That would never happen.
Unless you are predicting all these networks are going to start airing LESS games overall and paying less money to the conference.
TV Networks: We are only going to air OSU, MU, MSU and Wisconsin. No one else.
Conference: Ummm that’s only like 7 games a year. What about the other games like when they play Rutgers?
TV Networks: Okay fine we will air those games too then but that’s it!
Conference: So you are going to pay us the same money but only air 4 games a week? What will you use to fill all that other empty space?
Are you going to pay more money to broadcast something else?
TV Networks: We’ll get back to you.
That's nuts... your 4 teams are not like the 4 they would choose.. PSU would be in there for sure.. but the point is those teams each play 12 games, right? Only some are against each other.
But I'll consider your objection.
ESPN/ABC have likely helped the SEC expand with Texas and Oklahoma. They will have, what, prime slots on ABC and then ESPN with other game son ESPN2, ESPNU, the SEC Network, the Longhorn Network (and lets assume the ACC network as a s separate issue).
Will ESPN/ABC need to bid for other conferences TV rights at all?
The SEC will have 16 teams and 8 games a week in conference play and 12+ in OOC play with bye weeks. Can they show 3 games per channel by balancing conference and OOC play? 6 channels with 3 game start times in 18 games. That's what they need. If they have 4 conference games (using 8 teams) and 8 non-conference games that gives them 12 (edit: I forgot that attractive ooc games will be home and homes.. but SEC rarely does that.. they will play neutral site or home games only OOC) . I think maybe they fill the schedule with cheaper games from cheaper conference rights deals.
They would need to bid so high to get a piece of Big Ten rights, PAC 12 rights, and Big XII rights will be in a middling property.. not low-level like ConfUSA or Mountain West but will not require laying out big money to fluff out their schedule of games.
And ESPN/ABC is the place that airs the most games. If they can be satisfied without bidding high for any Big Ten or PAC games.. the TV contract money paid would shrink.. relatively speaking.. that is, not grow as it has been.
Fox FoxSports airs fewer games... BTN is owned by the Big Ten and FoxSports. They also bid on PAC and Big XII games.
AS ESPN/ABC invests heavily in the SEC, I see less competition for Big Ten TV rights... and more control granted to those who do bid for such rights. Of course, BTN could still air every game of every team.. if they adjust the start times and days of the week more and more... but what does that do to ad revenues?
For that matter, this whole supply chain thing could result in fewer ad dollars being out there for TV rights overall... it is a whole new world out there. Will TV deals take a hit? It is anyone's guess.. but costs to run programs are rising... will revenues match or will concessions be made?
A lot goes into what games a TV network airs.. what it wants to air, what it must air by contract, etc. I am suggesting that networks may get the upper hand in such negotiations and how will that affect the non-name-brand teams in conferences? Will they be kicking off at 11, aired in SD on some backup cable channel? Will they ever appear in a primetime Saturday broadcast?
Do some googling.. find stories like this one..
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/09...r-the-networks-as-it-is-frustrating-for-fans/
