Better safe than sorry. Still possibly a significant rain/flood event here.
OT: Official Hurricane Irma Thread
- Thread starter RU4Real
- Start date
Irma's not a rainmaker. That will be the thing that saves the day, to some extent. Again, assuming the 18z GFS, purely for the sake of conjecture, you're talking about less than 3" total QPF in the TB area.
Thanks to all who post your analysis. When we have a significant weather event here in Florida, I look to your threads for your thorough, comprehensive discussion.
I know what you mean, but not everyone might. 4Real's point is that this is not going to be a major rainmaker (many tropical systems are), and has no chance to be anything like Harvey, since Irma will be moving relatively briskly through the SE US. This graphic shows well how the 7-day rainfall totals are not crazy high, even in eastern FL, which will get the most - nobody is even getting more than 7-8" and most areas will be getting <5", which is no more than parts of Florida get in some of those hellacious downpours over a couple of hours. Winds and storm surge might be catastrophic - flooding due to excessive rainfall will not be.
Hey - haven't seen you on the board in awhile. Best of luck in the storm and as 4Real said, things are trending your way on the Gulf Coast, although you still need to pay attention to the models for another 2 days or so.
And again, no major changes with the track or intensity forecast for Irma with the 11 pm NHC advisory, as the track was adjusted eastward just a smidgen. The only "changes" worth noting are i) since we're closer to the event, the cone has shrunk a bit around the projected center of the cone track (most likely track) up the east coast of Florida, again crushing Miami and Fort Lauderdale and the rest of the SE FL coast with Cat 4 winds (140+ mph) and major storm surge and ii) the 5-day forecast is now far enough out that it shows the projected most likely path riding up the east coast of FL until Irma makes another landfall in the Savannah area with Cat 2/3 winds (110+ mph).
The narrowing track cone means that Irma going up the Gulf coast of Florida is becoming less likely. In addition, Irma's projected track right along the Florida east coast, which is a catastrophic scenario, does mean that it wouldn't take much of a further eastward shift to nudge Irma 30-50 miles offshore, as happened with Matthew last year, which would greatly reduce impacts. The one certainty right now is that the Turks/Caicos and much of the Bahamas are in for the worst storm they've ever seen with winds over 160 mph for most of Irma's trip through the island chain.
The narrowing track cone means that Irma going up the Gulf coast of Florida is becoming less likely. In addition, Irma's projected track right along the Florida east coast, which is a catastrophic scenario, does mean that it wouldn't take much of a further eastward shift to nudge Irma 30-50 miles offshore, as happened with Matthew last year, which would greatly reduce impacts. The one certainty right now is that the Turks/Caicos and much of the Bahamas are in for the worst storm they've ever seen with winds over 160 mph for most of Irma's trip through the island chain.
This is the terrible reality part. Heartbreaking, near total destruction on Barbuda and the other Leeward Islands that took direct hits from Irma.This is Barbuda in the eye of Irma's 185 mph winds this morning. This pic captures so well the duality of the astonishing beauty and terrible reality of extreme storms like this.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/06/americas/hurricane-irma-caribbean-islands/index.html
My In-laws are in Largo right near the intercoastal not far for Indian Rocks Beach, and told us pretty much the same thing. Costco was out of water, every flight out of Tampa is booked solid except for a few flights that have a long layover in weird places like Cincinnati with a six hour wait for the connecting flight, stuff like that. My wife was supposed to fly down this weekend because her brother in Bradenton was having an engagement party, but that's obviously canceled. Wife and kids want to move to the area.
I'm hoping for that 30 to 50 mile nudge eastward. As I live a few hundred feet from the ocean in Boca Raton. Every update over the last day seams to nudge it east a little at a time.And again, no major changes with the track or intensity forecast for Irma with the 11 pm NHC advisory, as the track was adjusted eastward just a smidgen. The only "changes" worth noting are i) since we're closer to the event, the cone has shrunk a bit around the projected center of the cone track (most likely track) up the east coast of Florida, again crushing Miami and Fort Lauderdale and the rest of the SE FL coast with Cat 4 winds (140+ mph) and major storm surge and ii) the 5-day forecast is now far enough out that it shows the projected most likely path riding up the east coast of FL until Irma makes another landfall in the Savannah area with Cat 2/3 winds (110+ mph).
The narrowing track cone means that Irma going up the Gulf coast of Florida is becoming less likely. In addition, Irma's projected track right along the Florida east coast, which is a catastrophic scenario, does mean that it wouldn't take much of a further eastward shift to nudge Irma 30-50 miles offshore, as happened with Matthew last year, which would greatly reduce impacts. The one certainty right now is that the Turks/Caicos and much of the Bahamas are in for the worst storm they've ever seen with winds over 160 mph for most of Irma's trip through the island chain.
So, based on the latest projection above.. if Irma is south of Miami on Saturday.. is there any reason to think flights leaving Orlando Saturday morning will be affected?
Obviously we are concerned about the potential impacts on Florida, but the Bahama's look to be in a real bad spot.
I'm seeing 15-20 ft storm surge in that area? Combined with 12+ inches of rain, and the full brunt of the winds?
Barbuda was wrecked, but I don't think they had to deal with that combo.
I'm seeing 15-20 ft storm surge in that area? Combined with 12+ inches of rain, and the full brunt of the winds?
Barbuda was wrecked, but I don't think they had to deal with that combo.
From what I've seen Orlando will not be facing tropical storm winds on Sat morning. But maybe the winds will be enough to affect flights?
Prob best to chk with the air lines.
Barbuda saw the worst conditions anyone will see from this storm, for surge and wind; rain isn't as serious an issue for any location in Irma's path, as it's moving too quickly to dump much more than 10" on most places. Much of he Bahamas are going to get crushed by a Cat 5 hurricane, albeit a slightly weaker version than hit Barbuda as all of the forecasts predict 160-175 mph winds over the next 1-2 days with Irma weakening at least a little.
Still nudging east- but not as much change movement as of yesterday. Hoping for that 50 mile nudge off shore that #'s is talking about.
Well, we're now just about 72-84 hours from Irma reaching South Florida's latitude (by Saturday night or early Sunday) and the 0Z model suite continues with the idea of SE Florida being in the crosshairs, although there's enough variability there to leave some questions. The Euro maintains a similar solution as yesterday afternoon's 12Z run, with Irma slicing right up the SE FL coast, directly hitting Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm, etc.with a Cat 4 (at least at landfall; it'll weaken some by West Palm), then continuing right along the FL coast all the way to Georgia. This would be a catastrophic outcome for many on the SE FL coast and maybe the entire FL coast.
The UK hits South Florida at the SW bottom of the peninsula, then runs NE across Florida, back into the Atlantic, then hits the SC coast. Finally, the GFS and CMC both come close to Miami, but remain 20-50 miles offshore, possibly sparing SE FL the worst conditions, although that's so close that the eyewall may still hit the coast; the GFS then hits Myrtle Beach as a probably Cat 4, while the CMC hits around Wilmington, NC as a probable Cat 3/4. Every model shows Irma heding NW, eventually, once inland and dissipating somewhere in the Ohio Valley to maybe western PA. Impacts on the NJ area still look to be pretty minor.
My guess is the NHC probably doesn't change the track much - maybe a very slight nudge to the east at most, but still showing a direct hit on Miami, given that the Euro has now shown that twice in a row and let's face it, going against the Euro, the model with the best 3-4 day verification scores, by a lot, for Irma, to date, would not be smart. While a track along Florida's Gulf coast is looking a lot less likely, it still can't be discounted, given the track error at 3 days out; a track completely missing Florida by 50 miles or more is also still in play, although even that kind of track would still produce a landfall in the Carolinas - a complete miss out to sea is just about a dead idea.
Will add the updated 5 am NHC track later this morning and will add tonight's 11 pm track for now, as reference. By the way, Irma's winds have been reduced slightly, to 180 mph.
5:15 am edit - here's the updated 5 am track - very little change, as expected...
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The turn Sunday morning is critical - not much change in the projected track.
Very cool article on hurricane information/forecast sources on the internet, from the Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/...l?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/...l?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share
How to Follow Hurricane Irma-Read RU848789's and RU4Real's Posts On Scarlet Nation
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn SEPT. 6, 2017
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Wow-you guys are famous!:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
Seriously though, your and @RU4Real's updates are outstanding. Thank you.
The ocean Was absolutely flat yesterday in boca. Calm before the storm. We are hunkering down. Bottom line this is a dangerous storm but only deadly if you don't prepare and do something stupid. There is a huge difference between deadly and inconvenience as I've been through several storms since 1982. Let's not be hysterical, prepare and help your neighbor.
Live boca inlet cam >>> http://video-monitoring.com/beachcams/bocainlet/
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma
Live boca inlet cam >>> http://video-monitoring.com/beachcams/bocainlet/
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma
My best friend lives in Coral Springs, a little north of Fort Lauderdale. She's prepared, but very concerned. We tried to find flights out for her and her 2 kids on Monday, but nothing available, leaving from almost anywhere in Florida, and coming anywhere up here -- Newark, AC, Philly, NY -- no flights.
I was wondering this as well. What do you do to prepare for 140mph winds a 20ft storm surge other than get the **** out of the way?
I guess it depends on how far inland she is, but damn I would be gone already.
A lot of it depends on where you're sheltering. Florida has pretty strict building codes in hurricane-prone areas so depending on the age of the building it may very well be survivable, albeit with some amount of damage. It's doubtful that Cape Coral would see flooding from surge, being several miles from the ocean - and backed up against the Everglades, which would drain any flooding pretty quickly.
Plus, those are things you can't really control. So prep should be mostly about how you survive for days (or weeks) after the fact with no power, maybe no running water and being more exposed to the elements than you might be accustomed.
Seriously, this is one of the most interesting and informative (as well as scary) threads I've ever seen on SN.
Why rule out leaving Florida if you can't fly into the north east? Fly into Oklahoma & find a Motel 6 if you have to; getting away from the storm is the important part. Trek to NY for a long term stay later, if needed.
Watching TWC it sounds like the storm surge and rain totals are significantly higher over the Bahamas and Turks then they were/will be in any other area.
Perhaps that is lack of clarity in their presentation?
Does seem like Barbuda caught the wind's at their worst, which Bahama's may not.\
Edit: Noaa saying 20"s of rain possible in parts of the Bahamas.
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Just book any flight to anywhere to any state with Jetblue or whatever. And have them stay at a cheap hotel. They can always get another flight to NJ later. The important thing is to just get the hell out of there.
Hurricane shutters. Water. Gas for the generator, etc. because as of a few days ago, bottled water was hard to come by. She has friends and family in NJ, and with two small children, she'd rather be with people she's familiar with than in the middle of Oklahoma. That's why she doesn't go just anywhere.
Scarlet Nation is honestly my best source for weather information. Thanks guys for all that you do.
Because this hurricane has been so difficult to forecast, they'll be a short window for those who haven't yet evacuated. If the projected path holds (Miami), many on the Atlantic coast could evacuate across the peninsula to the Gulf Coast and ride out a much weaker storm over there. However, the roads across the Everglades (I-41 and I-75) are likely to be parking lots.
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these approaching storms are always a tough call for south florida residents..... they get a lot of false alarm storms, so they don't book flights a good amount of time in advance..... then, if it looks like it is going to hit, you can't drive like 150 miles west, like you could up here...... it is hard to get out of the way of it.
I think they haven't wanted to say with certainty where this thing will go, but it has stuck to the predicted path pretty dang closely.
This is horrible for Florida. I have family/friends and many experiences down there. Definitely can't wait til this storm is gone and praying for all those down there and with their homes, businesses, and belongings. Just horrible.