OT- Supply Chain Meltdown

[Bill Shankly]

I read an article, I think in the WSJ, about this last week. It basically said this was starting to show a little pre-pandemic. Shipping companies (land and sea) weren't making that much money and were cutting out excess capacity. When the pandemic hit they cut even more as orders dried up and not nearly as much was being shipped. When people realized that this was going to be an extended thing and not just a few months, they started spending money, lots of it, on THINGS. The money that used to go into eating out and travel is going into washing machines, TVs, sofas, cars, etc. It created a perfect storm: workforce issues that every industry is facing, increased demand, and years of reducing excess capacity (ships, trains, trucks, and the people to run them) lead to a backlog that isn't going away anytime soon. Increasing capacity in those takes major investment and time. That is assuming that the companies want to increase capacity. They are still thinking about when demand for shipping returns to normal. That was the cliff notes version.

 

[GloryDawg]

They have no way to move it all. It takes transportation to do that. I read an interview with the NY port group and they said there isn't enough transportation to handle it, so it sits there. We already knew there was a trucking shortage. Even the rail service is overwhelmed.

The military could solve the problem. Integrate them in with civilian workers. Staff the ware house with pretty much any military personnel. Use the ARMY's M88 motors operators to do the trucking. The Marine Corps has three Landing Support Battalions. Send one each to Long Beach, NY, and Savanah GA to unload ships. The military will bill those private business for the expenses.

 

[mcdawg22]

You be ok on Paper. That new washing machine might be out of a question.***** I just wish I knew what toys were going to be popular and go out and buy a bunch of them now and then rip them a big one on eBay in December.

I’ll give you a hint…
View attachment 22339

 

[Smoked Toag]

I married into a "ready made" family and they do not drink tap water. Not even from the fridge, that filters it. The amount we spend on bottled water is ridiculous. The two oldest have since moved out, but for a while there I thought I was living in the movie Signs with half empty bottles of water sitting everywhere!

That is incredibly wasteful. Yeah, I have to admit, I am certainly judging your family. I just don't get it.

I used to recycle, but I realized it was like shooting a BB gun at a freight train, due to families like you describe. And ever been to a youth sporting event lately? Good Lord at the plastic bottles everywhere.

So, I just recycle my own now.

 

[Nunya.sixpack]

If the extra unemployment benefits were discontinued months ago, then what are these people doing for money to walk away from $15-$20/ hour jobs? What am i missing?

They are all taking up in the millions of new green jobs.**

 

[NWADawg]

A) Just because somebody quit, doesn't mean they also didn't take a new job.

B) It's not the full answer, but here's a partial answer that hasn't received much attention: Economists expected about 1.6 million American workers to retire in 2020. The actual number came in at 3.6 million. Couple that with several hundred thousand Covid deaths (many were older retirees but not all) and the labor pool is simply much smaller than pre-plague.

It is indeed a worker's market right now but all of this will come back to bight many in that $15-$30/hr range. The workers are getting paid well now but this does 2 things:

1. Stealing from Syndrome in Incredibles, When everyone is Super (high paid), no one will be. (cost will be so high it doesn't matter)
2. My industry is buying automation almost completely indiscriminately. It doesn't matter if you are the best automation supplier, we are buying from everyone with equipment available. Thousands of workers in that pay range will soon be replaced by machines that don't need vacations, raises, have sick days, etc. We will pay well for a small amount of people to operate this equipment but gone will be the day of employee shortage. I'm confident that other industries are doing the same thing.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Sorry , I thought it might be the socialist similarities

 

[thatsbaseball]

If there is demand why would warehouses be at capacity ?

 

[Drebin]

Hint- 'Build Back Better' was mentioned. Not really difficult to figure out.

You seem overly sensitive about it.

This is the truest statement you'll read in this thread: This is Joe Biden's America.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Be interesting to see how much impact the 700k+ COVID deaths had directly on the problem. My supposition is that a lot were older and post-work, but I wonder if there is any data that correlates the two?

 

[dorndawg]

It is indeed a worker's market right now but all of this will come back to bight many in that $15-$30/hr range. The workers are getting paid well now but this does 2 things:

1. Stealing from Syndrome in Incredibles, When everyone is Super (high paid), no one will be. (cost will be so high it doesn't matter)
2. My industry is buying automation almost completely indiscriminately. It doesn't matter if you are the best automation supplier, we are buying from everyone with equipment available. Thousands of workers in that pay range will soon be replaced by machines that don't need vacations, raises, have sick days, etc. We will pay well for a small amount of people to operate this equipment but gone will be the day of employee shortage. I'm confident that other industries are doing the same thing.

I agree automation is headed into overdrive(and of course was already trending that way), but machines that replace someone have to be manufactured, maintained, and tech-supported.

 

[dorndawg]

If there is demand why would warehouses be at capacity ?

Labor shortages & shipping disruptions. The widgets don't just magically appear at the point of sale.

 

[dorndawg]

Be interesting to see how much impact the 700k+ COVID deaths had directly on the problem. My supposition is that a lot were older and post-work, but I wonder if there is any data that correlates the two?

I'd spitball at least half were retired, but if close to half were workers thats a big number. Additionally, it would be interesting to learn how many folks unexpectedly came into some money via life insurance payments.

 

[RotorHead]

Same here.
Was informed post-matrimony that water "tastes different" and only certain brands are acceptable. Hell, to me, anything tastes fine as long as it isn't iodine water. The half-drank bottles of water drives me absolutely insane. My kids were too young to drink out of the bottles, so I knew that any half bottle lying around was either one the wife used to pour the kids OR one she had not finished, so I explored several courses of action:
1) I collected all the bottles around the house and consolidated them, then showed the wife how many full bottles of water we now had from all the half-finished ones around the house. She didn't like that
2) Every time I saw a half bottle of water, I drank it. She didn't like that either
3) Every time I saw a half bottle of water, I threw it away. She really didn't like that and claimed it was "wasteful"

All that to say...the numbers of half-drank water bottles has been reduced significantly around our house.