If we beat PSU, we end our regular season at 18-12. Assuming the dominoes fall in the right place, is it better for us to get a double bye and lose to a ranked team, thus finishing at 18-13 or have no byes and go, say 2-1, finishing 20-13? Plus a double bye would mean we don't play again for at least 8 days after tomorrow.
Question about double bye
- Thread starter Scarletnut
- Start date
Of course, a team that gets the double bye gets to play a team who has played the day before and possibly both games/days before. So that gives RU a built in advantage to winning that first game they would play. If they won the first game and then lost the next game (presumably vs. one of the other top four), then they would finish 19 - 13.
Getting a double bye means we only need to win 3 in a row to win the conference championship. We know we can win 3 in a row.
not in 3 days we don't know that.. not with the level of energy R D requires
Fair, but I would still like to find out.
If we get a double bye and lose our first game, it is most likely not a bad loss, we still probably get in. But how would not getting the double bye and going 2-1 in the tournmant and finishing 20-13 not be 1000 times better than finishing 18-13? Lol. We’d have two more wins, one of which would be another quad 1 win.
I mean I think the question is more single bye 19-13 vs double bye 18-13.
Either way.. I generally hate the term but not wanting the double bye is a “loser mentality” imo. Go for the conference title.
Agree. I would add that whether we get a single bye or double bye, the highest probability would be that we go 1 - 1 and finish 19 - 13. However, a double bye gives you the best chance of winning a 2nd game or more, simply from a rest standpoint. And the benefits of a double bye and making a deep run or possibly winning outright are immeasurable.
A single bye raises the possibility of matching up against a lower level team and suffering a damaging bad loss. Beating a Nebraska, Minnesota or Northwestern does little to help us but losing to them could really hurt. Chances of taking a bad loss is greatly reduced with a double bye. Getting a double bye over 4 or 5 other NCAA tournament teams also helps perception regardless of what people say about body of work, etc. and obviously we all want a chance to play for a championship.
Pretty sure we wouldn’t be favored in the first game after a double bye which would make 0-1 the most likely outcome but agree otherwise.
Are you saying we wouldn't be favored vs. a team that played the day before? I think it’s a big advantage.
You guys are all overthinking this. 4th place in the Big Ten is a guarantee tourney bid this year. Even at 18-13 would be a snub of historic proportions, wouldn’t happen. League office wouldn’t want that precedent even if it’s RU. Won’t let the committee make that decision. Stop overthinking. Beat PSU
I kinda of agree with the above. How could the NCAA not take the 4th place team in the B1G?
That’s why I’m more confident than most.
That’s why I’m more confident than most.
Well let me think in more detail.
If we are #4, Ohio State is most likely #5 (?), and they would be playing the winner of the 12/13 game which is most likely Northwestern/Minnesota (?)
(Please correct above if wrong).
In the NBA a back to back seems to hurt teams by about 1 point per 100, and a 3rd by like 1.8 per 100. Since college teams are less used to it lets call it 1.5/100 and 2/100. Since the average tempo is 67.4 we'll call that roughly 1 ppg and 1.5 ppg.
So (rough numbers)
Northwestern vs Minnesota 59/41 according to Massey
----
59% of the time:
Northwestern vs Ohio St (would be 33/67 but with Northwestern 1 ppg weaker becomes ~30/70)
41% of the time:
Minnesota vs Ohio St (would be 26/74 but with Minnesota 1 ppg weaker becomes ~24/76)
----
Which means, as the 4 seed:
59%*30% = 18% we play Northwestern on their third game in a row
41%*24% = 10% we play Minnesota on their third game in a row
The remaining 72% we play Ohio St on a back to back
----
So
72% of the time
Rutgers vs Ohio St (would be 35/65 but with Ohio St 1 ppg weaker becomes ~38/62)
18% of the time
Rutgers vs Northwestern (would be 53/47 but with Northwestern 1.5 ppg weaker becomes 57/43)
10% of the time
Rutgers vs Minnesota (would be 62/38 but with Minnesota 1.5 ppg weaker becomes 67/33)
So our chances of winning the first game
72% * 38% = 27.36%
PLUS
18% * 57% = 10.26%
PLUS
10% * 67% = 6.7%
-----------------------
44.32%
Now you could quibble with all of this (maybe you think the Rutgers/Ohio State gap is smaller than 35/65 or the Rutgers/Northwestern gap is bigger than 53/47). But this is based on Massey which is pretty charitable to us as computer ratings go (has us #50 as opposed to #79 Bart and #70 Kenpom) so I wouldn't think the true odds are too much higher than this.
Would be great exposure getting to CBS Saturday semifinal.
agree, semifinal Saturday with Jim Nantz calling your game, is a HUGE step for program
Agree that we want 4th place in the B1G so we get the double bye and it gives us a chance to make a deep run or win the conference tourney. But, in and of itself, I don’t think it has much of an effect on making the NCAA tourney. We’d have the same record as IOWA and OSU and would get 4th based on tiebreakers. You could argue that 4th place is because of our wins over those two teams, but that is already factored in by the selection committee, regardless, as Quad 1 wins. Also, are you suggesting the league office has any influence over the NCAA selection committee?
It was my understanding there would be no math.
Public relations wise hard to justify 4th place team not getting in Big Dance.
I totally agree. 4th place with the 6-7 Q1 wins is a lock to me.
i dont know.
If going for big10 title, then obv, double bye is much better.
However if pure goal is ncaa tourney with big10 title as bonus, then you could easily argue that adding an extra victory is paramount (which would mean taking single bye and beating a double digit seed team). I'd say thats not really loser mentality...but just prioritizing whats actually most important to you.
That being said...if you (anyone) think they're in already no matter what even with 0-1 in big10 tourney (after beating psu in reg season finale), then the above goes out the window and we should all want the double bye.
Take the double bye, get out to the site early, get rested, no rushing around, have a couple practices and go play.
If we dont get the double bye then Michigan is likely 16-14 and needs a deep Big 10 tourney run
It wont all be bad
It wont all be bad
I'd like to think that but if you believe that, you should be just as confident saying that if we win and we're #5 in the B1G that were in. Our getting in, isn't predicated on Iowa or Ohio State losing tomorrow
Agree, as I said above. That being said, I’d like to get 4 so as to make a deep run or possibly win the conference tourney.
I don’t care. Just want to win our game tomorrow.
We haven’t had an easy time with any game we were expected to win. Let’s hope our guys come out ready to play for once when it’s expected and give the seniors a great send off.
We haven’t had an easy time with any game we were expected to win. Let’s hope our guys come out ready to play for once when it’s expected and give the seniors a great send off.