Our road is clear
1. Win out (clearly)
2. Baylor rebounds with wins over KSU/TT and gives us a chance to closeout the year with another top 25 win
3. OK State loses to give us the Big XII title
4. Louisville loses to Houston or Kentucky or ACCCG
5. Michigan beats Ohio State to ensure PSU cannot play their way in and hopefully knock OSU out, although the media will likely clamor for both to get in.
6. Washington loses to Washington State or in the Pac 12 Championship (some may disagree but I have a hard time believing we leapfrog a 12-1 Washington team)
If that plays out I think we get a CFP of
1. Bama
2. Michigan
3. Clemson
4. WVU
We also have to worry about the winner of a potential Wisconsin/PSU game getting a media boost to jump us with 2 losses if the above scenario played out, so Wisconsin/PSU upsets would only help our cause. Additionally Florida is a wildcard to get sEcSPN behind them if they take out Bama in the SECCG, so root for them to take another L just to bury their chances.
I think you have summed up the scenarios well, nice job. One thing that you might have overlooked is the result of the PAC 12 CG. Whether Wash St or Washington gets to the CG they will have to face Colorado, if all things stay the same. The Buffs play Wash St this weekend and a victory there would make the WashU./WashSt game the division play-off.
Colorado has been a media darling all year long and that will get some play with the CFP committee. Colorado's losses are to Michigan and USC, both early in the year and we all know about early losses somehow counting less especially if they are GOOD losses as in this case.
I am concerned that a 2-loss Colorado PAC 12 Champ, with GOOD losses early would get the #4 spot from the CFP committee. A Bama/Colorado match-up might look better than a Bama/WVU match-up to the committee (ESPN).