Pac-12 current status…

[Maroon Eagle]

TLDR…

 

[Dawgg]

Sounds like Michael Crow, ASU’s President, has been a real pain in the аss about the whole thing. Could answer the @Perd Hapley questions about why Arizona was the Big 12’s choice over Arizona State. It’s not the program. It’s the personnel.

 

[patdog]

Sounds like Michael Crow, ASU’s President, has been a real pain in the аss about the whole thing. Could answer the @Perd Hapley questions about why Arizona was the Big 12’s choice over Arizona State. It’s not the program. It’s the personnel.

I've never seen a President and AD work so hard to try to sabotage their own school's best interest and stay on the sinking ship till the end.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

The problem with all this is that there isn't really a good line in which things solidify. Right now, we've got Colorado and Arizona to the Big 12. PAC could likely go another decade, but you know Arizona State and Utah are close behind to the Big 12. Then the PAC falls apart, or do they? Do those 6 left stick together and do the SDSU/SMU thing, and maybe Boise and one more?

But if the B1G makes a move, you know the SEC will have to counter.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

SEC isn't going to just make a move. No reason to.

 

[Dawgg]

When they release the 30 for 30 or Apple TV+ limited series on this round of realignment, it will be must watch television.

So, as of this morning, "sources" started leaking to members of the media that a miracle had happened and the Pac-12 was meeting this morning with the intention to sign the grant of rights deal with Apple, thus preserving the 9 team Pac-12. The meeting happened and no deal was signed, with Oregon being the biggest voice in the room saying 'no'. Turns out, it was all just a ploy from Oregon to kick the Big Ten into gear if they're going to offer, which they're expected to this afternoon.

If you like to see dueling narratives, just look at Brett McMurphy, Ross Dellenger, and Pac-12 apologist John Canzano's twitter accounts over the past 24 hours.

 

[columbiadawg2]

I just can't see the PAC12 lasting long even if they band together right now. That media deal isn't going to cut it and the financial disparity between them and the other P5 leagues (minus the ACC) is going to continue to grow.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I think they're toast. And I really do feel for the Oregon State and Wazzu type teams.

 

[o_dawgnabit]

Does the BIG10 deal allow for the tv networks to have to pay more for their tv deal when they add someone? I know a lot of the issue with why the sec's doors seem closed is because the deal is in place and that would just mean more slices of the pie and less for each school.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

 

[Rupert Jenkins]

Does the BIG10 deal allow for the tv networks to have to pay more for their tv deal when they add someone? I know a lot of the issue with why the sec's doors seem closed is because the deal is in place and that would just mean more slices of the pie and less for each school.

As far as SEC is concerned it was my understanding that the SEC was told they could add teams and said teams would get an added share the same as all others. Not a reduction. Now this was back when they were adding UT and Oklahoma so it might be different now

 

[patdog]

Does the BIG10 deal allow for the tv networks to have to pay more for their tv deal when they add someone? I know a lot of the issue with why the sec's doors seem closed is because the deal is in place and that would just mean more slices of the pie and less for each school.

I don’t think they do. They’ll have to negotiate an amendment to their deals. I think it’s a given that Oregon & Washington will not get a full share of the revenue distribution. Probably only the incremental revenue they bring. Still a much better deal for them than the turd the PAC negotiated.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

 

[Dawgg]

 

[Dawgg]

The problem with all this is that there isn't really a good line in which things solidify. Right now, we've got Colorado and Arizona to the Big 12. PAC could likely go another decade, but you know Arizona State and Utah are close behind to the Big 12. Then the PAC falls apart, or do they? Do those 6 left stick together and do the SDSU/SMU thing, and maybe Boise and one more?

But if the B1G makes a move, you know the SEC will have to counter.

We'll know more for sure after the Big Ten meets today, but right now, I'm leaning towards this happening over the next 12-96 hours:
Arizona announces today a move to the Big 12 for 2024
Big Ten vote to admit Oregon and Washington in 2024 and both announce their intentions to move over the weekend
Arizona and Utah announce a 2024 move to the Big 12 over the weekend or on Monday

Oregon State and Washington State and the Mountain West are a little bit tricky because of the MWC media deal. Would the MWC absorb OSU and WSU or does the Pac-2 absorb the MWC. The current MWC media deal began in 2021 and runs through 2026 and includes the CBS Sports Network and Fox. The deal is only worth $4 million per year per school, but each school stands a chance of appearing on a channel somebody watches.

My thinking is OSU and WSU makes a deal with the MWC for the MWC to dissolve and most/all members join the Pac in 2024. This helps retain the Pac-12 brand name and rights, future payments, etc. I think at that point, ESPN will come in with a MUCH lower bid for rights (but higher than CBSSN/Fox) so they don't completely lose the West Coast and the late night time slot (which they would if Oregon and Washington go Big Ten). Either that or Apple returns a lower offer (but higher than CBSSN/Fox). Pac will lose its status as "power" conference, like the Big East before it, but it at least survives with its brand name.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

We'll know more for sure after the Big Ten meets today, but right now, I'm leaning towards this happening over the next 12-96 hours:
Arizona announces today a move to the Big 12 for 2024
Big Ten vote to admit Oregon and Washington in 2024 and both announce their intentions to move over the weekend
Arizona and Utah announce a 2024 move to the Big 12 over the weekend or on Monday

Oregon State and Washington State and the Mountain West are a little bit tricky because of the MWC media deal. Would the MWC absorb OSU and WSU or does the Pac-2 absorb the MWC. The current MWC media deal began in 2021 and runs through 2026 and includes the CBS Sports Network and Fox. The deal is only worth $4 million per year per school, but each school stands a chance of appearing on a channel somebody watches.

My thinking is OSU and WSU makes a deal with the MWC for the MWC to dissolve and most/all members join the Pac in 2024. This helps retain the Pac-12 brand name and rights, future payments, etc. I think at that point, ESPN will come in with a MUCH lower bid for rights (but higher than CBSSN/Fox) so they don't completely lose the West Coast and the late night time slot (which they would if Oregon and Washington go Big Ten). Either that or Apple returns a lower offer (but higher than CBSSN/Fox). Pac will lose its status as "power" conference, like the Big East before it, but it at least survives with its brand name.

Don't forget about Stanford and Cal, they are still hanging out there on a limb.....

I have no idea what's going on here.

 

[Dawgg]

Don't forget about Stanford and Cal, they are still hanging out there on a limb.....

Hahaha I forgot about them... as has most of the country during this...

I don't see the Big Ten coming for them... not really... That makes me lean more towards the MWC dissolving and joining the Pac en masse. That would be a 16 team conference with:
Oregon State
Washington State
Stanford
Cal-Berkley
Air Force
Boise State
Fresno State
Colorado State
Nevada
UNLV
New Mexico
SDSU
SJSU
Utah State
Wyoming
Hawai'i

Currently, Hawai'i is football only and would probably continue that way. You could drop Gonzaga in for non-football sports.


ETA: I would replace George Kliavkoff with Gloria Nevarez as part of the deal.

 

[patdog]

Don't forget about Stanford and Cal, they are still hanging out there on a limb.....

I have no idea what's going on here.

You’ve got to think that either the Big 10 or Big 12 will eventually take them. Which would put 1 of those conferences at 20 members. It’s just ridiculous. PAC-12 could have survived with competent leadership, both from the commissioner & the school presidents.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Don't forget about Stanford and Cal, they are still hanging out there on a limb.....

I have no idea what's going on here.

You’ve got to think that either the Big 10 or Big 12 will eventually take them. Which would put 1 of those conferences at 20 members. It’s just ridiculous. PAC-12 could have survived with competent leadership, both from the commissioner & the school presidents.

I have said not to underestimate Stanford’s economic power. But considering that their President resigned last month, who knows?

Worst case and at the same time probably the most pragmatic scenario for Stanford: Take the BYU route. Join the West Coast Conference, be a football independent, and wait it out.

 

[Dawgg]

I have said not to underestimate Stanford’s economic power. But considering that their President resigned last month, who knows?

Worst case and at the same time probably the most pragmatic scenario for Stanford: Take the BYU route. Join the West Coast Conference, be a football independent, and wait it out.

That may actually be a good plan for Stanford. I would worry about the loss of football and basketball revenue subsidizing their millions of non-revenue sports, but I'm sure a big chunk of that was coming from other sources anyway. Still, Stanford going an independent route could get them a one-off deal with ESPN, which gives ESPN at least an occasional West Coast game and would allow Stanford to schedule games with Cal, ND, and some of their old Pac conference mates.