POLL: Trump V Clinton - Now Practically Inevitable

[toolucky52384]

See poll. Used a 3x3 Result Matrix to gain perception of folks thoughts without needing 2 separate polls.
Who do you think you will vote for and who do you believe will win. FWIW, I don't think it is possible for a 3rd party to win, but I included it as a result so as to not marginalize anyone whose view of electoral probability differs greatly from my own.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

See poll. Used a 3x3 Result Matrix to gain perception of folks thoughts without needing 2 separate polls.
Who will you think you will vote for and who do you believe will win. FWIW, I don't think it is possible for a 3rd party to win, but I included it as a result so as to not marginalize anyone whose view of electoral probability differs greatly from my own.

No it isn't. Cruz really needs to win Indiana, though.

 

[toolucky52384]

No it isn't. Cruz really needs to win Indiana, though.

in my opinion, barring Donald Trump growing a Hitler Mustache and adopting the Swastika in his campaign logo this weekend, Indiana is already lost. Momentum is moving against Cruz as Trump pivots. (JMO... it's already over)

 

[The Mixed Mamba]

330 Million Americans, and we couldn't find 2 better candidates. Damn shame...

 

[toolucky52384]

330 Million Americans, and we couldn't 2 better candidates. Damn shame...

really incredible how unfavorable the nominees are to the general public. Wishing Joe Biden or Michael Bloomberg had run, neither are my ideal, but at least I respect them both for being honest and having a vision of what they want to accomplish. Really ideologically am close to Romney, but he was a turrible candidate.

 

[bflow22]

330 Million Americans, and we couldn't 2 better candidates. Damn shame...

Agreed. For the first time in my existence I am going to have a hard time voting for either.... It's pathetic that these two are the inevitable candidates.

I personally think that either one of those two would have been better than Bernie though.... That dude scared the crap out of me. And I was even more scared about the amount of support a self renowned socialist received. Democrat or Republican, that is not good folks. When a socialist has a real shot at a nomination it isn't good for anyone.

Really wish a logical candidate was running for both parties. This election is embarrassing.

 

[tigerGUY]

really incredible how unfavorable the nominees are to the general public. Wishing Joe Biden or Michael Bloomberg had run, neither are my ideal, but at least I respect them both for being honest and having a vision of what they want to accomplish. Really ideologically am close to Romney, but he was a turrible candidate.

Biden honest? SMH

 

[toolucky52384]

Biden honest? SMH

he's way left of me, but i think he is a good and honest man. at this point I'd take a good, honest public servant who loves his country, and i'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

in my opinion, barring Donald Trump growing a Hitler Mustache and adopting the Swastika in his campaign logo this weekend, Indiana is already lost. Momentum is moving against Cruz as Trump pivots. (JMO... it's already over)

I guess I don't see why that's a foregone conclusion. The polls are fairly close, and Kasich isn't even campaigning in Indiana anymore.

We should do another poll: is it crazier to think that Trump won't have this thing sewn up before the convention, or to think that Trump will win in the general election (it's a little bit surprising to me that there are at least 15 people on here who think Trump will win)?

 

[toolucky52384]

I guess I don't see why that's a foregone conclusion. The polls are fairly close, and Kasich isn't even campaigning in Indiana anymore.

i guess i see Cruz as having a 30% chance of winning Indiana, a 20% chance of making it to a second ballot even if he wins Indiana, and then maybe a 66% chance of the second ballot not choosing trump. So I've figured about a 4% chance of it not being trump. Republican's are at the acceptance stage of grief.

 

[Deac Tiger]

Let's get it on......

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

i guess i see Cruz as having a 30% chance of winning Indiana, a 20% chance of making it to a second ballot even if he wins Indiana, and then maybe a 66% chance of the second ballot not choosing trump. So I've figured about a 4% chance of it not being trump. Republican's are at the acceptance stage of grief.

Well, I don't know where those numbers come from. Current polling would suggest he's only a few points behind Trump in Indiana, with Kasich carrying enough support currently to give Cruz the win. Kasich supporters, even if they hate Cruz, need to understand that the only way Kasich can win at the convention is for Cruz to win Indiana. So I'd say Cruz probably has at least a 40% chance to win IN. If he wins IN, I'd say he's got a better than 50% chance to get to a second ballot based on polling and Kasich and Cruz working together. If they make it to the convention without Trump getting the majority of the delegates, he's probably got a 85%-90% chance of being nominated just because he would be by far the most legitimate alternative to Trump.

 

[sloanMB]

 

[toolucky52384]

Well, I don't know where those numbers come from. Current polling would suggest he's only a few points behind Trump in Indiana, with Kasich carrying enough support currently to give Cruz the win. Kasich supporters, even if they hate Cruz, need to understand that the only way Kasich can win at the convention is for Cruz to win Indiana. So I'd say Cruz probably has at least a 40% chance to win IN. If he wins IN, I'd say he's got a better than 50% chance to get to a second ballot based on polling and Kasich and Cruz working together. If they make it to the convention without Trump getting the majority of the delegates, he's probably got a 85%-90% chance of being nominated just because he would be by far the most legitimate alternative to Trump.

The numbers are my perception / my handicapping. Understand you might not believe they accurately reflect the probabilities, but I do... your numbers would suggest that there is an 18% chance it isn't trump... still not very high.

 

[jbmorse4]

330 Million Americans, and we couldn't 2 better candidates. Damn shame...

^^^THIS^^^

 

[Corpcopy1]

Let's get it on......

Can't wait for the gloves to come off. In the first debate, what is the over/under on how soon Trump brings up Benghazi.

 

[na_alum]

I believe the worst candidate that every Clemson fan will win, and we will also start to bleed from our eyes as soon as the election is over.

I personally plan to bleed from our eyes.

 

[pharout73]

Where is will not vote?

 

[na_alum]

Where is will not vote?

Right besides 'rapture' choice.

 

[The Mixed Mamba]

really incredible how unfavorable the nominees are to the general public. Wishing Joe Biden or Michael Bloomberg had run, neither are my ideal, but at least I respect them both for being honest and having a vision of what they want to accomplish. Really ideologically am close to Romney, but he was a turrible candidate.

I thought Bloomberg would've been a good candidate, but I understand why he didn't run. There were others as well, who not perfect by any means, that I think make more viable candidates.

Other countries are laughing at us over our candidates.

The only positive is that this race will be fun to follow. The debates btw those two should be pure comedy.

 

[toolucky52384]

Well, I don't know where those numbers come from. Current polling would suggest he's only a few points behind Trump in Indiana, with Kasich carrying enough support currently to give Cruz the win. Kasich supporters, even if they hate Cruz, need to understand that the only way Kasich can win at the convention is for Cruz to win Indiana. So I'd say Cruz probably has at least a 40% chance to win IN. If he wins IN, I'd say he's got a better than 50% chance to get to a second ballot based on polling and Kasich and Cruz working together. If they make it to the convention without Trump getting the majority of the delegates, he's probably got a 85%-90% chance of being nominated just because he would be by far the most legitimate alternative to Trump.

further justification of my handicapping:

Political analysts largely believe 1150 delegates will clinch the nomination due to the number of unbound delegates walking into the convention.

Trump currently has 990+ delegates with 502 remaining.

Even if he loses Indiana he only needs 36% of remaining delegates to hit 1150.

Cruz needs to pick up 4 of 5 Kasich supporters to equal Trump in national polling.

Cruz and Kasich campaigns are not bringing in money, folks have given up.

CNN's live prediction tracker says 87% trump... inbetween your figures and mine. (closer to yours granted)

 

[na_alum]

further justification of my handicapping:

Political analysts largely believe 1150 delegates will clinch the nomination due to the number of unbound delegates walking into the convention.

Trump currently has 990+ delegates with 502 remaining.

Even if he loses Indiana he only needs 36% of remaining delegates to hit 1150.

Cruz needs to pick up 4 of 5 Kasich supporters to equal Trump in national polling.

Cruz and Kasich campaigns are not bringing in money, folks have given up.

CNN's live prediction tracker says 87% trump... inbetween your figures and mine. (closer to yours granted)

You should prolly suck on Trump a little longer.

 

[Lakeshow85]

Clinton will win but I believe Trump will make it interesting because of his appeal in the rust belt area. Ted Cruz is embarrassing himself if he was the nominee Clinton would win in a landslide. Biden has to regret not running because he would have been the next President.

 

[71tig]

Please , please remember that the next President will nominate perhaps as many as 4 Supreme Court justices . I do not care if the GOP candidate is Godzilla I will vote for him rather than allow Hillary ( Obama 2 ) to pick those justices who will only mirror the last two ! IMHO in this cycle it's not who you are for its who you're against . Now if you are a socialist , liberal Democrat who wants the USA to become like France you have a different take and are pulling for Hillery ! Life's about choices and sometime it's about the lesser of two evils !

 

[toolucky52384]

You should prolly suck on Trump a little longer.

can't stand trump... i like math and predictive analysis.

 

[toolucky52384]

Where is will not vote?

if you will not vote... then don't vote in the poll.

 

[na_alum]

can't stand trump... i like math and predictive analysis.

Same.

 

[toolucky52384]

Results Summary So Far (for those who don't like adding):

63% of the board believes Clinton Will Win.
67% of the board will vote for Trump.
21% of the board will vote 3rd party. (my guess, number will decrease as election nears)

I am very interested to see how the electoral map works itself out this year... I'm thinking Trump will bring some odd states into play.

 

[iamzcaptn]

It's been inevitable since the very beginning of the race. I won't be voting as I don't really think it makes a difference which one of those clowns is the operating "face" of our country for the next 4 years.

 

[na_alum]

Results Summary So Far (for those who don't like adding):

63% of the board believes Clinton Will Win.
67% of the board will vote for Trump.
21% of the board will vote 3rd party. (my guess, number will decrease as election nears)

I am very interested to see how the electoral map works itself out this year... I'm thinking Trump will bring some odd states into play.

Blue will win, ultimately, but...yeah....red will show up in weird places this year.

Then we'll ultimately have the 'fashion' vote. From what I hear, the clip-on tie vote will be short.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

further justification of my handicapping:

Political analysts largely believe 1150 delegates will clinch the nomination due to the number of unbound delegates walking into the convention.

Trump currently has 990+ delegates with 502 remaining.

Even if he loses Indiana he only needs 36% of remaining delegates to hit 1150.

Cruz needs to pick up 4 of 5 Kasich supporters to equal Trump in national polling.

Cruz and Kasich campaigns are not bringing in money, folks have given up.

CNN's live prediction tracker says 87% trump... inbetween your figures and mine. (closer to yours granted)

For one thing, I think Cruz's chances of keeping Trump from getting a majority of delegates going into the convention goes up with every win he has. So if he wins Indiana, his chance of keeping Trump from winning on the first ballot goes up. He also doesn't need to equal Trump in national polling, he just needs to keep Trump from having a majority of delegates. I also question the "folks have given up narrative," given that Cruz's position looked pretty good prior to this week. Your link is mostly about donors who won't support Cruz because they never liked him from the start, and who won't support Kasich because they know they're throwing money away.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

Results Summary So Far (for those who don't like adding):

63% of the board believes Clinton Will Win.
67% of the board will vote for Trump.
21% of the board will vote 3rd party. (my guess, number will decrease as election nears)

I am very interested to see how the electoral map works itself out this year... I'm thinking Trump will bring some odd states into play.

That third party number could wildly increase if there's a third party candidate attractive enough to most Republicans.

 

[na_alum]

That third party number could wildly increase if there's a third party candidate attractive enough to most Republicans.

Not going to happen, IMO.

It's Trump or none.

Doesn't matter...Hillary could rape a small monkey....on tape at this point....and still win.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

Clinton will win but I believe Trump will make it interesting because of his appeal in the rust belt area. Ted Cruz is embarrassing himself if he was the nominee Clinton would win in a landslide. Biden has to regret not running because he would have been the next President.

This is basically conjecture based on a made up reality. Trump doesn't poll anywhere near Clinton in the general election. Cruz does.

You're confusing Trump's appeal in the Republican primary with his potential appeal in the general election. He's not going to win Democratic states because he'll drive up the Democratic turnout in opposition to him. He would probably lose in a McGovernesque fashion because so many people in his own party will refuse to vote for him.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

Not going to happen, IMO.

It's Trump or none.

Doesn't matter...Hillary could rape a small monkey....on tape at this point....and still win.

Why do you think "it's Trump or none?" Where's that coming from?

I didn't say that a third party candidate would have a chance to win, only that a sizeable portion of Republican voters would vote for a third party over Trump if there were a good third party candidate.

 

[na_alum]

This is basically conjecture based on a made up reality. Trump doesn't poll anywhere near Clinton in the general election. Cruz does.

You're confusing Trump's appeal in the Republican primary with his potential appeal in the general election. He's not going to win Democratic states because he'll drive up the Democratic turnout in opposition to him. He would probably lose in a McGovernesque fashion because so many people in his own party will refuse to vote for him.

 

[na_alum]

Why do you think "it's Trump or none?" Where's that coming from?

I didn't say that a third party candidate would have a chance to win, only that a sizeable portion of Republican voters would vote for a third party over Trump if there were a good third party candidate.

I'm thinking "I don't care who Trump runs against....he's gonna lose".

pretty much to the point.

 

[Lakeshow85]

This is basically conjecture based on a made up reality. Trump doesn't poll anywhere near Clinton in the general election. Cruz does.

You're confusing Trump's appeal in the Republican primary with his potential appeal in the general election. He's not going to win Democratic states because he'll drive up the Democratic turnout in opposition to him. He would probably lose in a McGovernesque fashion because so many people in his own party will refuse to vote for him.

Clinton against Ted Cruz is basically Clinton running unopposed. Cruz would have no chance in hell. Kasich would have the best chance but Trump is a much stronger general election candidate than Cruz. I don't care what general election poll say right now. Moderates will decide the election and Cruz has zero appeal among them. That's why it's a stupid argument to make that Cruz would get Kasich voters if he dropped out Trump would get plenty of them.

 

[tigrbybirth]

Agreed. For the first time in my existence I am going to have a hard time voting for either.... It's pathetic that these two are the inevitable candidates.

I personally think that either one of those two would have been better than Bernie though.... That dude scared the crap out of me. And I was even more scared about the amount of support a self renowned socialist received. Democrat or Republican, that is not good folks. When a socialist has a real shot at a nomination it isn't good for anyone.

Really wish a logical candidate was running for both parties. This election is embarrassing.

I disagreed with Sanders quite a bit, but his plans were so unrealistic that none of that would get done. With Trump, his image is the worst thing about him. He's an uninformed pompous blow hard. The president has very little formal power. It's all about image and the bully pulpit.

I had to smile reading an earlier post where someone spoke favorably about Romney. I agree, but what many people fail to realize is that philosophically, Romney and Clinton are pretty close. I'm wondering what it is about Clinton that's so problematic and I keep coming back to arrogance. The rules didn't apply to Bill and Hillary seems to think that they don't apply to her either. She's not Teflon.

 

[tigrbybirth]

Please , please remember that the next President will nominate perhaps as many as 4 Supreme Court justices . I do not care if the GOP candidate is Godzilla I will vote for him rather than allow Hillary ( Obama 2 ) to pick those justices who will only mirror the last two ! IMHO in this cycle it's not who you are for its who you're against . Now if you are a socialist , liberal Democrat who wants the USA to become like France you have a different take and are pulling for Hillery ! Life's about choices and sometime it's about the lesser of two evils !

Hillary is more moderate than you might think. There are two ends of the Democratic party, the Kennedy - Obama end and the Clinton - Clinton end. How do you think George HW and Bill got to be such close friends?