Questions about Tornadoes

[preacher_dawg]

With another tornado hitting Columbus (praying for everyone), it got me thinking about how much Columbus seems to get hit. When I lived in Mississippi, tornadoes would always go about 10 miles south or 10 miles north, and there have been a lot of them, but I never remember the town itself getting hit. Can any of you weather guys come up with a reason why this happens?

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

There’s isnt an answer because it’s just random bad luck.

 

[57stratdawg]

They tend to follow similar paths, but 10 miles is probably just a coincidence. We often see them generally traveling traveling northeast. If a line produces tornados in MS, they usually end up hitting northern Alabama too.

I know there are topographical influences too. It’s prettt rare to see a tornanado hitting a very hilly area.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Here's a map of the paths of tornadoes since 1970. You can go all the way back to 1880 in the database. Almost every tornado goes SW to NE but other than that there's explanation as to where they form other than conditions were favorable for development. I'll put the link in here so you can play around with it.

http://www.midsouthtornadoes.msstate.edu/


View attachment 12395

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

While certain areas seem to get hit with more frequency than others, there's nothing about those places that attracts them. They just form where they form. People have blamed topography, rivers, mountains, aliens, ole miss, and everything else, but none of those have any influence.

 

[preacher_dawg]

While certain areas seem to get hit with more frequency than others, there's nothing about those places that attracts them. They just form where they form. People have blamed topography, rivers, mountains, aliens, ole miss, and everything else, but none of those have any influence.

The rest I can see, but are you sure Ole Miss doesn't have anything to do with it?

 

[bullymcbullerson]

I have a theory that when people first moved there, the trees were already cleared out from the tornados making it easier to build and farm in the area.

 

[57stratdawg]

That might be more true than you realize. Rougher terrain tends to slow down the base and widen them out some. Obviously, mountains and valley impact them.

 

[saltslugs]

Topography absolutely does have an effect.

While certain areas seem to get hit with more frequency than others, there's nothing about those places that attracts them. They just form where they form. People have blamed topography, rivers, mountains, aliens, ole miss, and everything else, but none of those have any influence.

It's NOT purely random, but it's hard to extrapolate from such a small sample size.

 

[kired]

I moved to Tupelo in 2006 and since then we've had 3 tornadoes in Lee County. I live near where I've put the red dot in this picture. 2008 one came about 1/2 mile south of me, the big one in 2014 was ~2 miles away, and just had one hit my subdivision in November. Watched one trying to develop about 2 years ago that would have been 1/2 mile north of my house --- I was driving to work and the tornado warning came over the radio, but it disappeared after about a minute and never touched down. I've been lucky to not really have any damage - but have wondered what it is about this area.

View attachment 12396

 

[She Mate Me]

It's NOT purely random, but it's hard to extrapolate from such a small sample size.

Do you have any evidence? I have a meteorologist friend who says topography in Mississippi has absolutely nothing to do with where a tornado forms, although it can have a minor influence on damage inflicted.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

They don’t impact the tornado. They can impact damage but even that’s still debatable.

 

[Ozarkdawg]

Kired, the one that came through

Lee county yellow line into Itawamba hit the center of my property and to the east. Destroyed my house and shop ( got to see the house as it blew by the storm house) the blue line, hit center to west of my property. Was playing out and only downed some trees.
A year before the yellow one, a straight line storm came through within a mile of house. Seems this path has been hot for the last 5-6 years. I'm more than ready for this path to move along.

 

[TNT.sixpack]

With another tornado hitting Columbus (praying for everyone), it got me thinking about how much Columbus seems to get hit. When I lived in Mississippi, tornadoes would always go about 10 miles south or 10 miles north, and there have been a lot of them, but I never remember the town itself getting hit. Can any of you weather guys come up with a reason why this happens?

It’s a strange phenomenon, for sure. If you look at the last two tornadoes that struck Hattisburg and petal, those storms were roughly 6 years apart and yet they followed almost the exact same path. In fact when I was down there working the damages, I noticed structures damaged from the most recent tornado that were also damaged in the previous tornado only six years earlier. Same way with the last tornado that struck Tupelo. It followed almost the same path as another tornado several years earlier. While in Oklahoma attending The national tornado summit two years ago, I met a gentleman who lost his home in the Moore, Oklahoma tornado. He rebuilt the house and lost it again exactly 3 years later in a separate tornado. Crazy.

 

[the dog is on the loose]

People can believe what they want to believe but I’ve seen a pattern of them numerous times where they would come from McComb area through crystal springs to byram then through Richland. I live twenty miles south of Jackson and they nearly always come through mendenhall to Braxton, piney woods and on through Brandon. Two came within a half mile of my house and the one in ‘92 that went through Brandon came about three miles of my house.

 

[SirBarksalot]

I lived in Tupelo as a small child, some elementary school years... seemed like multiple times each spring we were in a neighbors ****** shelter or my mom was getting me out of school due to all day warnings....and there was a lingering memory of “the big one” from the past that old timers still had.

Anyway, it’s all random. Brandon seemed to be a hot spot for years too.

eventually a Tupelo neighbor made a really cool shelter with electricity/etc that was very nice and comfortable..the former was just a hole,dug in the side of a hill that was nightmarish/wet

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Do you have any evidence? I have a meteorologist friend who says topography in Mississippi has absolutely nothing to do with where a tornado forms, although it can have a minor influence on damage inflicted.

This.

 

[57stratdawg]

Well, here’s some UAH researches discussing the impact of terrain and topography on tornadoes behavior.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2013/10/25/309247.htm

I suppose your point might be that MS’ isn’t diverse enough, which probably holds some truth, but there’s a reason western TN sees more tornadoes than the other side of the state.

 

[mount lefroy]

While certain areas seem to get hit with more frequency than others, there's nothing about those places that attracts them. They just form where they form. People have blamed topography, rivers, mountains, aliens, ole miss, and everything else, but none of those have any influence.

So there is no causation to the idea that flatter areas like Kansas see more than mountainous like Colorado?

 

[SirBarksalot]

Living in Charlotte the last decade plus, tornadoes are like unicorns. Yes we’ve had a few; but the schools dont have drills, there are no sirens anywhere that I’ve seen other than close to the nuclear plant.
Apparently the Appalachian mountains mitigate the threat, but as far as regionally in MS, it’s random.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I'm talking about Mississippi. There's no topography here that would change the development of a tornado.

 

[She Mate Me]

Well, here’s some UAH researches discussing the impact of terrain and topography on tornadoes behavior.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2013/10/25/309247.htm

I suppose your point might be that MS’ isn’t diverse enough, which probably holds some truth, but there’s a reason western TN sees more tornadoes than the other side of the state.

I was really just speaking to Mississippi because it's reasonably flat, but I'm sure we have a long way to go in understanding these storms. I was honestly asking for evidence earlier in the thread, not being a smartazz (surprising, I know).

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

It has more to do with the right conditions for development and not mountains or plains. There's a reason that the central part of the US has more tornadoes than anywhere else in the world. You have the cool air from the north/Rockies colliding with Gulf moisture thats conveniently close. That's why you see very few tornadoes out west because theres no access to warm and moist air.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

People can believe what they want to believe but I’ve seen a pattern of them numerous times where they would come from McComb area through crystal springs to byram then through Richland. I live twenty miles south of Jackson and they nearly always come through mendenhall to Braxton, piney woods and on through Brandon. Two came within a half mile of my house and the one in ‘92 that went through Brandon came about three miles of my house.

There have been some areas that seem to be magnets for tornadoes but no one has a grip on an explanation why that I have read that explains it. My hometown of Smithville seemed to be in the path of every severe storm for years with no tornadoes until 2011. They had a warned storm Saturday with a rotation that tightened right as it got near that area but never touched down.

Tuscaloosa and Huntsville are a couple of others that come to mind. Tupelo seems to be magnetic for tornadic storms.

The person that figures out why is going to save lives.

 

[JoMo MoJo]

So a forest the size of Bienville National Forest has no affect? The home I grew up in is over 100 years old and built right on the tree line of the Bienville Forest and several tornados have hit in front but none have ever impacted the house. My grandfather always said it was the trees in the forest they didn’t like. I always assumed that since tornados had to have uninterrupted airflow from ground level in vast amounts then a bunch of trees would make it too turbulent

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

No that's just luck of the draw. If you go look in that tornado database at somewhere in Oklahoma and then compare it to somewhere in Mississippi you'll find many more long lived and more powerful tornadoes in the South than in the Plains and Midwest and there's a **** ton more trees in Mississippi than in any of those places. It's the atmospheric conditions and not land or trees.

 

[JoMo MoJo]

Someone should take the above map and trace all the end points and take a pic. If topography has no bearing then it should be 50/50 trees and open fields.

 

[baddawggy]

No that's just luck of the draw. If you go look in that tornado database at somewhere in Oklahoma and then compare it to somewhere in Mississippi you'll find many more long lived and more powerful tornadoes in the South than in the Plains and Midwest and there's a **** ton more trees in Mississippi than in any of those places. It's the atmospheric conditions and not land or trees.

As a former weather guru you sir have been correct on every post you have made. There is a specific pattern on weather formations that cross into Mississippi and travel north east. The hotspot patterns are Vicksburg that usually take a pattern through Kemper county into Pickens county Alabama. Some times these storms take a more northly flow through Winston and lowndes county. Then there is a track from lake village Arkansas that goes east to north east below Greenville through indianola and tracks more easterly almost a direct pattern down hwy 82 the third tracking hotspot occurs near rose dale and takes a north eastern path to New Albany or Tupelo.

There is a jet stream that flows down the Mississippi River and I believe this has has a direct correlation to the flow of these patterns.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Things I know about Naders..

Cold air meets warm air equals oh ****. And that can be down drafts from thunderstorms or fast moving cold fronts hitting gulf moisture.

Terrain can change the effects. I lived a few miles east of downtown Dallas and watched a hundred thunderstorms weaken over the years when crossing downtown due to the heat island effects. The concrete jungle can change the air temperature significantly, around 5-8 degrees and that must definitely change storm intensity.

Forests could have the opposite effect I guess. Through shade and transpiration, the air is definitely cooler in forested areas. It's just a theory but if the heat island of Dallas can weaken storms a bit, why couldn't a cool island of a forest fuel them?

Tornadoes are worse in Mississippi because you can't see the damn thing until they hit you. You have 50 miles of skyline visibility on the plains and 50 yards in the pine stands of Mississippi.

This is a snap of the highest number of tornadoes per county after adjusting for the physical size of the county. Seems like a few areas close to the gulf that are always getting storms and a bunch of areas where cool air meets Gulf of Mexico air.

View attachment 12398

 

[J-Dawg]

So there is no causation to the idea that flatter areas like Kansas see more than mountainous like Colorado?

That is due to mesoscale, continental effects rather than micro scale topography. CO doesn’t get many tornados in mountainous areas because the air mass ingredients needed to form supercell thunderstorms are not present (generally) in the western US.

 

[J-Dawg]

As a former weather guru you sir have been correct on every post you have made. There is a specific pattern on weather formations that cross into Mississippi and travel north east. The hotspot patterns are Vicksburg that usually take a pattern through Kemper county into Pickens county Alabama. Some times these storms take a more northly flow through Winston and lowndes county. Then there is a track from lake village Arkansas that goes east to north east below Greenville through indianola and tracks more easterly almost a direct pattern down hwy 82 the third tracking hotspot occurs near rose dale and takes a north eastern path to New Albany or Tupelo.

There is a jet stream that flows down the Mississippi River and I believe this has has a direct correlation to the flow of these patterns.

There’s no such thing as a jet stream down the Mississippi River.

Source: meteorology degree from State

 

[Mjoelner]

I have a theory that when people first moved there, the trees were already cleared out from the tornados making it easier to build and farm in the area.

Your theory is correct. I remember a teacher telling us in a history class in junior high or high school that when the Spaniards first explored the area that they documented large swaths of land without trees or where trees had been destroyed and they didn't know what caused it.

 

[baddawggy]

There’s no such thing as a jet stream down the Mississippi River.

Source: meteorology degree from State

ment to say mississippi river valley....my bad

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

The ingredients that form a tornado are all inside the parent storm and initiate well above the effects of trees, rivers, or anything else. Directional and speed shear create tubes of air rotating parallel to the ground. As supercells encounter these tubes, their intense updrafts sometimes bend it perpendicular to the ground and cause it to come into contact with the ground which we all know as a tornado. Topography has zip to do with that process. Now, topography may play a small role in intensity due to a wind tunnel effect much in the same way rapids form in rivers when a volume of water is squeezed through a narrower passage.

The research and money to be made is when someone figures out why some supercells produce tornadoes, but most do not.

 

[PartTimeGenius]

It all depends on where you are in relation to Butterflies

 

[the dog is on the loose]

Man I didn’t know we had so many meteorologists on this board. Can y’all tell me when it’s going to quit raining?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Man I didn’t know we had so many meteorologists on this board. Can y’all tell me when it’s going to quit raining?

July

 

[RocketDawg]

There have been some areas that seem to be magnets for tornadoes but no one has a grip on an explanation why that I have read that explains it. My hometown of Smithville seemed to be in the path of every severe storm for years with no tornadoes until 2011. They had a warned storm Saturday with a rotation that tightened right as it got near that area but never touched down.

Tuscaloosa and Huntsville are a couple of others that come to mind. Tupelo seems to be magnetic for tornadic storms.

The person that figures out why is going to save lives.

Tupelo does seem to be a magnet. The "big one" was 1936 when 216 were killed in Tupelo alone. Of course, warnings were basically nonexistent back then. Birmingham has also seen its share, as well as Jackson.

Unless I'm mistaken, Mississippi is the worst state for tornadoes. You always hear about "tornado alley" and Texas, but Texas is so much physically larger than Mississippi. Miss. has more per square mile than anywhere, I think.

At one time, Huntsville was statistically the worst "large city" for tornado strikes, but that was before the huge storms that hit Moore and Oklahoma City, so that stat could have changed. The researcher that made those claims happened to live here, so he may have been biased. Seems like he invented some sort of tornado detector that would lay on the ground. I knew the guy but can't think of his name offhand.

 

[RocketDawg]

Man I didn’t know we had so many meteorologists on this board. Can y’all tell me when it’s going to quit raining?

Good question. We've had some surprise showers pop up just in the last few minutes.