Our path to Atlanta

[QuaoarsKing]

• Win out and get to 6-2 (obviously)
• Alabama loses twice (unlikely) OR get in a 3-way tie with Alabama and Texas A&M at 6-2 while Auburn beats Alabama and finishes 4th in the division.

The ones in green are needed. The ones in yellow don't really matter - we still win the West if a couple of those go the other way.

Not very likely, but more likely than anyone is currently thinking.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I think with a 3-way tie w/ Bama and A&M, it comes down to our records against SEC West teams from best to worst. That would mean that Bama would be eliminated due to losing to Auburn, but I'm unclear on whether that then would make us consider head to head w/ A&M or whether we'd go down the list still to compare records against West teams. If the latter, we'd have incentive for LSU to finish below Arkansas. If it's the former, it doesn't matter -- we'd win head to head against A&M

 

[QuaoarsKing]

A 3-way tie with Auburn and Alabama doesn't work, because we'd all be 6-2 and 1-1 against each other, but Auburn would have only 1 loss in the division, compared to us and Alabama having 2. It's got to be Alabama, Texas A&M, and us, all 6-2 and 1-1, and Auburn has to finish in front of LSU and Arkansas in the standings.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

I think with a 3-way tie w/ Bama and A&M, it comes down to our records against SEC West teams from best to worst. That would mean that Bama would be eliminated due to losing to Auburn, but I'm unclear on whether that then would make us consider head to head w/ A&M or whether we'd go down the list still to compare records against West teams. If the latter, we'd have incentive for LSU to finish below Arkansas. If it's the former, it doesn't matter -- we'd win head to head against A&M

SEC rules state that any time a 3-way tiebreaker eliminates 1 team, it immediately reverts to the top of the 2-way tiebreaker rules.

 

[patdog]

If the 3-way tiebreak eliminates 1 team, then it goes back to the top of the 2-team tiebreak rules. So, we'd play UGA in Atlanta.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I'd still take Bama losses to LSU and/or Arkansas. I get that it's unlikely that they're going to lose to LSU or Arkansas, but it'd give Texas A&M flexibility to lose another (e.g. LSU, Ole Miss) as long as it's not Auburn. If we and A&M beat Auburn, they're at 3 losses, so they're likely out. If Auburn beats Bama, Bama would be at 2 losses assuming they beat LSU and Arkansas, which would be great if A&M was 6-2, but awful if A&M lost to Ole Miss or LSU. Everyone else at 5-3 is still possible for now, so I'll be pulling for Bama to lose as long as we and A&M beat Auburn.