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OT: Official Hurricane Irma Thread

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RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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Winds up to 180 mph - Irma is now the strongest hurricane in history, in the open Atlantic Ocean (i.e., not in the Caribbean or Gulf). Wow.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/051446.shtml?

A peak SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.

And updated track...taking the storm almost directly over Key West as a 145-150 mph strong Cat 4 hurricane at 120 hours.

 
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RU4Real

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Jul 25, 2001
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Looking back about 6 days, it's safe to say I had a feeling about this one...

This storm is one for the record books. Sadly, that's really bad news for a lot of people in its path.
 
M

MoobyCow

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Nov 28, 2001
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RU848789 said:
Winds up to 180 mph - Irma is now the strongest hurricane in history, in the open Atlantic Ocean (i.e., not in the Caribbean or Gulf). Wow.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/051446.shtml?

A peak SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.
Click to expand...

Crap.
 
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RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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And, to add insult to injury, TS Jose just formed 500+ miles behind Irma. It's expected to become a hurricane, but to stay safely out to sea east of Bermuda. We may also have to deal with another tropical storm in the SW Gulf of Mexico, which could bring more rain, eventually, to SE Texas, although it's not supposed to be a hurricane or a major storm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

 
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RU848789

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RU4Real said:
Looking back about 6 days, it's safe to say I had a feeling about this one...

This storm is one for the record books. Sadly, that's really bad news for a lot of people in its path.
Click to expand...

We've definitely been pretty well aligned on this one - your first post in this thread was pretty similar to my post at the end of the Harvey thread. You could just tell when it started blowing up last Wednesday that this one could be a big one given the favorable conditions and long range models.

Unfortunately, "historic" is going to end up being catastrophic for many - still hoping for that earlier than expected north and then NE turn to keep it off the Florida east coast. That's the only solution that doesn't have huge US impacts (outside of an unexpected big dip south through Hispaniola and Cuba, which could shred the storm).

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...-for-many-in-texas.127175/page-3#post-2859687
 
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RU4Real

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Jul 25, 2001
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As I typically think about these things from the perspective of the ocean, it occurred to me this morning that Irma's track with respect to the Gulf Stream could be especially problematic for the Keys.

The Gulf Stream transits the Florida Strait at speeds averaging 4 mph. If Irma's track verifies closer to the GFS solution then the current and wind will be directly opposed for a significant period of time.

Sailors can describe, from experience, what happens when long-fetch, high velocity winds oppose a strong current. The result is huge, breaking waves. It would not surprise me to see waves of 50 - 60 feet between Cuba and Florida by Saturday. The resulting swell will begin impacting the Keys well before the strongest winds get there.
 
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RUScrew85

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GoodOl'Rutgers said:
Beware Irma!

seriously.. seeing the Houston cleanup going on.. houses still underwater and this monster on the way.. I worry for the keys.. how big is the storm surge if it doesn't hit Cuba on the way? Will those keys just be completely underwater?

OMG.. that animated gif of the storm above had loaded in another window and I just saw it.. wow. That is some tight rotation. Where does the ocean end and the clouds begin? How tall is that wall inside the eye?
Click to expand...

I've heard Houston is known to drain very slowly - it's pretty flat around there. I don't think the same thing holds for the Keys.

I was in Key West last winter - I'd hate to see what a big hurricane can do to those little islands. But some of those clubs could use a good washing out...
 
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GoodOl'Rutgers

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RU848789 said:
Interesting article on how good the Euro did with Harvey vs. all the other models. It's a little sad we can't do better in the US - lack of funding...

https://arstechnica.com/science/201...arvey-the-european-model-outperformed-humans/
Click to expand...

"lack of funding?"

did you get that from this:

"The European model is the best forecasting system in the world for several reasons, most notably because the European modeling center has invested heavily in their model. It has the most advanced computer hardware and has devised the best system to assimilate real-time meteorological observations into its model for future runs. This means the model runs start with the most accurate initial conditions."​

I wonder how much of the data the EURO uses comes from sources paid for with US dollars.
 
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RU4Real

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Jul 25, 2001
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The 5PM NHC update keeps Irma at Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. Irma is now tied for the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on record. The storm is currently approaching the northern Leeward Islands and Anguilla looks to be very much in its crosshairs, with conditions beginning to deteriorate at this time.

The track of the storm in the 120 hour range is still very much in the air with respect to any interaction with the northern coast of Cuba and Irma's turn to the north, expected to occur very near the Florida Keys.
 
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RU4Real

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FELONIOUSMONK said:
50-60 foot breakers? Gnarly dudes. !@!Thanks Mr Spicoli
Click to expand...

It's not something you ever want to see from up close.

The mechanics that will generate large, breaking seas in the Florida Strait are the same as those typically at work in the Southern Ocean near Cape Horn and the Cape of Good Hope. In those locations it's not unheard of to encounter hurricane force winds driving seas as high as 100 feet.
 
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kapyoche

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This storm is going to create panic coming after Harvey.

I am sure NJ grocery stores are going to run out of bread, milk, beer and condoms by tomorrow.
 
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RU4Real

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Jul 25, 2001
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kapyoche said:
This storm is going to create panic coming after Harvey.

I am sure NJ grocery stores are going to run out of bread, milk, beer and condoms by tomorrow.
Click to expand...

This storm isn't coming anywhere near NJ. You should try and do something other than troll this site.
 
A

AreYouNUTS

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Aug 1, 2001
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RU4Real said:
It's not something you ever want to see from up close.

The mechanics that will generate large, breaking seas in the Florida Strait are the same as those typically at work in the Southern Ocean near Cape Horn and the Cape of Good Hope. In those locations it's not unheard of to encounter hurricane force winds driving seas as high as 100 feet.
Click to expand...

My cousin's husband is the captain of a cargo ship that goes from Greece to Australia (Melbourne) and back, IIRC, 4 times yearly. He's told my dad about these types of seas, and how they have to make the decision as to which route to take after they sweep around the west coast of Africa (I guess Senegal/Sierra Leone region) - which "Cape" to navigate - and that sometimes they just have to sit there for a while (see: weeks) waiting for the seas to "calm" a tad at one cape or the other before moving along.
 
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AreYouNUTS

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RU4Real said:
The 5PM NHC update keeps Irma at Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. Irma is now tied for the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on record. The storm is currently approaching the northern Leeward Islands and Anguilla looks to be very much in its crosshairs, with conditions beginning to deteriorate at this time.

The track of the storm in the 120 hour range is still very much in the air with respect to any interaction with the northern coast of Cuba and Irma's turn to the north, expected to occur very near the Florida Keys.
Click to expand...

My good friend (LSU via RU via York via East Brunswick) and his family are clearing out (Key West) as we speak. They'll be off the island by 10'ish tonight.
 
29PAS

29PAS

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If Irma takes the path toward the GA/SC coast, any rough idea on when it would get there (Charleston/Savannah area)? I'm thinking it speeds up some after the northward turn because of the high pressure system off the east coast. Would that put it in the Charleston area sometime Tuesday?

TIA
 
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Armor and Sword

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RU4Real said:
It's not something you ever want to see from up close.

The mechanics that will generate large, breaking seas in the Florida Strait are the same as those typically at work in the Southern Ocean near Cape Horn and the Cape of Good Hope. In those locations it's not unheard of to encounter hurricane force winds driving seas as high as 100 feet.
Click to expand...

A former co-worker visited Antarctica back in January via the Drake Passage voyage. The trip to "the ice" wasn't so bad, but the return trip had the nasty seas.
 
R

RU848789

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RU4Real said:
If I were going to roll the dice right now, I'd say Naples avoids calamity as Irma turns early. But it's definitely too soon to tell.
Click to expand...

We agree again. We might have to stop doing this, lol. My gut, simply based on decades of watching major hurricanes that seem to go NE of the 5-day forecast more often than not (and I don't have data on that - just my memory - will likely ask that question on American, as I'm sure someone like Don Sutherland would actually be able to answer that question), is that Irma tends to go more towards the east coast of Florida than the west coast of Florida, i.e., NE of the NHC track. But yeah, way too soon to tell. That's part of the problem - if you live in South or even Central Florida, where the eff do you evacuate to, other than maybe Georgia? Or California...if you can avoid the wildfires, lol.

By the way, since a ton of people are reading this thread, expect some serious t-storms this evening in NJ. Big storms, winds and rain with a severe t-storm warnings and watches up, especially for eastern PA and western NJ.
 
R

RU4Real

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Jul 25, 2001
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Armor and Sword said:
A former co-worker visited Antarctica back in January via the Drake Passage voyage. The trip to "the ice" wasn't so bad, but the return trip had the nasty seas.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the circumnavigators (sailboats) who run the Horn fall into two camps - those who run the Drake (which is more or less an inland passage) and those who want the full experience and take the rounding offshore. If you're going east to west, from the Atlantic into the Pacific, it's not unusual to wait for days (or weeks) for conditions to improve because it's sometimes simply impossible to sail through.
 
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RU4Real

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RU848789 said:
We agree again. We might have to stop doing this, lol. My gut, simply based on decades of watching major hurricanes that seem to go NE of the 5-day forecast more often than not (and I don't have data on that - just my memory - will likely ask that question on American, as I'm sure someone like Don Sutherland would actually be able to answer that question), is that Irma tends to go more towards the east coast of Florida than the west coast of Florida, i.e., NE of the NHC track. But yeah, way too soon to tell. That's part of the problem - if you live in South or even Central Florida, where the eff do you evacuate to, other than maybe Georgia? Or California...if you can avoid the wildfires, lol.

By the way, since a ton of people are reading this thread, expect some serious t-storms this evening in NJ. Big storms, winds and rain with a severe t-storm warnings and watches up, especially for eastern PA and western NJ.
Click to expand...

So about that 18Z GFS... lol
 
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RU5781

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RU4Real said:
RU848789 said:
We agree again. We might have to stop doing this, lol. My gut, simply based on decades of watching major hurricanes that seem to go NE of the 5-day forecast more often than not (and I don't have data on that - just my memory - will likely ask that question on American, as I'm sure someone like Don Sutherland would actually be able to answer that question), is that Irma tends to go more towards the east coast of Florida than the west coast of Florida, i.e., NE of the NHC track. But yeah, way too soon to tell. That's part of the problem - if you live in South or even Central Florida, where the eff do you evacuate to, other than maybe Georgia? Or California...if you can avoid the wildfires, lol.

By the way, since a ton of people are reading this thread, expect some serious t-storms this evening in NJ. Big storms, winds and rain with a severe t-storm warnings and watches up, especially for eastern PA and western NJ.
Click to expand...

So about that 18Z GFS... lol
Click to expand...

Do tell...
 
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RU4Real

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RU5781 said:
Do tell...
Click to expand...

The 18z GFS pulled a fairly significant shift from prior runs, turning Irma northward early enough to roll through the Bahamas, miss Florida entirely and landfall on the SC/NC border.

It's one run of one model and while it's within the overall guidance envelope established by the ensemble members, it's going to require some support from additional runs of both the GFS and the Euro to be taken seriously.
 
R

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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RU4Real said:
If I were going to roll the dice right now, I'd say Naples avoids calamity as Irma turns early. But it's definitely too soon to tell.
Click to expand...

RU848789 said:
We agree again. We might have to stop doing this, lol. My gut, simply based on decades of watching major hurricanes that seem to go NE of the 5-day forecast more often than not (and I don't have data on that - just my memory - will likely ask that question on American, as I'm sure someone like Don Sutherland would actually be able to answer that question), is that Irma tends to go more towards the east coast of Florida than the west coast of Florida, i.e., NE of the NHC track. But yeah, way too soon to tell. That's part of the problem - if you live in South or even Central Florida, where the eff do you evacuate to, other than maybe Georgia? Or California...if you can avoid the wildfires, lol.

By the way, since a ton of people are reading this thread, expect some serious t-storms this evening in NJ. Big storms, winds and rain with a severe t-storm warnings and watches up, especially for eastern PA and western NJ.
Click to expand...

And the 18Z GFS which just came out is showing Irma going a bit NE of the NHC track, coming close to Miami and much of the FL coast, but not actually making landfall on the US east coast until about Wilmington, NC. If that solution is still on the table, I still have to believe out-to-sea is on the table. Will be interesting to see if the GFS is seeing something "real" or not and if the 0Z models tonight (which run 6 hours after the 18Z GFS, which is one of the only major models that runs 4x/day) pick up on that and move to the NE.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017090518&fh=120
 
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RUaMoose_rivals

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RU4Real said:
This storm isn't coming anywhere near NJ. You should try and do something other than troll this site.
Click to expand...

Not sure about that. If she turns to the north early and goes up the east coast of FL and into the carolinas we could certainly see some action .Not cat 2, 3, 4, or 5 action but some significant wind and rain.
 
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RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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RUaMoose said:
Not sure about that. If she turns to the north early and goes up the east coast of FL and into the carolinas we could certainly see some action .Not cat 2, 3, 4, or 5 action but some significant wind and rain.
Click to expand...
He wasn't ruling out wind and rain from remnants or even a weak TS, he was ruling out Irene or Sandy scenarios, which is absolutely correct - no model is showing anything like that. Hard to say "impossible" but it's close to impossible right now.
 
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RUaMoose_rivals

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RU848789 said:
He wasn't ruling out wind and rain from remnants or even a weak TS, he was ruling out Irene or Sandy scenarios, which is absolutely correct - no model is showing anything like that. Hard to say "impossible" but it's close to impossible right now.
Click to expand...

Ok. I was talking about remnants which wouldn't be anything to sneeze at given this storm.
 
R

Retired711

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Nov 20, 2001
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RU4Real said:
Similar initial track, although it should be noted that Donna didn't "carve through" NYC.
Click to expand...
Was a nine-year old schoolkid when Donna hit NYC on the first day of school. Lots of wind and rain, but no major damage as far as I can recall. . I think the schools stayed open until noon, but I am not sure.
 
P

Proud NJ Sports Fan

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May 11, 2010
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RUaMoose said:
Not sure about that. If she turns to the north early and goes up the east coast of FL and into the carolinas we could certainly see some action .Not cat 2, 3, 4, or 5 action but some significant wind and rain.
Click to expand...

I have a feeling that Irma will hit NJ as at least a TS and possibly a hurricane
 
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RU4Real

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Jul 25, 2001
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RU848789 said:
He wasn't ruling out wind and rain from remnants or even a weak TS, he was ruling out Irene or Sandy scenarios, which is absolutely correct - no model is showing anything like that. Hard to say "impossible" but it's close to impossible right now.
Click to expand...

This.

Even if the 18z GFS were to verify, the track of the remnant low heads generally NW into the Ohio Valley before dissipating. Effects here from that scenario would be basically indiscernible from a typical rainy day.
 
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RU848789

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Really good write-up by DT/WxRisk, discussing many of the things we've been discussing in this thread, especially the part about how important it is to figure out when Irma makes that sharp turn to the north - as that will determine whether we see a track up the Florida Gulf Coast, up the spine of the peninsula or up the Florida East Coast (or even tracks further offshore of FL) - and it only takes a small deviation in the timing of that turn to make a huge impact in the eventual track.

https://www.wxrisk.com/cat-5-irma-will-turn-north-but-when/
 
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