Pomeroy numbers......not good

[AllBall]

Team spacing and timing has improved tremendously since the beginning of December. Also, it seems guys are setting and coming off screens better. Still need to improve movement w/o the ball and value each possession.

 

[Burly]

I prefer Sagarin because I believe they come closest to actually Vegas spreads on games
We cut turnovers especially unforced ones

 

[UK90]

I'm not sure why people here are so concerned about the Pomeroy and Sagarin rankings, since they mean nothing.

The NET are the only computer rankings that matter, so they're the only ones I follow.

 

[Mojocat_rivals48469]

The problem is 77th in offensive rebounding % when we are usually top 10 in the Cal era.

If you don't shoot the ball well and u turn it over at an average rate, you better be rebounding the misses.

And we aren't.

Yep. Maybe one reason he was hesitant to go with a 3 guard lineup - rebounding. Calipari teams have a certain profile (like any established coach). On offense, we rebound the heck out of the ball, limit turnovers, get to the line - which explains why we typically have a top 20 or better offense despite the grumbling about how simplistic our offense is. On defense, it’s rebounding and shot blocking, interior defense really.

This team has an unusual profile for a Calipari team. I continue to think we have a pretty high ceiling. But you dig into the numbers a little, and it becomes clear we have work to do.....

 

[GoNoles111]

Who cares. Just win.

 

[Kingslayer07]

I'm not sure why people here are so concerned about the Pomeroy and Sagarin rankings, since they mean nothing.

The NET are the only computer rankings that matter, so they're the only ones I follow.

And we barely moved up in the NET...BS

 

[fatguy87]

Our rating is what it is in Kenpom because we've played poorly against weak opponents. We are 5-1 in the SEC so far, but our rating keeps dropping because we aren't beating the crap out of teams the caliber of Missouri, USC, or Georgia. That's 4 chances to score a blowout victory and we failed to accomplish that a single time. Heck, we even lost one of those games.

 

[KA4Prez_rivals78700]

According to those metrics, only a few teams can win the title.

Duke - 5/5
Kansas - 8/3
Michigan State - 10/19
Louisville - 17/16
Baylor - 18/4

UK has beaten two of those teams already.

 

[wildcatsboston1984_rivals]

Just checked our numbers at kenpom.com. To say they aren't great is an understatement. Overall ranking is 26. Offensive efficiency is 32. Defensive efficiency is 43. We are free falling.

The juxtaposition of that profile vs the gutty road win we got last night.....it's hard to reconcile.

Historically of course, you can throw out a lot of polling data, a lot of advanced metrics, it comes down to this: is your team in the top 20 on offense per Pomeroy, and is your team in the top 20 on defense per Pomeroy? That's the formula. Since 2002, every national champion has hit those 2 marks, with one exception - 2014 UConn.

And right now, we ain't close to either.

I suppose 2 things can be said. One, this is a crazy year. Maybe someone like UConn in '14 wins, maybe this is one of those nutty years when conventional norms are out the window. Two, we can improve, and with 3 freshmen playing good minutes, maybe we can improve a lot. The Duke 2015 team was 57 in defense at the start of the ACC tournament, and it ended the season 3 weeks later at 11. This team isn't like that one, not like a typical Cal team either - we don't rely that heavily on freshmen, so I doubt we can rocket up the rankings once the light bulb goes on. But we can get better.

Likely have to......

To be fair, they are only one point per 100 possessions behind 20th on offense, which isn’t that much given the leader is 8.1 better than UK.

 

[JC CATS]

After the tip Pomeroy has 0 to do with it

 

[The_Answer1313_rivals]

Yep. Maybe one reason he was hesitant to go with a 3 guard lineup - rebounding. Calipari teams have a certain profile (like any established coach). On offense, we rebound the heck out of the ball, limit turnovers, get to the line - which explains why we typically have a top 20 or better offense despite the grumbling about how simplistic our offense is. On defense, it’s rebounding and shot blocking, interior defense really.

This team has an unusual profile for a Calipari team. I continue to think we have a pretty high ceiling. But you dig into the numbers a little, and it becomes clear we have work to do.....

It's amazing when you look at some of the team pages on Kenpom just how different coaches tend to stick with similar styles.
Despite the changing of players throughout the years, the coaches tend to stick to the same things.

Another thing to be learned about it.......there's more than one way to be efficient on offense or defense.

Eff FG%
Turnover %
Rebounding %
FTR

Do a couple of those things really well (any of them really) and just be average in the others.....and u can be efficient.

 

[CELTICAT]

Wait, are people still freaking out that this team doesn't have a national championship profile?

 

[The_Answer1313_rivals]

I'm not sure why people here are so concerned about the Pomeroy and Sagarin rankings, since they mean nothing.

The NET are the only computer rankings that matter, so they're the only ones I follow.

Depends on what you are looking for.

In terms of seeding...........yeah NET is the big one obviously.

But NET doesn't break down the underlying stats. It doesn't tell you exactly what a team does well or not.

It's amazing when you look at the four factors of UK and then say their upcoming opponent just how much of it plays into the actual game.

Plus I'm not entirely convinced that NET is a good predictor of overall talent or not. It does a decent job but I think Sagarin and Kenpom have it beat.

So while I'll use NET when I'm predicting where teams will be seeded, I'll use other measures to actually predict who is going to win or not.