I used to have power failures in thunderstorms despite having below-ground utilities. Fortunately the problem has been fixed by PSE &G; at least it doesn't happen any more.
OT: Potential Winter Storm on 3/7-8
- Thread starter RU848789
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You know seeing the mounds of snow in some parking lots it does seem like the guys mentioning 10, 12, 14 inches in SB seem correct too. I live in SB too and for me just eyeballing it seemed like 6-7 maybe 8. Not much was accumulating/sticking even though snowing moderately off and on until that 3-5pm time frame where everything happened damage/snow. I'm wondering if you guys had more stick/accumulate during the initial stages where I didn't. I'm not sure why that would happen though with such disparity living in the same town though. Maybe bac's heat bubble was above us lol. Must've been over the spotter too because he got only 4.
The ConEd substation explosion was a 1 off during a major storm. Sandy didn't really effect us uptown especially west of 2nd Ave where a lot of the area is elevated. Last time I can remember losing power here in NYC was 2003.
In Jersey City we have above-ground power lines, but still, we haven't lost power since PSEG turned it off when Sandy flooded the substation. Actually, there was a time in 2014 a raccoon fried itself at the same substation and we lost power for a couple of hours.
Yeah, that makes sense. And ditto on the 2003 brownout.
I remember as a kid, losing power at our Brighton Beach apartment way back in the late 1990's. But that was due to a lightning strike on the building.
if you look at that last map you can see 19" posted right in the middle of some 10-12" and smaller amounts in a circle around it..amazing. Just below bridgewater and southwest of Edison...which looks a lot like Franklin Park and parts of SB.
I grew up next to the original Crossroads and then on Deans Lane...class of '77.
yes...and definitely more like 10 down the valley in Hillsborough, Somerville, Raritan and more like 7 on the paved surfaces
Ok..but that plot looks like it is up rt. 1 from Princeton , 295/95 intersection and not the woods west of rocky hill. So I guess the map isn't perfect.
On that map, Sourland Mountain would be just a tiny bit north and west of the top of the "1" in "19.0". Might have been moved down slightly to leave space between it and the "12.0" over Manville (just below the Bridgewater label)
SBPD on a nixle update stated 19 inches fell. Wow definitely didn't get anything near that or even 1/2. My house must be outside the snow globe whew.
http://nixle.us/9YXGT
http://nixle.us/9YXGT
Same here in New Providence.
I live right behind the Murray Hill train station. Lost power around 530pm Wednesday.
Funny thing, neighbor two houses down (and everyone else that direction) has power.
Not sure how much snow exactly but it is a lot. Trees and branches down everywhere.
Possibility of another Nor'easter. Nowhere near as much of a sure thing as the past 2.
models are literally all over the place and timing seems to be moving toward Monday Night
Heading into Sunday night and beyond, attention turns to the next
potential coastal storm system as another low develops over the
south and moves northeast off the coast Sunday night into
Monday and Monday night. At this point, there remains a lot of
uncertainty regarding this system`s intensity and track and its
resultant impacts over the area. The latest GFS has trended
weaker and farther south/east suggesting less impacts over the
area while the ECMWF has trended farther north but is slower
with timing. The GEM Global remains the middle ground and has
been fairly consistent tracking the storm northeast from Cape
Hatteras east of the coastal waters brushing S/E parts of the
forecast area with at least some precipitation. Temps should be
cold enough aloft for snow but surface temperatures will be
marginal once again so precipitation type a challenge as well.
This all said, forecast confidence low with the storm at the
very least too close for comfort. The time frame for concern is
again Sunday night through Monday, possibly into Monday night,
and based on latest trends did expand likely POPs for rain/snow
from the southern Delmarva NE along the southern NJ coast as
storm should be close enough for at least some precip here.
Important to note, we often see forecast models trend north and
west with a storm a couple days before impact and if this were
to happen in this case, precip would be heavier and expand
farther north/west with accumulating snow possible along the
I-95 corridor. Again, too close to call right now. This will
hinge on how strong the high to our north is and how quickly it
breaks down and this should becoming clearer with subsequent
forecast updates through the weekend.
potential coastal storm system as another low develops over the
south and moves northeast off the coast Sunday night into
Monday and Monday night. At this point, there remains a lot of
uncertainty regarding this system`s intensity and track and its
resultant impacts over the area. The latest GFS has trended
weaker and farther south/east suggesting less impacts over the
area while the ECMWF has trended farther north but is slower
with timing. The GEM Global remains the middle ground and has
been fairly consistent tracking the storm northeast from Cape
Hatteras east of the coastal waters brushing S/E parts of the
forecast area with at least some precipitation. Temps should be
cold enough aloft for snow but surface temperatures will be
marginal once again so precipitation type a challenge as well.
This all said, forecast confidence low with the storm at the
very least too close for comfort. The time frame for concern is
again Sunday night through Monday, possibly into Monday night,
and based on latest trends did expand likely POPs for rain/snow
from the southern Delmarva NE along the southern NJ coast as
storm should be close enough for at least some precip here.
Important to note, we often see forecast models trend north and
west with a storm a couple days before impact and if this were
to happen in this case, precip would be heavier and expand
farther north/west with accumulating snow possible along the
I-95 corridor. Again, too close to call right now. This will
hinge on how strong the high to our north is and how quickly it
breaks down and this should becoming clearer with subsequent
forecast updates through the weekend.
Was just about to post this. What they don't mention is that the UK is a modest snowstorm for most, especially at the coast (although we may have mixing/melting issues again, as much of the precip would fall during the day), and that the RGEM (Canadian version of the NAM, a mesoscale model) is a big snowstorm for everyone. And that the NAM is likely out to sea.
Botttom line is this still needs watching and could be a substantial storm, although it could easily be a whiff (more likely a whiff, just based on models, but the pattern is still very favorable, which may mean the models aren't catching up to the potential yet but will). My thought would be to start a thread late tonight if some of the models still show a minor to major hit.
Eh, nothing special, just some burgers. But was drinking some Johnnie Walker Green while doing so! Note the glass.
Did you get a free bowl of soup with that shirt??Sheeze, ya can't let that stop ya!
My back yard is Union Ave near the top of the hill...just above the huge house in Murray Hills Farms...no power since Wednesday evening.
Same here....(I'm down the hill near Kline blvd). Have generator going...plugged in cable box and it was working!!!! TV and WiFi!!!!
Consensus from 00Z model runs is generally out to sea, but only 100-200 miles from being a significant storm, and the UK (2nd best model) does show a modest hit for our area, and we've seen several storms this winter at this timeframe (~72 hours out - looking like a Monday into Tuesday storm) shift NW in track over the last 72 hours and end up being hits for us.
So same bottom line - not worth sending out the Bat-Signal yet, but this one still has some potential to hit us (as model errors are at least +/-150 miles at 72 hours) and therefore bears watching. Plus, the northern jet stream energy is still in the Pacific, off the coast of BC, meaning it's not being well-sampled data-wise, which only increases model inaccuracy at this point.
Also, the 6Z models are in and the GFS is a near miss (100-150 miles from the benchmark), the NAM is way out to sea, and the RDPS (Canadian mesoscale version of the 12 km NAM) is a modest hit for 95/coast, i.e., there's still potential there, but obviously not an imminent threat.
Edit: just saw the NWS discussion, below. They're a bit more optimistic for this storm than I am, so I think it's thread time, even if it ends up being a miss, which is more likely than a hit, plus this way I don't incur the wrath of he who shall not be named, lol.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
412 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 mb: The interactions of two digging short waves in central North
America Monday will ultimate determine our snowfall potential. The
lead short wave in Missouri midday Sunday, is modeled by the GEFS to
sharpen as it crosses the Carolinas on Monday. Meanwhile a meager
looking short wave over central Canada on Sunday amplifies
southeastward and negative tilted, heading into the Great
Lakes region Monday evening, then either ejecting the Carolinas
short wave east northeast out to sea, or absorbing it into what
should be a large closed low over NYS-New England on Tuesday.
That closed low then weakens eastward off the east coast by
Friday night with ridging to follow next weekend.
I dont think the models are cohesive here. The NAM is late to
the table on this one but am expecting much more NAM development
by this time tomorrow. For now its trying to set up an inverted
trough for Tuesday as our primary snow event. The UKMET was my
favored model since its been consistent for two cycles, and
closer to the coast, which is what I expect again this winter
with this upcoming system (SST`s offshore still above normal).
The GFS UK ECMWF all seem to be onto the rapid intensification.
That said, forecast uncertainty continues and haven`t said too
much yet about what may happen.
Monday...Cloudy. Snow or rain/snow mix changing to snow as the
boundary layer temp cools, all this to the southeast of PHL.
Amts and northwest extent yet tbd.
Last edited:
Shifted my base of operations to the shore until power comes back. Generic statement from JCP&L says Wednesday, but I'll believe it when I see it. Even the treaffic light @ Zita's is being run on a generator.
Depends on where in South Brunswick you live. I commute 522 from rt1 thru Jamesburg. I had about 10 inches near rt1, and about 4 inches by 3pm. As I crossed rt130, the amount of snow on the ground was noticeably less. At my store in Monroe, a distance of 10 miles, there was about 4 inches. In many storms, it seems like rt130 is the line.
Hopefully we won't get rain and snow. Almost slid off a ravine going up an uphill drive that must be 1/8 mile long. Memo...need a v-plow for that one next time. Just to heavy for a straight plow. I wouldn't mind one more 3 inch fluffy snow before spring work begins.
@jerzey devil @Rutgers1976
I'm on Sagamore just west of the MH station. Neighbors across the street back up to the train tracks.
There are a lot of trucks in town and it seems they are restoring power to the Salt Brook side of town first.
I'm hoping for power sometime tomorrow.
Someone on the NP facebook group just posted that power was back on on Union Ave.
Thanks....got the news from a neighbor. Now for the snow to melt and then we can clean up the trees. Would be nice if the town sent out a big chipper and gave us the mulch!
First, below is an updated version of the NE snowfall map and second is his graphic, which illustrates nicely the "problem" we had along most of the 95 corridor - that area of sinking air (subsidence) between the two major mesoscale snow bands meant we just got a fair amount less precip leading to a lot more initial melting before the heavier snows came and covered the surfaces and leading to simply less overall snow. Compound that with slightly warmer surface temps and worse snow/liquid ratios and less snow depth resulted (even though I'm pretty sure our 8.5" was the equivalent of 14-16" of 10:1 ratio snow - the sleet and rain also hurt).
As I said earlier, given the surface low track relatively close to the NJ coast, often, but nowhere near always, the best precip bands are 150-200 miles W/NW/N of the low and that was generally the case yesterday. Plus areas that far inland are further from the warmth of the ocean and usually at greater elevation than 95/coast, so they're less likely to get any rain/sleet and to have better ratios of snow to liquid. Add those things up and you get 16-24" under that death band instead of 4-10" for most of 95 +/-10 miles NW/SE of 95.
If the bands (and precip) had been evenly distributed, it would have been more like 12-18" instead of 16-24" for those that got that much and 8-12" instead of 4-10" for most of the 95 corridor, since inland areas are a bit cooler, so less melting, and would've had better ratios, too, plus no mixing, so that's why they were predicted to have more by the NWS. The problem is it's literally impossible to know where the heaviest bands are going to hit before a storm starts. The data and the models are simply not good enough for that and may never be due to the limitations of chaos theory in high energy systems.
Finally, below is the NWS map, which my wife thinks is nowhere near as pretty as Tomer's maps, but they do contain more detail, with selected accumulations, and easier to distinguish colors. And my one comment on NWS reports is that I know some are wrong, but if they get enough reports, those likely come out in the wash, at least in the graphs like the one above or the ones I'm posting below. And they always delete the reports from before a storm was over, as those are useless for total snowfall, especially when places were getting 2-3" per hour. And all you have to do is look at the raw data or the graphics to know how steep the gradient was in some locations, especially near that mega death band - it's very believable for places 5 miles apart to have 8" vs. 14" - just by me, we had 8.5" and Carteret and Perth Amboy, 5 miles away, reported 4" or so.
I like this final snowfall map from Rutgers more than the NWS map, since it contains numbers from all of NJ (and some nearby locations out of state) and it's just easier to read. Well done David Robinson (NJ State Climatologist - an acquaintance and a huge RU football fan). And, of course, it also contains the 10" in NB number, which I'm sure @Knightshift likes too, lol...
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