I was looking at this site: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ and noticed that the 1200 UTC models moved west from those six hours prior. Should I be looking at any specific models of that set?
OT: Matthew Hurricane
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
It seems the 2pm update on WeatherUnderground show most models moving east. Sure hope this trend continues.
Yep. Model rebound continues, none of the 18z runs bring the storm within 100 miles of Sandy Hook.
We're still 5 days out and this is the sort of thing that happens. Go on with your lives, citizens.
I **** you not: the Euro was delayed for over an hour and now it shows landfall around West Palm Beach FL as a cat 3/4 storm and then it heads toward Savannah, then way out to sea, then back towards Ft. Lauderdale, across FL and into the Gulf. I wonder if this guy is in charge today...
Don't get me started. They're the reason we haven't had dunes since Sandy.
I'm still PO'd that one of them didn't put away his temporary walkway like most did prior to Sandy resulting in it going right thru my garage doors.
I **** you not: the Euro was delayed for over an hour and now it shows landfall around West Palm Beach FL as a cat 3/4 storm and then it heads toward Savannah, then way out to sea, then back towards Ft. Lauderdale, across FL and into the Gulf. I wonder if this guy is in charge today...
Holy crap, that's quite a major retrograde. Do any other models show this big loop-de-loop?
Great Airplane reference, btw.
Replenish away - as long as private beaches pay their own way and pay-beaches pay their own way.
Not at all - AmericanWx is in meltdown, lol - seriously, people are wondering if it's a bad run, which does happen on occasion.
The Euro run was delayed an hour, so there's some suspicion that maybe it broke.
It's definitely a very strange run.
Here we go. Utter nonsense. In most NJ coastal communities beach replenishment is done to maintain a recreation area open to everyone for a price. It's really not all that different than a park that charges to enter. If they didn't charge it would just be spread out in everyone in NJ's taxes so you'd be paying one way or another. I'd think someone like you would like the idea only those who actually use the beach pay.
The BAMM Model had it hitting mid Fla, going back out to sea around Jacksonville, and heading due east out to sea.
Or maybe some wanker in London spilled high tea on his keyboard?
Not good form old chap.
You know I live by you. Pour me a couple of drinks one night and we'll see about your neighbors garage doors, lol. Maybe we can change their minds about beach replenishment.
Ha. He sold and moved south. New guy tore down and built a McMansion. He also said "Hi, I'm your new neighbor" by snowblowing my driveway after the January storm. Think I'm gonna like this guy
even if the 12z suite models are correct and Matthew will turn out to sea, the devil is in the details about whether or not we seen any rain from him streamed up the coast or from the nearby trough. Thats going to be tough to pin down for a while because timing is totally up in the air
so we really will be unsure for awhile if tailgates and the game will be dry
so we really will be unsure for awhile if tailgates and the game will be dry
5 pm update is out and the NHC, as expected, is taking a very conservative approach to responding to the overwhelming model shift to the out to sea solution and only moved the track from about 90 miles off the NJ coast to about 160 miles off the NJ coast, instead of the 300+ miles off the coast seen in the models (which mostly don't even bring it to our latitude at all). I'm sure they want to see the runs tonight continue with the out to sea solution before biting on it, but they didn't say that. All they said is this, which is weak, IMO:
The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the
southward extension of the hurricane watch in Florida. Beyond 3
days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to
turn northward and then northeastward.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/041506.shtml?
However, the NWS-Philly said it very well as per below, i.e., actually discussing the divergent model output this afternoon. If we get the OTS solution, there would likely be minimal rain for the tailgates and game and maybe none. For now, let's see what happens with the storm as it goes through the Bahamas and possibly hits or scrapes FL and then SC/NC, before likely going out to sea, unless we see an historic reversal of the models just 4 days out.
One other point: it's possible somwhere between Fort Lauderdale and Daytona Beach sees a landfalling cat 4 hurricane, as it parallels the coast. This path would be the worst, as it would provide major impacts for hundreds of miles of coastline (with some weakening), instead of major impacts for a small area, then weakening a lot as it moves inland, as usually happens with a FL landfall. A tiny shift in the track has huge implications a 40-50 mile shift is the difference between 100+ mph winds at the coast vs. 50 mph winds.
Saturday and Sunday...
There continues to be high forecast uncertainty regarding the
track of Hurricane Matthew after it reaches the coastal Carolinas
on Saturday. There appears to be two distinct scenarios: 1)
Matthew tracks more northward Saturday night- Sunday. This western
edge of the track would occur if the upstream mid latitude trough
starts to catches up with the TC, allowing these systems to phase
and track closer to the coast. This track would produce the
greatest impacts to our region, including the potential for strong
winds near the coast, freshwater flooding and significant storm
surge. 2) Matthew tracks more eastward Saturday night-Sunday. A
sharper hook out to sea would occur if the interaction between the
TC and upstream trough is minimal. This track would equate to much
lesser impacts across the forecast area. Limited impacts would
mainly be confined to the coast, including enhanced rip currents,
minor beach erosion and possibly some tidal flooding.
The optimistic news is the 12Z model guidance has generally trended
toward the latter solution, indicating a sharper turn out to sea and
less impacts across the area. The 12Z ECMWF shift was dramatic,
keeping Matthew suppressed south of Charleston, SC. However, the
models have yet to show run-to-run consistency and there
continues to be moderate spread in the GEFS, so we cannot rule out
any of these two scenarios or somewhere in between.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the
southward extension of the hurricane watch in Florida. Beyond 3
days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to
turn northward and then northeastward.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/041506.shtml?
However, the NWS-Philly said it very well as per below, i.e., actually discussing the divergent model output this afternoon. If we get the OTS solution, there would likely be minimal rain for the tailgates and game and maybe none. For now, let's see what happens with the storm as it goes through the Bahamas and possibly hits or scrapes FL and then SC/NC, before likely going out to sea, unless we see an historic reversal of the models just 4 days out.
One other point: it's possible somwhere between Fort Lauderdale and Daytona Beach sees a landfalling cat 4 hurricane, as it parallels the coast. This path would be the worst, as it would provide major impacts for hundreds of miles of coastline (with some weakening), instead of major impacts for a small area, then weakening a lot as it moves inland, as usually happens with a FL landfall. A tiny shift in the track has huge implications a 40-50 mile shift is the difference between 100+ mph winds at the coast vs. 50 mph winds.
Saturday and Sunday...
There continues to be high forecast uncertainty regarding the
track of Hurricane Matthew after it reaches the coastal Carolinas
on Saturday. There appears to be two distinct scenarios: 1)
Matthew tracks more northward Saturday night- Sunday. This western
edge of the track would occur if the upstream mid latitude trough
starts to catches up with the TC, allowing these systems to phase
and track closer to the coast. This track would produce the
greatest impacts to our region, including the potential for strong
winds near the coast, freshwater flooding and significant storm
surge. 2) Matthew tracks more eastward Saturday night-Sunday. A
sharper hook out to sea would occur if the interaction between the
TC and upstream trough is minimal. This track would equate to much
lesser impacts across the forecast area. Limited impacts would
mainly be confined to the coast, including enhanced rip currents,
minor beach erosion and possibly some tidal flooding.
The optimistic news is the 12Z model guidance has generally trended
toward the latter solution, indicating a sharper turn out to sea and
less impacts across the area. The 12Z ECMWF shift was dramatic,
keeping Matthew suppressed south of Charleston, SC. However, the
models have yet to show run-to-run consistency and there
continues to be moderate spread in the GEFS, so we cannot rule out
any of these two scenarios or somewhere in between.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Based off what they did with our game at Maryland last year, they will.
They moved that game from 8p to noon even though it wasn't supposed to hit until Monday and that was before they even knew if it was going to at all (it didn't).
So we better hope it becomes obvious before Thursday that it's NOT going towards NJ or else they very well could.. The only possible saving grace is the game is on ESPN 2 while our Maryland game was originally for 8p on BTN. Might be harder to change time given the network.
lol, lol - I was just about to post that, for anyone who has been on the AmericanWx threads - very funny - for those who haven't the obscure LBAR model is a regional model that nobody uses, as it has no accuracy for tropical systems, but it's in that suite of models with the spaghetti plots - nobody knows why and it's been showing a path directly across FL and into the GOM for days and everyone just chuckles at it.
So the point stands out here: unless there is a major model shift back to a close call for us, there's no way in hell they're going to declare a State of Emergency in NJ or move our game, especially since they don't need to decide that for a couple of days and by then we'll have confirmation on the out to sea outcome. I'm about 98% sure it ain't coming within 200 miles of NJ and the worst we see is some showers, with maybe a little heavy rain Sunday after 1 or 2 am. Small chance this all changes, but it would have to change by tonight or tomorrow, as the model errors just aren't that large inside 3 days.
What could be more tough-mudder-esque than doing a tough mudder in a hurricane?
And are we allowed to have best friends that aren't Rutgers fans? [winking]
So would you say that now your call of 50% moderately heavy during tailgate, and 70% likely moderately heavy during the game, are no longer valid? Understanding, of course, we could still see a change in the next 24-hours. Thanks buddy!
C'moooon baby, blow out to sea. We deserve to catch a break!
Not quite what I said (see above), but not much change from what I said last night, since the models don't look much different from 2-8 pm Saturday than they do now - the big changes were after that. That would mean a chance of a few light showers before the game (probably only nuisance showers, i.e., <0.1" of rain), but with temps around 70F, hopefully a shower or two won't scare people and then a higher chance of some showers during the game (maybe 0.1-0.2" of rain). There should not be any wind issues or thunder/lightning. And I do think there's at least a 50% chance of a totally dry tailgate and mostly dry game. Need to see more model consistency before having confidence in an outcome. Unless the forecast improves hugely, a canopy would likely be in order for most.
Ughhhhhh.... Flying up to (EWR) NJ tomorrow thru Sunday. Coastal NC undergoing preliminary evacuations including UNC Wilmington. While we're well inland from the coast here in Pinehurst, Mrs. Pinehurst has lots of family in the Wilmington area. She's orchestrating an evac plan--caravan-style--for the whole clan, likely up I-40 toward Raleigh toward the "safety" of a hotel suite or three. So I slink away to RDU in the morning and she's bracing for Matthewgeddon. Does this seem ... wrong?
So our taxes should go to pay for the beach Jenkinsons charges the public to use? Do they still do that - it's been a while for me. That is utter nonsense. Public funds, MAYBE, should be used to replenish PUBLIC beaches. Private landowners should replenish their own beaches. Hell I don't think public beaches should be "replenished" because beaches don't disappear - they change and have been since the beginning of time. It's just a more of a waste of public money on private special interests.
Me thinks you are one of those Special Interests.
Say goodbye to all beaches in NJ if you think this way. The reason the wealthy don't want their private beaches to be replenished is because they would no longer be private. At least that is my understanding. Meanwhile, the beaches in certain parts of the state get smaller and smaller and the damage storms cause costs the state millions of dollars in flood damage. Have you been to Ortley Beach lately?
