The conference is very down this upcoming year.
There is zero evidence this is true. Every conference loses NBA caliber players to the next level and the transfer portal is a factor for every league.
The Top 250 HS recruit count based on total number of commitments, gives zero indication of a drop-off for the B1G.
Total number of Top 250 commits based by conference.
SEC 38
B1G 38
ACC 37
Big 12 22
Big East 18
Pac 12 16
Other leagues/Pro/uncommitted kids make up the remaining 250.
There has been zero indication based on numbers of Top 200-250 kids incoming as frosh, that the B1G will have any drop-off whatsoever. If I dive into the amount of starters landed by B1G schools via the portal, it isn't like the B1G hasn't landed any and lost everyone.
There have been some exits to the next level or draft that are bigger name kids, but no one had Keegan Murray and Jordan Davis last summer as NBA lottery picks. The discussion was Jaden Ivey/Purdue and Michigan landing 4 McDonald's AAs in their 2020-21 class. 2 of those kids played this past season and entered the draft, one transfered out and the other stayed for Michigan. But considering what schools like Michigan pickup out of HS and via the portal, I don't see where this narrative on the B1G being down is coming from.
The overall assessment (to me) is the Big East improved the most from the portal and has Creighton ready to make the next jump to a Top 10 program.....and the middle schools appear to have maintained a good level via the portal. But when the best team (Villanova) loses its Hall of Fame coach and rugged seniors like Colin Gillespie, I don't see how the Big East improves in terms of perception.
The ACC (Duke, Florida State, UNC & Virginia) should be very solid. Miami and Notre Dame should be OK.
The Big 12 is typically 1st or 2nd, based on overall coaches and or defense/rebounding.
With the B1G and SEC at 38 each of the Top 250 kids, I don't see where either league drops off. It is a really bizarre scenario where someone in the media says something, and there is no evidence supporting it.
I think the overwhelming majority of where a league is, gets boiled down to how it did in the NCAA tournament.....and because the B1G (Purdue) and SEC (Kentucky and Tennessee got clipped, the league is somehow going other be down. If anything, the SEC, B1G, Big 12 are probably 1 to 3, depending on how the season lands. I would then say the ACC, Big East and then Pac 12 in that order. It would surprise me that the Pac 12 would have more Elite 8 teams than the B1G or Big East (Arizona and UCLA are going to be good again), but the Pac 12 probably needs to play better from teams 4 through 9 or 10, to get into the discussion as a Top 5 league.