Projected Final SEC Basketball Standings

[wtw2400]

KenPom
1. Auburn (13-5)
2. Florida (12-6)
3. Kentucky (11-7)
3. Tennessee (11-7)
5. Alabama (10-8)
5. Missouri (10-8)
7. Arkansas (9-9)
8. Georgia (8-10)
8. LSU (8-10)
8. Texas A&M (8-10)
11. Ole Miss (7-11)
11. Mississippi State (7-11)
11. South Carolina (7-11)
14. Vanderbilt (5-13)


ESPN BPI
1. Auburn (13-5, 25-6)
2. Florida (12-6, 21-10)
2. Tennessee (12-6, 22-8)
4. Kentucky (11-7, 21-10)
5. Missouri (10-8, 20-11)
6. Alabama (9-9, 18-13)
6. Arkansas (9-9, 20-11)
8. Georgia (8-10, 17-13)
8. LSU (8-10, 17-13)
8. Texas A&M (8-10, 19-12)
11. Ole Miss (7-11, 14-17)
11. Mississippi State (7-11, 19-12)
11. South Carolina (7-11, 16-15)
14. Vanderbilt (5-13, 11-20)

Interstingly enough Warren Nolan is much higher having State at 9-9 but that is a projected RPI of 143

Point is this is SEC Tournament Winners or Bust as far as postseason goes. I am really concerned considering the fact when you look at the 4 coaches hired in 2015 in SEC Basketball, that 3 out of 4 will have made the NCAA TOurnament, and one will have not even made the NIT. And Alabama and Tennessee were similar situations to MSU. Quite frankly I think we will be lucky to win 7 conference games. This league is much better than us.

The worst part is how much we have deemphazied the Alabama rivalry. Losing 8 or the last 9 since Stansbury left sucks. And if you look at it during Howland, with similar recruiting you would expect the teams to be similar. THey were in 2016, but in 2017, Alabama got progressively better and State digressed. THey met in the first conference game in Starkville. Alabama won comfortably. Later in Tuscaloosa, Alabama didn't let it get as close during the game like they did in Starkvile. ANd in States last game in 2017, Alabama routed MSU.

States next 2 road games are against top 30 RPI teams and a split is much needed for the NIT. And Alabama is the one to steal. I do not see it happening. But if this program wants to take the next step, beating Alabama this season is certainly it.

 

[engie]

Projected rpi is as useful as tits on a boar

 

[patdog]

Looks about right. Don't see Vandy getting to 5 wins though.

 

[wtw2400]

They play at Memorial Gym so they will squeeze a few wins. Their lone win is against Alabama right now in Nashville. And I expect one of their wins will be us when we go up there.

 

[57stratdawg]

An opening round SECT bye is a really good goal for this team, IMO.

 

[wtw2400]

I agree. We are the only SEC Team since Expansion to not finish in the top 10.

Yeah that is really sad.....

 

[Wizard.sixpack]

A&M is going to finish top 3. Book it. They are ALOT better team than they have been playing like. They will get it together and make a run.

 

[patdog]

A&M has dug themselves a huge hole to come out of to finish in the top 3. They'd probably have to go 10-2 the rest of the way to finish that high.

 

[MSUDC11]

Anything less than 9-9 is a bad year, in my opinion.

 

[wtw2400]

No one is saying this is going to be a good year unfortunately

 

[DAWG61]

Alabama was ahead of MSU when Avery Johnson took over. Tennessee was in a similar position though having to sign like 7 guys right away. Avery has done a better job recruiting and getting transfers than Howland. Bama is a good team but Sexton should be out this Saturday with an abdominal strain so we do have a chance to steal one.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

That's what Auburn thought last night too.

 

[MSU601Dawg]

I think it's very possible MSU does better than that projection, as the SEC schedule is pretty good for us since we get to play some of the worst teams twice (Vandy/South Car/Ole Miss) and play the top 4 teams only once.

And since there's so little separation between teams 5 & 13 in terms of conference record AND how good the teams are, a 2-3 game swing could be the difference in us finishing 11th or 5/6th.

I just think MSU can easily beat an Arkansas, Bama, Missouri, UGA, A&M, or LSU on any given night. Most all of these games are going to be super competitive, so if we happen to fall on the good end of a ton of close games for a change you might could see MSU finish 6th and that may even be good enough for an NCAA tourney berth (best case scenario I know).

Who are you guys conceding losses to other than maybe @UK? I say MSU wins 5 out of the last 6 at home and takes possibly 2-4 on the road.

I just think the team is better than people are giving it credit for, Auburn and Florida are easily 2 of the top 3 teams in the conference to me so people are getting down on the team for losing to them

 

[DAWG61]

That's what Auburn thought last night too.

Bama is long/big and Auburn is undersized. Not a good matchup for Pearl's squad.

 

[Seinfeld]

A bad year and frankly unacceptable. I’m not going to sit here and bash Howland because in spite of the record, this is clearly a better team than what we’ve had the last 5 years. However, I’ll say again that if we truly only get to 7-8 conference wins, Howland is coaching for his job next year

 

[Go Budaw]

A&M has dug themselves a huge hole to come out of to finish in the top 3. They'd probably have to go 10-2 the rest of the way to finish that high.

Even that puts them at 10-8 which would be right in the middle of the pack. Anything short of winning out will not get them in the Top 3.

 

[DAWG61]

However, I’ll say again that if we truly only get to 7-8 conference wins, Howland is coaching for his job next year

Nope not with the signing class we got coming in he's not. We'd have to totally **** the bed this year for him to be coaching for his job next year. Like 4-14 in SEC type shitting the bed. Howland is fine and he's doing a good job despite some of y'alls impatience.

 

[patdog]

They're 1-5 now. 10-2 would put them at 11-7. Which still might not be enough to crack the top 3.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Auburn was the favorite last night.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

I just think the team is better than people are giving it credit for, Auburn and Florida are easily 2 of the top 3 teams in the conference to me so people are getting down on the team for losing to them

I was thinking about this last night. We've lost to two teams who appear headed towards decent NCAA seeds, and arguably should/could have won one of them. The unfortunate flip side which leaves questions unanswered for us is that our two SEC wins are over a terrible Vandy team and an Arkansas team who struggles mightily on the road. In other words, the two wins don't tell us a lot more than those two losses. I'm ignoring the other loss in hopes that it was just a rivalry game anomaly and not a sign that we are in the bottom tier of the league.

 

[DAWG61]

Auburn was the favorite last night.

I am not cocky about us beating Bama. The game is at their place, they are a good team and they are long at every position. Plus we have lost a lot of games to Bama for a long time now. I do think we have a better shot with Sexton out than with him in though. I don't think they can sustain that high level of play with their best player out for very long. They played well vs Auburn and Petty was on fire.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Nope not with the signing class we got coming in he's not. We'd have to totally **** the bed this year for him to be coaching for his job next year. Like 4-14 in SEC type shitting the bed. Howland is fine and he's doing a good job despite some of y'alls impatience.

Save your breath. We have a crowd that doesn't see the big picture and is not taking anything into account other than wins and losses.

Or they just forget.

 

[Seinfeld]

If you believe that, more power to you. I completely disagree, though.

Ray spent 3 years burning things to the ground, so he took that responsibility off of Howland’s plate before he ever hit campus. By the end of next season, he will have had 4 years to rebuild, and it will be utterly unacceptable to not have a borderline NCAA tourney team at a minimum

 

[VegasDawg13]

if we happen to fall on the good end of a ton of close games for a change.

I looked this up the other day, and I believe we are 5-1 in games decided by 6 or less. If regression in close games is coming, it will be bad for us, not good.

 

[olblue.sixpack]

Bama is long/big and Auburn is undersized. Not a good matchup for Pearl's squad.

Not a good matchup for MSU either.

 

[DAWG61]

If you believe that, more power to you. I completely disagree, though.

Ray spent 3 years burning things to the ground, so he took that responsibility off of Howland’s plate before he ever hit campus. By the end of next season, he will have had 4 years to rebuild, and it will be utterly unacceptable to not have a borderline NCAA tourney team at a minimum

Well according to Lunardi we are a borderline NCAA team right now and that dude is right like 99% of the time.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Nope not with the signing class we got coming in he's not. We'd have to totally **** the bed this year for him to be coaching for his job next year. Like 4-14 in SEC type shitting the bed. Howland is fine and he's doing a good job despite some of y'alls impatience.

Not trying to be antagonistic, but to us less knowledgeable about the basketball recruiting world, next year feels like the **** or get off the pot year. 3 top 20 classes in 4 years next season, correct? If Howland does not have them in the tournament it seems to reason we are either recruiting a **** ton of busts or can't coach the talent. Either way you can't blame Rick Ray... It would be different if next season was the first top 25 class. Please explain.

 

[DAWG61]

Not trying to be antagonistic, but to us less knowledgeable about the basketball recruiting world, next year feels like the **** or get off the pot year. 3 top 20 classes in 4 years next season, correct? If Howland does not have them in the tournament it seems to reason we are either recruiting a **** ton of busts or can't coach the talent. Either way you can't blame Rick Ray... It would be different if next season was the first top 25 class. Please explain.

We were 16-16 last season and 14-4 so far this season. We are making progress not spinning our wheels. Some of y'all (not saying you) are wanting your cookies before suffering through the vegetables. You don't go from Rick Ray dumpster fires to NCAA 7 seeds overnight.

 

[ShrubDog]

If the pattern holds we will be on the CBI bubble

 

[MSU601Dawg]

I looked this up the other day, and I believe we are 5-1 in games decided by 6 or less. If regression in close games is coming, it will be bad for us, not good.

I meant moreso compared to our record in close games the last 5 years. I don't know the stats, but it seems like we were on the wrong end of close games the bulk of the last 5 years.

I just don't see a big gap in the league from the 5th/6th spot to the 13 spot, so if we keep on with this year's theme of winning close games we could just as easily wind up in the NCAA's as we could miss the CBI.

I could be wrong, but I don't think teams like Missouri, A&M, USCe, LSU, Bama, UGA, or Arkansas are any better than MSU, even though most if not all of them are significantly higher in the RPI

 

[Lettucexxxx]

It's going to take more than a win @ Home vs Vandy for me to forget about the poo sandwiches our players and coaches have fed us to this point. I'll hold my tongue on Howland until seasons end but I still have **** in my teeth.

Anyone disappointed in the record, shouldn't be....but if you have truly watched every game, like most in this thread, you can't exactly be jumping for joy, yet.

So, I'll look at the big picture. Ah, there it is. Yep, one corner of the portrait looks like Pablo Picasso. The other 3 corners look like they were sketched by Pablo Escobar. My picture has only two bright spots, a couple shades of blue and a large burn hole. I ordered a patch for the burn hole, hopefully it will arrive before seasons end.

 

[Shamoan]

howland will get year 5, but IF we didnt make the NCAA tourney in the 18-19 season, people will still make excuses. we have a long way to go, but im willing to let howland try to recruit out of this mess simply because im scared for our programs future if he cant get it done. im willing to give him a longer leash and hope he gets some help.

 

[TrueMaroonGrind]

A bad year and frankly unacceptable. I’m not going to sit here and bash Howland because in spite of the record, this is clearly a better team than what we’ve had the last 5 years. However, I’ll say again that if we truly only get to 7-8 conference wins, Howland is coaching for his job next year

If we get 20 wins this year and get similar or slightly better results next year then fire Howland, be ready for another Rick Ray. Howland has recruited well enough so far to get some time. I understand your logic in a normal situation, but Howland inherited a unique situation.

IMO as long as we are on the upward trend Howland stays. Maybe that changes in a few years but for now this is how I see it.

 

[Paperdog]

Tennessee made the Sweet 16 in 2014

Not sure how that is similar to the MSU situation

KenPom
1. Auburn (13-5)
2. Florida (12-6)
3. Kentucky (11-7)
3. Tennessee (11-7)
5. Alabama (10-8)
5. Missouri (10-8)
7. Arkansas (9-9)
8. Georgia (8-10)
8. LSU (8-10)
8. Texas A&M (8-10)
11. Ole Miss (7-11)
11. Mississippi State (7-11)
11. South Carolina (7-11)
14. Vanderbilt (5-13)


ESPN BPI
1. Auburn (13-5, 25-6)
2. Florida (12-6, 21-10)
2. Tennessee (12-6, 22-8)
4. Kentucky (11-7, 21-10)
5. Missouri (10-8, 20-11)
6. Alabama (9-9, 18-13)
6. Arkansas (9-9, 20-11)
8. Georgia (8-10, 17-13)
8. LSU (8-10, 17-13)
8. Texas A&M (8-10, 19-12)
11. Ole Miss (7-11, 14-17)
11. Mississippi State (7-11, 19-12)
11. South Carolina (7-11, 16-15)
14. Vanderbilt (5-13, 11-20)

Interstingly enough Warren Nolan is much higher having State at 9-9 but that is a projected RPI of 143

Point is this is SEC Tournament Winners or Bust as far as postseason goes. I am really concerned considering the fact when you look at the 4 coaches hired in 2015 in SEC Basketball, that 3 out of 4 will have made the NCAA TOurnament, and one will have not even made the NIT. And Alabama and Tennessee were similar situations to MSU. Quite frankly I think we will be lucky to win 7 conference games. This league is much better than us.

The worst part is how much we have deemphazied the Alabama rivalry. Losing 8 or the last 9 since Stansbury left sucks. And if you look at it during Howland, with similar recruiting you would expect the teams to be similar. THey were in 2016, but in 2017, Alabama got progressively better and State digressed. THey met in the first conference game in Starkville. Alabama won comfortably. Later in Tuscaloosa, Alabama didn't let it get as close during the game like they did in Starkvile. ANd in States last game in 2017, Alabama routed MSU.

States next 2 road games are against top 30 RPI teams and a split is much needed for the NIT. And Alabama is the one to steal. I do not see it happening. But if this program wants to take the next step, beating Alabama this season is certainly it.

 

[DAWG61]

Oh man watch out everyone there's a couple serial down voters on the loose

 

[Lettucexxxx]

Oh man watch out everyone there's a couple serial down voters on the loose

They have been following me too. You want my PI's phone number? We've started a list**

 

[Seinfeld]

Let’s revisit this at the end of the season. With our abysmal non-conference schedule, if we truly do go 7-11 in conference, there is zero chance that we are a borderline NCAA team

If, on the other hand, we go 11-7 and find our way into the dance, I will gladly stop saying that his job will be on the line next year

 

[Go Budaw]

They're 1-5 now. 10-2 would put them at 11-7. Which still might not be enough to crack the top 3.

Apparently my reading comprehension sucks.

I read the A&M-OM game thread assuming OM beat A&M and was too lazy to check the score. All the “Kennedy’s a good coach” and “0-6” talk had me fooled.

 

[Philly Dawg]

The NIT wouldn’t be such an awful place for this team - if they improve over the course of the season they could advance in it.

 

[wtw2400]

Not sure how that is similar to the MSU situation

They hired Donnie Tyndall who screwed their program up. If anything Tennessee was in a worse situation when Barnes took over than Howland was.