Playoff Projections Post Week 2

[wildkit_fan]

Went another level of detail & used Massey projected winner for every remaining games to project season records. This allows me to project opponent wins and therefore uses IHSA tie-breaking system for 4 win teams.



Several teams back up to 8A (Maine South, Palatine, Hinsdale Central)

 

[Alexander33]

Went another level of detail & used Massey projected winner for every remaining games to project season records. This allows me to project opponent wins and therefore uses IHSA tie-breaking system for 4 win teams.
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Several teams back up to 8A (Maine South, Palatine, Hinsdale Central)

Glenbard East lost to West Aurora this past weekend.

Otherwise, it is fun to see how the season progresses from this particular angle. As is usual, the IHSA formula is providing very good (and misleading) seeds for several "paper tigers". Shepard, Belvidere North, Lane and Curie are not nearly as good as their projected seeds suggest.

 

[4Afan]

Great work. Love that you seed all classes 1-32, as it should be. Some really interesting 1st round matchups or potential 2nd round games in this projection.

This has ESL at 6-3, but they will only play 8 games this year. Not sure how that effects their playoff points and seeding.

 

[cornerrat#1]

Great work. Love that you seed all classes 1-32, as it should be. Some really interesting 1st round matchups or potential 2nd round games in this projection.

This has ESL at 6-3, but they will only play 8 games this year. Not sure how that effects their playoff points and seeding.

All.... Since the week two game was scheduled the Flyers get a forfeit win over the Jaguars. Although Gadsden will not be allowed to play postseason and I haven't heard if they dumped regular season play they still have seven more games to play. Currently sitting at 0-2. If I recall correctly any wins by this team will give playoff points to the Flyers. I assume that is still the way it will go even with a forfeit win. Ratsy

 

[wildkit_fan]

Great work. Love that you seed all classes 1-32, as it should be. Some really interesting 1st round matchups or potential 2nd round games in this projection.

This has ESL at 6-3, but they will only play 8 games this year. Not sure how that effects their playoff points and seeding.

I think IHSA is counting ESL as forfeit, vs Loyola is considered to play only 8 games since a game was never scheduled.

 

[wildkit_fan]

Thanks. Updated 7A bracket

 

[wildkit_fan]

Massey metrics are available for download and I believe I now have the full IHSA schedule for the season, so in order to update this easily weekly, I just need all of the results from the previous week. If anyone knows an easy way to download this, please help a friend out.

 

[Cross Bones]

Dont like.

 

[mikeywoj]

Highland Park and Lane

 

[wildkit_fan]

Highland Park and Lane

You all are good QA. My 6A was wrong (excel formula off by 1 row), Highland Park not expected to be 8-1. Corrected:

 

[Wilmatucky1]

You have Peotone in 2A and Wilmington in 3A. Per IHSA site, Wilmington is 7 students smaller?

 

[wildkit_fan]

You have Peotone in 2A and Wilmington in 3A. Per IHSA site, Wilmington is 7 students smaller?

Looks like the IHSA has updated the enrollment numbers after I grabbed them a couple weeks back. Will update. Thanks

 

[LWN_Pheonix]

From what I hear LWE is petitioning down to 6A

 

[wildkit_fan]

Using updated enrollment numbers per IHSA and corrections pointed out above:

 

[Wilmatucky1]

I figured it was some type of error. Thanks for doing these, I'm sure it's a ton of work.

 

[Cpacmel11]

Some really interesting match-ups in both the first and 2nd rounds. Of course, it will change. But cool stuff to see. Thanks for posting.

 

[TailgateTalker]

This is awesome. Thank you for doing this weekly

 

[AlabamaTimberwolf]

Good work... Lots of ifs but the small things still are cool to speculate. Should Chatham go 9-0 does that bump up Prairie Ridge up to the 5A North bracket and drop UHigh to the South bracket? The same for several other schools throughout the classes.

 

[4Afan]

Good work... Lots of ifs but the small things still are cool to speculate. Should Chatham go 9-0 does that bump up Prairie Ridge up to the 5A North bracket and drop UHigh to the South bracket? The same for several other schools throughout the classes.

He did these projection seedings 1-32 in all classes, the way it should be, not north and south.