against Michigan and MSU each. We are slightly more competitive against Indiana and Maryland. I believe we can be more competitive with MSU, Indiana, and, Maryland in the next 4 years. Add in three games against West teams, and three OOC each year and that is our 12 games.

We are not competitive against OSU, Mich, and PSU, so there are three losses each year. In a really good year say we beat all three OOC, all three west teams and MSU, Indiana, and Maryland. That would be a 9-3 record. I think this is the upside longshot. Conversely in a bad year we lose to OSU, Mich, and PSU; lose 2 of three to our remaining East opponents, lose 2 of 3 to our West opponents, and win 2 of our 3 OOC. that is a 4-8 record, similar to this year. An average year would be 7-5 or 6-6. I am basing this on Coach Schiano's performance in the Big East, and so far in his three years in the BIG.

Once USC and UCLA join the conference will realign. I believe the BIG will protect the OSU, Mich, and PSU trio and move either Illinois or Northwestern into the East. Our record will probably stay about the same because we will then be playing only 2 teams from the west. If Wisconsin or Iowa come into the East instead our record will suffer.
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I think this is a reasonable expectation of our future performance. With the portal and NIL we will not gain any ground on OSU, Mich, and PSU or the better teams in the West, we can only hope to catch up or surpass the other three teams in the East. Feel free to comment.
Divisions are dissolving once USC/UCLA enter the B1G. There will be one or 2 protected rivalries and the rest of the schedule will rotate.
 

Shelby65

All-Conference
Apr 1, 2008
8,413
4,670
66
Cream rises to the top and crap finds the bottom. Division change won’t matter. Coaching change more likely to.
 

wheezer

Heisman
Jun 3, 2001
169,869
25,554
113
I don't remember a single preseason prediction that had us winning more than 4 games. That's why the O/U on wins was 4.5.
Why is everyone so surprised/disappointed at our record? We are what we were expected to be.
Devil’s advocate
The whole idea is to exceed expectations

Michigan state did it last year and were the darlings of the media

I would hope that we have such a year

If we just live up to expectations year after year we remain pretty miserable
 
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Knightmoves

Heisman
Jul 31, 2001
30,532
16,474
113
I don't remember a single preseason prediction that had us winning more than 4 games. That's why the O/U on wins was 4.5.
Why is everyone so surprised/disappointed at our record? We are what we were expected to be.
It’s the number of blowout losses, revolving QB door and lack of discipline (penalties) that bother many fans.

It’s one thing to go 4-8 with competitive efforts during conference play and another to suffer 5 blowout losses including some to average teams.
 
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Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
88,946
86,947
113
It’s the number of blowout losses, revolving QB door and lack of discipline (penalties) that bother many fans.

It’s one thing to go 4-8 with competitive efforts during conference play and another to suffer 5 blowout losses including some to average teams.
I'm with you on the blowout losses and penalties.

The revolving QB door was really nobody's doing because of injuries, but the counterpoint to that point is they could have just gone with Gavin from day 1 and MAYBE he would not have been hurt in the Temple game, but the counterpoint to that counterpoint was our OL performed poorly that game, and more reps may have led to his injury anyway, if that makes any sense-turkey hangover post.

BTW, I count 4 blowout losses, as the Iowa loss was not really a blowout, but opinions vary on these things.

To some, a win against Maryland may be a season salve, or perhaps it may trigger more anger and frustration and debate.

I need to go vomit.
 
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Knightmoves

Heisman
Jul 31, 2001
30,532
16,474
113
I'm with you on the blowout losses and penalties.

The revolving QB door was really nobody's doing because of injuries, but the counterpoint to that point is they could have just gone with Gavin from day 1 and MAYBE he would not have been hurt in the Temple game, but the counterpoint to that counterpoint was our OL performed poorly that game, and more reps may have led to his injury anyway, if that makes any sense-turkey hangover post.

BTW, I count 4 blowout losses, as the Iowa loss was not really a blowout, but opinions vary on these things.

To some, a win against Maryland may be a season salve, or perhaps it may trigger more anger and frustration and debate.

I need to go vomit.
Let’s revisit this after the Maryland game tomorrow. If we are competitive I will revise the number of blowout losses to 4.
 
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Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
88,946
86,947
113
Let’s revisit this after the Maryland game tomorrow. If we are competitive I will revise the number of blowout losses to 4.
My prediction notwithstanding, think that tomorrow will be a blowout. One never knows, however, but their keeping the Michigan and Ohio State games close seems problematic for RU.
 
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ScarletKid2008

Heisman
Sep 8, 2006
8,041
10,545
113
I don't remember a single preseason prediction that had us winning more than 4 games. That's why the O/U on wins was 4.5.
Why is everyone so surprised/disappointed at our record? We are what we were expected to be.

This is constantly the lamest excuse and the answer is because we’ve done nothing prior to this season to earn a respectable prediction and we’ve done nothing this season to earn any better of a prediction for next season.

Just because we were picked to do bad. Doesn’t mean people should just accept the outcome of this season. Which has essentially left us with zero hope or expectation that next season could be any better.
 

Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
88,946
86,947
113
This is constantly the lamest excuse and the answer is because we’ve done nothing prior to this season to earn a respectable prediction and we’ve done nothing this season to earn any better of a prediction for next season.

Just because we were picked to do bad. Doesn’t mean people should just accept the outcome of this season. Which has essentially left us with zero hope or expectation that next season could be any better.
Should be the end of thread right there--we suck, we expect to continue to suck, and when we meet expectations, where is the upside?
 

ScarletKid2008

Heisman
Sep 8, 2006
8,041
10,545
113
Should be the end of thread right there--we suck, we expect to continue to suck, and when we meet expectations, where is the upside?

Yes. As simple as that.

We will highly likely continue to suck until we develop an average or above average player in the QB position. Plain and simple.
 
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Plum Street

Heisman
Jun 21, 2009
27,306
23,009
0
If we can’t win 6 or more games most years (say on average 4 out of 5 years), we need to leave this conference.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,228
12,378
82
I don't remember a single preseason prediction that had us winning more than 4 games. That's why the O/U on wins was 4.5.
Why is everyone so surprised/disappointed at our record? We are what we were expected to be.
Because GS outperformed in the 1st 4 games. Gave everyone hope.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,228
12,378
82
If we can’t win 6 or more games most years (say on average 4 out of 5 years), we need to leave this conference.
Why is Indiana still here? We can probably content in the AAC. Budget and support is more inline with peers. Might even hold an edge to the peers for once.
 

Plum Street

Heisman
Jun 21, 2009
27,306
23,009
0
Why is Indiana still here? We can probably content in the AAC. Budget and support is more inline with peers. Might even hold an edge to the peers for once.
This isn’t about Indiana. I am just talking rutgers . Haven’t seen anything that shows me we belong in this league in 9 seasons. Maybe one day.
best was 3-5 in year 1.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,228
12,378
82
This isn’t about Indiana. I am just talking rutgers . Haven’t seen anything that shows me we belong in this league in 9 seasons. Maybe one day
That’s really sacrificing all other sports for football. The money will impact all sports and bring them on par or even ahead of most. Football will always fall behind because of “additional funds” coming from donors.
 

Plum Street

Heisman
Jun 21, 2009
27,306
23,009
0
That’s really sacrificing all other sports for football. The money will impact all sports and bring them on par or even ahead of most. Football will always fall behind because of “additional funds” coming from donors.
Not sure what good it does every Saturday getting our brains beaten in . If that’s the case , would like to see us move down in competition
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,228
12,378
82
Not sure what good it does every Saturday getting our brains beaten in . If that’s the case , would like to see us move down in competition
After you hit the mega million tonight, you can hire a big time coach to turn it around.
 

Plum Street

Heisman
Jun 21, 2009
27,306
23,009
0
After you hit the mega million tonight, you can hire a big time coach to turn it around.
I would keep schiano and give him a chance . I would buy players. I think this program needs a Nevin Shapiro type and plum would deliver
 

Morrischiano2

All-American
Dec 3, 2019
5,956
7,718
0
This team isn't making progress on the field or off the field. AS the OP stated conference wins have moved in the wrong direction and we lack skill players on offense. Recruiting for 2023 is moving in the wrong direction too.

Throw whatever excuses you want up, but look at a team like Illinois. They have no financial or recruiting advantage yet emerged from the Lovie Smith wilderness with the right coach who's got them going in the right direction.

Schiano is firing staff and losing to other doormats; while the blowouts continue.
I fear that we are going to be stuck in mediocrity and irrelevance for the foreseeable future.
 

wheezer

Heisman
Jun 3, 2001
169,869
25,554
113
I'm with you on the blowout losses and penalties.

The revolving QB door was really nobody's doing because of injuries, but the counterpoint to that point is they could have just gone with Gavin from day 1 and MAYBE he would not have been hurt in the Temple game, but the counterpoint to that counterpoint was our OL performed poorly that game, and more reps may have led to his injury anyway, if that makes any sense-turkey hangover post.

BTW, I count 4 blowout losses, as the Iowa loss was not really a blowout, but opinions vary on these things.

To some, a win against Maryland may be a season salve, or perhaps it may trigger more anger and frustration and debate.

I need to go vomit.
That Iowa final score was deceptive and did not show how close that game should have been
 
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Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
88,946
86,947
113
That Iowa final score was deceptive and did not show how close that game should have been
That is sort of my though about that, but maybe that is a shoulda, coulda woulda blowout loss? here should be a blowout loss rule that you only get one shoulda, coulda woulda bllowout loss per season? 😁
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,228
12,378
82
This team isn't making progress on the field or off the field. AS the OP stated conference wins have moved in the wrong direction and we lack skill players on offense. Recruiting for 2023 is moving in the wrong direction too.

Throw whatever excuses you want up, but look at a team like Illinois. They have no financial or recruiting advantage yet emerged from the Lovie Smith wilderness with the right coach who's got them going in the right direction.

Schiano is firing staff and losing to other doormats; while the blowouts continue.
I fear that we are going to be stuck in mediocrity and irrelevance for the foreseeable future.
Who are we losing to that are doormats? GS already beat Illinois last year. You don’t understand math if you think Illinois doesn’t have a financial advantage.
 

RU#1fan

Heisman
Mar 7, 2003
23,667
12,375
113
Who are we losing to that are doormats? GS already beat Illinois last year. You don’t understand math if you think Illinois doesn’t have a financial advantage.
Ummm. Have you seen Nebraska’s performance in B1G games this year ?
Michigan St. is not exactly a good program…. A game that could have been won with better in game coaching.
Illinois like RU trying to build NIL funds through grassroots efforts. The Illinois Guardians group starting off like us…. let’s see where it goes for the non-blue bloods B1G programs.
 
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Retired711

Heisman
Nov 20, 2001
19,971
10,151
58
Divisions are dissolving once USC/UCLA enter the B1G. There will be one or 2 protected rivalries and the rest of the schedule will rotate.
I wonder whether perhaps the addition of USC and UCLA will lead to the continuation of divisions in order to minimize the number of times their teams have to travel three time zones for games. It seems to me that the vote to abandon divisions came before USC and UCLA joined, and so perhaps the decision will be reconsidered.
 

Yeah Baby

All-American
Aug 14, 2001
19,261
6,466
0
The problem is the O/U will probably be the same in 23, 24 and 25. Also just because the O/u is 4-5 doesn’t mean we hav to meet that expectation, Illinois and Kansas probably had the same O/U
Doesn’t mean the usual suspects need to ***** about it either. Repeatedly. You also don’t need to cherry pick other teams because for every team that exceeded there has to be a team that fell short of their expectations. I’m happy for Kansas. When was the last time they were even decent?9
 

Morrischiano2

All-American
Dec 3, 2019
5,956
7,718
0
Who are we losing to that are doormats? GS already beat Illinois last year. You don’t understand math if you think Illinois doesn’t have a financial advantage.
Yeahhhh. I must not. Rutgers spent $118M on athletics in 2021. Illinois spent $102M on athletics in 2021. Show me the financial advantage of Illinois. Go ahead. Use facts.
 

Shelby65

All-Conference
Apr 1, 2008
8,413
4,670
66
Yeah we spent more but on Schiano’s 15 year rebuild plan. Spend now for later, like stocking up on batteries for the next Superstorm Sandy. Does that help explain and justify Morris ? Just win (eventually), baby!
 

Morrischiano2

All-American
Dec 3, 2019
5,956
7,718
0
Yeah we spent more but on Schiano’s 15 year rebuild plan. Spend now for later, like stocking up on batteries for the next Superstorm Sandy. Does that help explain and justify Morris ? Just win (eventually), baby!
no, not at all.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,228
12,378
82
Yeahhhh. I must not. Rutgers spent $118M on athletics in 2021. Illinois spent $102M on athletics in 2021. Show me the financial advantage of Illinois. Go ahead. Use facts.
The athletics division’s $53.2 million share of Big Ten Conference revenue in 2021-22 — much of it from television — was whittled down by more than $10 million to repay two loans from the conference, leaving Rutgers with yet another sizable budget gap.

you are welcome.
 

nyurutgers

Freshman
Dec 26, 2020
37
57
0
I did not start this thread to be negative but just to get an idea of what a reasonable expectation for football would be going forward. I am not a Schiano fan but from his track record I do not think it is impossible for him to get to a consistent 6-6 and 7-5 record, with occasionally a better/worse year. I do not think he is the person to lead us to challenge the top teams. I am not sure that RU and its fans have the will or resources to do that anyway. All the other teams currently in the BIG, except for us and Maryland have had BIG revenues for many years that enabled them to build facilities for football as well as other sports. We have started well behind them, and will need to devote a great deal of resources to football to move to a point to challenge the upper level teams. I do not think it is worth it if it comes at the expense of other sports. We are finally providing facilities and quality coaches and staff and we are seeing successes. Personally I am good with a 7-5 or 6-6 annual football record on average if our other sports produce championships. Honestly, I think many of the other members of the BIG have followed this strategy.

I see the need for NIL contributions but they should not be exclusively for the football program, I think it needs to be spread equitably among the sports.
 

Morrischiano2

All-American
Dec 3, 2019
5,956
7,718
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The athletics division’s $53.2 million share of Big Ten Conference revenue in 2021-22 — much of it from television — was whittled down by more than $10 million to repay two loans from the conference, leaving Rutgers with yet another sizable budget gap.

you are welcome.
You are wrong.

Again, we spend more than Illinois. Also, Illinois has the second largest athletic department accumulated debt in the nation ($325M), which they have to service.

So their loans are waaay bigger than ours and we spend more money than they do.

So you are wrong. You don't understand the facts on the ground, or math, if you think Illinois has a large financial advantage.

At least admit it, or educate yourself.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,228
12,378
82
You are wrong.

Again, we spend more than Illinois. Also, Illinois has the second largest athletic department accumulated debt in the nation ($325M), which they have to service.

So their loans are waaay bigger than ours and we spend more money than they do.

So you are wrong. You don't understand the facts on the ground, or math, if you think Illinois has a large financial advantage.

At least admit it, or educate yourself.
SMH, the 10mm loan repayment is part of that spending. Just use your common sense. Which coach gets pay more? Why is Illinois accumulating more debt than us if they spend less and gets more money than us? All of this adds up to you?
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,228
12,378
82
You are wrong.

Again, we spend more than Illinois. Also, Illinois has the second largest athletic department accumulated debt in the nation ($325M), which they have to service.

So their loans are waaay bigger than ours and we spend more money than they do.

So you are wrong. You don't understand the facts on the ground, or math, if you think Illinois has a large financial advantage.

At least admit it, or educate yourself.
Illinois
2019 - 120.17mm
2020 - 121.64mm
2021 - 102.0mm

RU
2019 - 103.0mm
2020 - 102.8mm
2021 - 118.0mm

facts. another great fan
 
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