OT: Self driving cars

[ShrubDog]

The getting cheaper is not something I expect in the long run. People can say insurance cost etc but you will definitely pay a premium to use this so called fleet, back to the control issue.

 

[EngDawg]

No one said that in this thread, I was referencing it will be a govt controlled program. You have to drive this or that car and thats it. That is the point Im trying to make, I didn't say it clearly enough. That is my point about 'control'. It will not be an option, Musk said that not me.

Now Im talking in the future but once all this rolls out old cars will be deemed unsafe so we will have no choice.

Totally agree here. I thought this was a given so I neglected to mention it in my OP

 

[maroonmadman]

The technology may be closer than some of you think. Infiniti says plans on having this technology available by 2020. Personally I look forward to the day when drunks can stumble out of their local watering hole, get into their car and say "Take me home" and get home without being a danger to themselves or others. http://www.autoblog.com/2014/08/06/infiniti-q50-self-driving-video-autobahn/ I'll let you good folks know in a few weeks as my Q50 Hybrid is due to arrive before the end of the month.

 

[ShrubDog]

Good stuff man, I have enjoyed this debate.

 

[johnson86-1]

You couldn't be any further from the facts. You live under a rock if you think it will create more jobs. Yea there may be better jobs but overall humans will be replaced.

"There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation," says Musk to CNBC. "Yeah, I am not sure what else one would do. I think that is what would happen."

“By 2021 a disruptive tidal wave will begin. Solutions powered by AI/cognitive technology will displace jobs, with the biggest impact felt in transportation, logistics, customer service and consumer services,” said Forrester’s Brian Hopkins in the report.

By 2021, robots will have eliminated 6% of all jobs in the US, starting with customer service representatives and eventually truck and taxi drivers. That’s just one cheery takeaway from a report released by market research company Forrester this week.


Robots will have taken over most jobs within 30 years leaving humanity facing its 'biggest challenge ever' to find meaning in life when work is no longer necessary, according to experts.

Professor Moshe Vardi, of Rice University, in the US, claims that many middle-class professionals will be outsources to machines within the next few decades leaving workers with more leisure time than they have ever experienced.


Boston Consulting Group predicts that by 2025, up to a quarter of jobs will be replaced by either smart software or robots, while a study from Oxford University has suggested that 35% of existing UK jobs are at risk of automation in the next 20 years.

There have been fears about this every time technology disrupts something, and we always find new jobs, generally in service jobs providing luxuries that nobody else previously thought would be a part of every day life. I think this time will probably be similar but I do think that we are getting close to creating an underclass that will not want to offer what services they can offer into the market and/or the people that can pay for those services simply not wanting to deal with the people that offer them. Jobs like full time house managers (cleaning/cooking/maintenance) etc. could in theory suck up probably a fifth of the population, but I'm not sure people will want that (either as an employer or employee).

 

[johnson86-1]

It's a lot further off from working than people realize. All the "successes" now are on closed routes in ideal conditions. They expect you'll have to continuously "monitor conditions" so that you can take over on a moments notice if necessary....so what's the point?

That's my bet too. We are going to get 95% of the way there very quickly, but there are some things that are just hard to automate, even though they are often what we consider simple. Hell, sometimes there even hard to describe. Look how hard it is to have walking robots.

I hope I'm wrong because I would love to be able to travel by getting in the car, setting a destination 8 hours away, and then leaning back for some sleep, but I'm not sure we're going to get there soon. I just hope we get there by the time I'm too old to drive myself.

One interesting question would be whether self driving car will hammer airlines. I haven't though about it before, but how many flights would suddenly become undesirable because you don't have to physically drive? With the added time for airport security and renting a car and driving two and from the airport, basically anything within 4 hours drive is already a no flight zone unless timing works out perfectly. For the difference in price, I'd gladly do an overnight drive rather than paying for a flight if I didn't actually have to drive and could just read and sleep.

 

[Hoover Dawg]

I don't want a robot knowing my habits. Mainly because I don't have many. The only way your model works is if it's totally on-demand.

 

[johnson86-1]

A company I work with, my main account, is going to start using Otto in the upcoming 12months for local plant transfers of freight. Think Otto down in STL with the Budweiser transfers during the night.
It wont reduce any driver work as there is a driver shortage in this country with an aging driver population. This product would have moved...eventually...due to their driver shortage(at the price they want to pay).

As for how I feel about all this-

- I am concerned as a cyclist. I wouldnt be surprised to see that many here dont understand rules of the road, but cyclists have every right to be on the roads. I am interested to learn how self driving vehicles adjust for unforseen obstacles such as animals(deer, squirrels) and congestion obstacles like car doors, pedestrians, and cyclists.

- I enjoy driving. I dont find it to be a hassle, but also have a 20min commute which is never more than about 25min even with snow on the road. If I were in a highly congested area, I might feel differently.

- How will this affect those who speed because they are in a hurry(late for work/meeting/activity)? Thatll be interesting to see.



Since I havent bought a new car...ever...I cant imagine I will get to this technology very soon, even though I could afford it. I already havent been able to accept paying so many hundreds of dollars a month for a new car, it certainly wont be cheaper once its automatic driving.

I don't think bikers really play into it. Hell, a self-driving car is probably way less likely to injure a biker, because they won't be pissed that some jackass is peddling his bike 20 mph on a recreational ride on a road with a 55 mph speed limit that other people are using to actually get to places like jobs.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Tesla is still a novelty car for most Americans. You can't travel in one yet.

Why do you say this? I recently spent some time with a couple driving from Maine to Miami in their Model S. They were having a blast with no problems at all. I live a mile from a Supercharger station and every time I go by there most of the plates are out of state. The car can tell you when it needs a charge and where to go to charge it.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

You go it!!!

I don't want a robot knowing my habits. Mainly because I don't have many. The only way your model works is if it's totally on-demand.

It will be on demand except for those that want their own self driving cars.

Look up Amazon's floating warehouse patent filing.


I call this new economy the "on demand society." Cloud technology got this kick started.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

People are uninformed Bulldogg31. They won't research it. Close minded or unwilling to adapt and embrace the new change. Some of these people were probably late to computers and cell phones as well.


Btw, smart phones will be obsolete in about 5 years as well. Combo of wearables and AI.

 

[Bulldogg31]

People are uninformed Bulldogg31. They won't research it. They are probably scared.

No doubt. One quick way to become an angry old man is to hate everything new and decide everyone else is an idiot. A lot of folks missing out on some pretty awesome stuff going on.

 

[SwampDawg]

OK, I'll just wave to you when I'm doing the speed limit and pass you, and you're chugging along because your car was told there was congestion 5 miles ahead. Now over and out. Let's both just hide and watch.

 

[VillagepeopleDogs]

Get off my lawn.

 

[JungRebel]

What is a decision anyway? Seems to be plenty of inhuman things making them on earth, even if they can't talk about them.

 

[DerHntr]

Other than effects on jobs, I wonder what effects full implementation of automated cars would have on things like culture in the US. A few things come to mind:

1. No more working on a car with your kid on the weekends (a lot of nostalgia there culturally)

2. No more mud riding

3. Would NASCAR have any followers if people didn't really know what it was like to drive a car in the first place and how hard it is to do it in those races?

4. Getting your "first car" wouldn't be a thing to discuss anymore

5. Teaching your kids to drive would stop

It's mostly silly stuff but interesting to consider.

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

Why do you say this? I recently spent some time with a couple driving from Maine to Miami in their Model S. They were having a blast with no problems at all. I live a mile from a Supercharger station and every time I go by there most of the plates are out of state. The car can tell you when it needs a charge and where to go to charge it.

That's well and good. But I'm talking about rural America. I've been up and down highway 7& between Memphis and Birmingham and there are no Supercharger stations I've seen. 45 between Jackson TN and Mobile have none as far as I know. Any in Arkansas at regular intervals? Oklahoma? Nebraska? I mean I'm not sure. If they are there I retract my statement. All I know is I can fully charge my G37 in 2 minutes tops. How long does it take to fully charge a model S?

 

[mstateglfr]

I don't think bikers really play into it. Hell, a self-driving car is probably way less likely to injure a biker, because they won't be pissed that some jackass is peddling his bike 20 mph on a recreational ride on a road with a 55 mph speed limit that other people are using to actually get to places like jobs.

Yeah, I meant cycling in a more congested area like a city center where there is a lot of pedestrian activity as well as cyclists changing lanes.

In your rural country highway example, yes it would be safer to have an auto car as the car wont get emotionally angry at having to follow the law and share the road, so there would be no dangerously close buzzing of cyclists.

I do like that you managed to respond to the point and while knowing the law, still get a dig in at those darn jackasses who are keeping people from getting to their jobs. Yeah, cuz the trucks pulling boats on a Saturday morning are all trying to get to their jobs.
The reason for using a road is irrelevant. Using it for work, pleasure, transport to family, or transport to recreation- the reason has no bearing.

 

[ShrubDog]

No doubt. One quick way to become an angry old man is to hate everything new and decide everyone else is an idiot. A lot of folks missing out on some pretty awesome stuff going on.

Spread the news what are folks missing out on?

 

[Hoover Dawg]

Everybody thought drones were going to take over the world too. I mean, if we can fly drones around, why can't humans just jump in one and take off? Never happened, because they are damned expensive. Oh, we are going to use them to have meetings, check on projects, etc. FART.

Again I say. Automation will NEVER override human interaction ie relationships. You can't reproduce a human being. Scientists have been trying for years and will continue to waste that money.

 

[ShrubDog]

http://www.kurzweilai.net

 

[patdog]

There are charging stations in Memphis & Birmingham, not between. Only charging stations in MS are in Pearl and Meridian. Biggest issue with travelling is the charging time. Bulldog31 may have ridden from Maine to Florida, but according to Tesla's website, their superchargers charge at a rate of 170 miles of range in 30 minutes. So, every 2-1/2 hours or so, you're going to have to stop for a half hour.

 

[coach66]

We are in the first inning with drones, stay tuned.

nm

 

[MississippiHeavyMetalDog]

If you think that your car doesn't get used much, you should buy a boat.

 

[garndawg]

There are charging stations in Memphis & Birmingham, not between. Only charging stations in MS are in Pearl and Meridian. Biggest issue with travelling is the charging time. Bulldog31 may have ridden from Maine to Florida, but according to Tesla's website, their superchargers charge at a rate of 170 miles of range in 30 minutes. So, every 2-1/2 hours or so, you're going to have to stop for a half hour.

This is the biggest issue with electric cars, and the reason why I believe an all-electric is never going to be a final option. I take 500+ mile roadtrips on a regular basis. That 8.5 hrs of windshield time just became almost 12 hrs on an all-electric chassis. Diesel-Electric, I think, makes much more sense. Especially for trucking.

As for automation, you have to deal with the trust issue. We've had the tech for years to fully-automate aircraft, takeoff to landing. The Navy actually uses a hands-free carrier takeoff for the F/A-18 and has for years.

So why would you, personally, not want to step into an airliner with no pilot in the cockpit? CAT III+ ILS, the hardest part, we've been able to do for decades.

To my mind, no one will want to submit themselves completely to a free-rein automation. Hence the major headlines anytime an 'autopilot' is suspected in an accident, much less a fatality.

It's similar to the tax reform argument, to my mind. Everyone agrees that the current system sucks, everyone agrees a total replacement with a more <allegedly> efficient system should happen. But no one really wants to throw the switch from one system to the other, only finding out _after_ the switch what pitfalls exist that were unforeseen.

I see diesel-electric powertrains and automated cruise control being adopted. Driverless and all-electric just aren't viable for a 100% solution.

One caveat: I could easily see driverless trucking in the near future. Especially with regulations (right hand lane only, time of day limitations, etc).

 

[FQDawg]

Exact reason I don't have one

have a friend who bought one a few years ago. We went out on it about every other weekend the first summer he had it. By the second summer, he said he used maybe six times. Last year, he said he went out on it once.

 

[seshomoru]

This is exactly what I think is coming. There will be companies you basically pay a monthly fee to that has fleets of self driving cars. Sort of like if Hertz and Uber merged or something.

 

[dorndawg]

Everybody thought drones computers were going to take over the world too. I mean, if we can fly drones around if we can just go online, why can't humans just jump in one and take off pull a computer out of their pocket? Never happened, because they are damned expensive. Oh, we are going to use them to have meetings, check on projects, etc. FART.

 

[Hoover Dawg]

Bad analogy. When an iphone can transport people, get back to me.

Try again.

 

[dorndawg]

Sorry it went over your head. I'll try to simplify things moving forward.

 

[Hoover Dawg]

No, it won't be that easy for you. Don't just tuck tail and run. Explain to me how software getting smaller and working over a signal, is going to help transport actual human beings, with mass that cannot be compressed, and fuel to lift that mass, running in short supply.

Better call this guy huh:

View attachment 6029

 

[Bcash2]

I don't think that's true at all...

It's a lot further off from working than people realize. All the "successes" now are on closed routes in ideal conditions. They expect you'll have to continuously "monitor conditions" so that you can take over on a moments notice if necessary....so what's the point?

There are tons of videos out there of Teslas (and other brands) driving in traffic and dealing fine with unforeseen conditions. Check out this comapany called Comma.ai. They are building systems that will allow your new-ish car to be converted to self-driving and even his models are driving themselves in real-world situations.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/aaronti...i-poaches-senior-tesla-engineer/#6b7c3217567e

 

[dorndawg]

Dunning–Kruger effect is real, yall.

 

[Hoover Dawg]

I like Trump, too.

 

[dorndawg]

You don't say*

 

[ShrubDog]

The plan is probably to be 100% emissions free once this automation revolution starts. That would effect retro fitting older cars.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Spread the news what are folks missing out on?

Seedless watermelons, flavored moonshine, and crotchless panties.

 

[Hoover Dawg]

Still mad, bro?

View attachment 6030

 

[Bulldog Bruce]

iRobot

Insurance/liability. When it is generally/legally accepted that self-driving cars are safer, car insurance companies will raise rates significantly for those not using self-driving cars, or won't cover accidents occurring when the driver is handling the car manually.

Or it's even possible the government will step in. I imagine every state has seat-belt laws now to protect the people from themselves (and the public from absorbing medical costs from those not wearing seat belts), so it's not a stretch to think the government may mandate self-driving cars in new manufacturing. As the software is perfected and the required devices scale up production, it won't be that expensive to add to even cheap new cars. Retrofitting current cars would likely be difficult/expensive, so it would probably have to be phased in.

This is what I was thinking while reading the thread. This is absolutely what will happen. All these safety things that are on cars now were options at one time and have become mandatory for safety issues. Once they are on the road and actually working, humans will not be allowed to drive.


However something that needs to be thought about is that the automobile is one of the few things that help keep the herd culled. I read the book Inferno and looked at some research and there is going to be a tipping point with the population at some time in the future. We keep curing diseases, enabling the population to live longer and if we make automobile travel so safe that there are very few deaths we will hit that point even quicker.

 

[VillagepeopleDogs]

Does this mean that I have to quit having long drawn out farts to be 100% emissions free? Or am I being obtuse?