Over/Under on Win Totals

[messageboardsuperhero]

Checking up on tonight’s baseball lines this morning and noticed this article on CFB win total over/unders.

https://www.sportsline.com/cfb/news...sissippi-state-ole-miss-but-under-on-alabama/

A whopping 99% of all money bet on our total is on us to go over 6 wins this season. Not sure I’ve ever seen that heavy of a betting lean in one direction- probably due to all of the SP+ and FPI projections having us winning between 7-8 games. It’s strange that Caesars hasn’t at least bumped our total to 6.5 or 7. Maybe they think we are closer to 5 wins than the general public? Either way, sharp money is more bullish on us than a lot of our fans.

Also of note, people are taking Kentucky over 7 and OM over 7.5. Kentucky’s schedule is absurdly easy, and it’s hard to see them winning less than 7 barring a major collapse.

Interesting to see a lot of money on OM going over 7.5 too. I could see 8-4 for them. Their offense is going to keep them in most every game, but their defense is going to probably keep the opponent in most games too. Matt Corral might honestly be the difference in them being an 8-4 and a 4-8 type of season. OM had a top 5 offense in SEC history last year and still only went 4-5 (would have been 4-6 if they had played A&M)- that is how bad their defense was.

 

[IPMdawg]

That Ole Miss bet is fool’s gold. Reports out of camp are that their defense is as slow as ever. It’s being generous to say that talent wise they are the same team as last year. Dynamic offense. Horrendous defense. They squeaked a few wins last year that could’ve easily been losses. The media are going to hype Kiffin into such an unrealistic result on the season that a 6-6 finish will have the fans calling for his head.

 

[Mobile Bay]

That Ole Miss bet is fool’s gold. Reports out of camp are that their defense is as slow as ever. It’s being generous to say that talent wise they are the same team as last year. Dynamic offense. Horrendous defense. They squeaked a few wins last year that could’ve easily been losses. The media are going to hype Kiffin into such an unrealistic result on the season that a 6-6 finish will have the fans calling for his head.

Meanwhile Neil McCredy was on local radio here this morning saying 9-10 wins is the expectation. What a doofus.

 

[patdog]

How accurate are these numbers? I can’t believe that many people are betting the over on 6 wins for us, or that the line wouldn’t move if much more than half we’re betting one way or the other. My suspicion is that stats like this are put out as misinformation.

 

[Drebin]

That Ole Miss bet is fool’s gold. Reports out of camp are that their defense is as slow as ever. It’s being generous to say that talent wise they are the same team as last year. Dynamic offense. Horrendous defense. They squeaked a few wins last year that could’ve easily been losses. The media are going to hype Kiffin into such an unrealistic result on the season that a 6-6 finish will have the fans calling for his head.

Ole Miss will not be as good offensively this year as they were last year. They'll be good on that side of the ball, no doubt. They have a good line and they have some playmakers at RB. But they can't replace Elijah Moore. I bet they run the ball a lot more this year than they did last year.

 

[Drebin]

Meanwhile Neil McCredy was on local radio here this morning saying 9-10 wins is the expectation. What a doofus.

McReady's prediction carries more weight because he's Not A Fan™

 

[dorndawg]

How accurate are these numbers? I can’t believe that many people are betting the over on 6 wins for us, or that the line wouldn’t move if much more than half we’re betting one way or the other. My suspicion is that stats like this are put out as misinformation.

Triple fake out from Vegas

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Ole Miss will not be as good offensively this year as they were last year. They'll be good on that side of the ball, no doubt. They have a good line and they have some playmakers at RB. But they can't replace Elijah Moore. I bet they run the ball a lot more this year than they did last year.

I agree offensively they probably take a small step back with no Moore or Yeboah. Defensively they’re probably going to be slightly improved but still quite bad. It equals out and they are about what they were in 2020, which could still very well be 8-4 looking at how weak their schedule appears.

People forget that they really didn’t beat anyone in 2020. Their best wins were against an overrated Indiana team without their QB and UK, who lost the game on a missed XP. Outside of that, they beat us by a TD and two terrible teams (Vandy and Carolina). And they got to dodge A&M. Frankly, our wins over LSU, Mizzou, and even Tulsa were as good as any of their wins.

 

[ChinaDogSunflower]

They have a very good QB that will be drafted in the first 3 rounds next year, maybe first day, barring a catastrophe. They have a great offensive coach too. Their D will be miserable but they will outshoot teams. They go bowling and pending a few friendly bounces that they always get, they can win 7-8 games without much shock.

ETA: To clarify, I'm not saying Corral is a first round lock. But Sean Glennon got drafted first round so teams will easily reach. Corral has a better highlight reel than Glennon too IMO