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Purdue Statement Game

F

FloridAlum

Senior
May 29, 2001
16,227
588
0
Very often the Las Vegas line and Sagarin tend to be fairly close especially early in the year when teams do not have much of a record so far for the season.Sagarin has us as a seven point favorite after deducting the home-field advantage.Just for curiosity, we are rated number 28 in the country, and Purdue is rated number 63.This is easy money. Take the Cats and the points

PS both times when I said Sagarin to Siri, she put in Saccharine. Looked kind of sweet
 
N

NUCats

Redshirt
Sep 2, 2004
69
4
0
I've read a couple of posts about NU's offense being better. I'm not convinced:

1. The O-Line should be better, but has been inconsistent (especially to start the year for at least the last 2 years).

2. Thorson's health is an unknown, although BTN's takeaways were encouraging.

3. We will miss JJTBC's ability to avoid negative plays, his durability and his amazingly low turnovers. I'm high on Larkin, and think he has a bit more quickness, but he has big shoes to fill, and needs to prove himself in the other aspects.

I still think the offense can be very good, but not sure about better. I am optimistic that the defense will be stout and keep NU in games.

Can't wait for Thursday. Go Cats!
 
H

hdhntr1

All-Conference
Sep 5, 2006
37,658
1,271
113
GOUNUII said:
Purdue is young and inexperienced in the front seven with little depth on the DL. Just 2 of the 7 starters are established quality players. Cats will have to deal with stunts. Boilers will not play straight up. And they will be vulnerable as fatigue sets in late in the 3rd quarter.

Look for the Cats to pound the rock, complimented with passes designed to attack the OLBs. Then go deep when the safeties cheat up.

The Purdue fans remember that the Boilers scored a lot of points last year. They forget that Wisconsin — Michigan and NU held them to 9,10 and 13 points. They will have to hit several big plays downfield to win. Can’t imagine them running the ball with much success.

If the Cats take control early we should win. Let the Boilers get the upper hand out of the gate and it could be another disappointing early season loss. On paper and a neutral field, we are a 17-20 point better team.

GOUNUII
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All true but NU had several times they were beaten on long passes last year and this is something that is a bigger part of the PU offense. Fortunately most were not completed. Hopefully this year we do not have as many breakdowns and maintain our luck of those passes not being completed
 
H

hdhntr1

All-Conference
Sep 5, 2006
37,658
1,271
113
EvanstonCat said:
BTN team was high on NU and not so high on Purdue. Our O should be better given what we are returning and our D should be nearly as solid if not more so. The question boils down to one safety position. If Pace can step up and play, Purdue will not move the ball on us.

If I'm not mistaken, Purdue's lines on both sides of the ball are green. Our OL should have no problems with them and our O should roll right over them. Our DL will abuse their OL all day and never give their QB time to throw.

I can't really see how Purdue could even keep this one close. Don't really understand the Vegas line at all.
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The D might come down to the safety position but the other unknown is, will CT play (my guess is yes) and if he does, how close to 100% will he be? If he does and is close to 100%, the O has plenty of weapons and with the youth and inexperience of the PU D, particularly their front 7 (favors the running game keeping pressure off the QB. If he doesn't or is not close to 100%, the O may be more challenged and it will fall to the NU D to put us in a position to win.
 
DaCat

DaCat

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
25,577
1,984
113


Sure looking like Thor the Hammer is going full speed in practice.
 
R

ricko6543211

Junior
Nov 15, 2006
4,231
229
47
corbi296 said:
I’ve been following predictions on their board as well. What I find humorous are not the predictions that they will win, those are to be expected, It’s the predictions that they will put up 30-40 points on NU. Do they have any clue that the strength of our team is our defense and that many predict we have the best front seven in the Western Conference? They know their defense is weak so their predictions are driven by a realization that the only way they can win is in a shootout. Won’t happen. My prediction is that they get a heavy dose of Larkin and Moten and NU wins 27-14 in a game dominated by our defense and ball control offense.
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This sounds like an accurate description to me. I think we go pretty run-heavy as well. I suspect our secondary will give up some yards but contain the points. And then ideally we get a lead, Fitz will of course go into conservative mode, and then trust the defense. I might say 27-20.

Vegas OU is at 51, for what it's worth. So that's discounting a 27-24 game. I agree with you Corbi it seems quite unlikely that Purdue puts up 30 on us. The only teams who got more than 24 against us last year were Wisconsin (33 I believe with a pick six), Penn St (31), and MSU (31, but after 3 OTs, just 17 in regulation). And our D will I think be better this year, if we can stay healthy. The young athleticism on Purdue's team notwithstanding, I don't see a Jonathan Taylor or Saquon / McSorley / Hamilton / Gesicki type of talent showing up and getting them 30 pts.
 
P

Purdidit

Redshirt
Feb 9, 2004
4
0
0
CatFanEd said:
I think Vegas factors in our QB situation as well as a road game.
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I believe Sagarin uses 3 seasons worth of data in the preseason numbers which would mean Purdue's numbers are weighed down by its ineptitude in 2015 and 2016. Vegas seems to like Brohm a lot and I think that more than anything else explains the gap b/w Sagarin and Vegas.

ricko654321 said:
This sounds like an accurate description to me. I think we go pretty run-heavy as well. I suspect our secondary will give up some yards but contain the points. And then ideally we get a lead, Fitz will of course go into conservative mode, and then trust the defense. I might say 27-20.

Vegas OU is at 51, for what it's worth. So that's discounting a 27-24 game. I agree with you Corbi it seems quite unlikely that Purdue puts up 30 on us. The only teams who got more than 24 against us last year were Wisconsin (33 I believe with a pick six), Penn St (31), and MSU (31, but after 3 OTs, just 17 in regulation). And our D will I think be better this year, if we can stay healthy. The young athleticism on Purdue's team notwithstanding, I don't see a Jonathan Taylor or Saquon / McSorley / Hamilton / Gesicki type of talent showing up and getting them 30 pts.
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Purdue's offense was basically a thermometer for the opponents defense last season.

Michigan and Wisconsin's dominant defenses dominated Purdue.
Northwestern's dominant RZ defense, dominated Purdue in the RZ.
Missouri and Arizona couldn't stop anyone last season, Purdue included.

We Purdue fans hope that this season's offense will do better than being a thermometer but it is just hope right now.

If Purdue's offense is just a thermometer again then NU will win this game. Easily most likely.
 
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B

bonefish1

Freshman
Oct 4, 2004
72
56
18
GOUNUII said:
Purdue is young and inexperienced in the front seven with little depth on the DL. Just 2 of the 7 starters are established quality players. Cats will have to deal with stunts. Boilers will not play straight up. And they will be vulnerable as fatigue sets in late in the 3rd quarter.

Look for the Cats to pound the rock, complimented with passes designed to attack the OLBs. Then go deep when the safeties cheat up.

The Purdue fans remember that the Boilers scored a lot of points last year. They forget that Wisconsin — Michigan and NU held them to 9,10 and 13 points. They will have to hit several big plays downfield to win. Can’t imagine them running the ball with much success.

If the Cats take control early we should win. Let the Boilers get the upper hand out of the gate and it could be another disappointing early season loss. On paper and a neutral field, we are a 17-20 point better team.

GOUNUII
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So, are you willing to give me Purdue +18? How much will you accept in a wager?
 
C

crunchtime

All-Conference
Nov 9, 2017
7,115
4,513
113
eastbaycat99 said:
Purdue had a winning season, and wow, they have a genuine troll!
I think Lou should have an annual end of year poll for most hilarious troll and name it the Droski Award.
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Troll ??!! Visit your Board, get some informed advice about the NU/PU breakdown, put $ 1,000 on the Cats...….and I'm a TROLL ?? Huh ?
 
E

eastbaycat99

Sophomore
Mar 7, 2009
2,523
182
48
doubleyous said:
Troll ??!! Visit your Board, get some informed advice about the NU/PU breakdown, put $ 1,000 on the Cats...….and I'm a TROLL ?? Huh ?
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Yes. Registered here before last year’s BBall matchup, posted one then and 4 times in this thread, one quote without comment, others all snark. Hard to think of another term for it.

I commented basically as a compliment to Brohm. He brought the Boilers up to respectability last year, and hence your willingness to visit here and post.

Whether you are inducted into the Droski hall of fame (and if you don’t know what that means, ok) depends on how frequent, how snarky and how hyperbolic your posts are up to Thursday and afterwards, win or lose.

You lose Droski points if you post and cite something factual and relevant or respond directly to a Northwestern troll on the Purdue board.
 
C

crunchtime

All-Conference
Nov 9, 2017
7,115
4,513
113
eastbaycat99 said:
Yes. Registered here before last year’s BBall matchup, posted one then and 4 times in this thread, one quote without comment, others all snark. Hard to think of another term for it.

I commented basically as a compliment to Brohm. He brought the Boilers up to respectability last year, and hence your willingness to visit here and post.

Whether you are inducted into the Droski hall of fame (and if you don’t know what that means, ok) depends on how frequent, how snarky and how hyperbolic your posts are up to Thursday and afterwards, win or lose.

You lose Droski points if you post and cite something factual and relevant or respond directly to a Northwestern troll on the Purdue board.
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Was looking for N.U. fan input to possibly WAGER on the Thurs. matchup. Snarkily mentioned that it surely was appreciated by P.U. fans that N.U. wouldn't be "running up the score" in a game in which the home team was favored. Assured that N.U. was 17-20 pts. better on a neut. field. With that, wagered on the Wildcats ( no, not a grand ). This Droski guy has a low threshold for troll declaration.
 
F

Fitz51

Senior
Oct 21, 2008
10,115
649
0
doubleyous said:
Was looking for N.U. fan input to possibly WAGER on the Thurs. matchup.
Click to expand...

This game screams "stay away." Basically a pick 'em on a neutral site. Public bets are just about evenly split. Line has moved a little toward NU, but not enough to indicate any kind of sharp take on the game.
 
C

corbi2961

Senior
Sep 9, 2005
30,524
786
0
Fitz51 said:
This game screams "stay away." Basically a pick 'em on a neutral site. Public bets are just about evenly split. Line has moved a little toward NU, but not enough to indicate any kind of sharp take on the game.
Click to expand...

This game screams take NU and the points. Early season college football games offer up some of the most attractive betting opportunities. Of course, I don’t gamble!
 
E

eastbaycat99

Sophomore
Mar 7, 2009
2,523
182
48
doubleyous said:
Was looking for N.U. fan input to possibly WAGER on the Thurs. matchup. Snarkily mentioned that it surely was appreciated by P.U. fans that N.U. wouldn't be "running up the score" in a game in which the home team was favored. Assured that N.U. was 17-20 pts. better on a neut. field. With that, wagered on the Wildcats ( no, not a grand ). This Droski guy has a low threshold for troll declaration.
Click to expand...

Unless you can identify what a Droski is, you should be careful in invoking the name.
 
G

GOUNUII

Junior
Jan 4, 2004
6,418
238
63
bonefish1 said:
So, are you willing to give me Purdue +18? How much will you accept in a wager?
Click to expand...

Work on your reading comprehension. Then reread the post. Multiple times if necessary. The answer to your question is right there in front of you.
 
C

Chuckster1973

Redshirt
May 3, 2018
477
0
0
Definitely should take Northwestern and the points. Purdue might get better as the year goes on but it's beneficial we are playing them in the first game as they have a new set of defensive players to break in.
 
D

DkeCat

Junior
Jan 14, 2002
3,948
260
68
gocatsgo2003 said:
He's playing.
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Well - I don’t have any reason to doubt you, assuming you have direct knowledge, but if not, will also say they are running a textbook smokescreen as well (teddy story, the social media, the talking points). Regardless, very well done by them.
 
G

Gocatsgo2003

All-Conference
Mar 30, 2006
46,830
3,166
78
DkeCat said:
Well - I don’t have any reason to doubt you, assuming you have direct knowledge, but if not, will also say they are running a textbook smokescreen as well (teddy story, the social media, the talking points). Regardless, very well done by them.
Click to expand...

He’s playing.
 
BosCat

BosCat

Sophomore
Nov 29, 2008
1,276
189
63
Are we really sure CT is playing? As usual, Fitz clears things up...…..

 
F

Fitz51

Senior
Oct 21, 2008
10,115
649
0
I like that response by Fitz, because there's really no need to tell anyone anything.
 
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