OT: good retrospective article......

[Bill Shankly]

on the coronavirus response in the West. It should provoke thought no matter where you stand. It's long but well worth the read. Don't let the title put you off. If the mods want to lock it now that would be fine. I just wanted the folks who I've debated with to see it.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/03/how-the-west-lost-covid-19.html

 

[Xenomorph]

I just wanted the folks who I've debated with to see it.

Then why didn't you just send it directly to those lucky few?

 

[mstateglfr]

Ill read it thru the day, thanks for posting.

On a related note, variants are being pushed as threats to once again shut down towns/cities/regions due to how the mutations can work around antibodies and infect. If that plays out, I wonder how long it will be until tourist attractions in Chicago or LA for example are back to being at full capacity, so no distancing or masks. A few days ago while talking about changes to life, I had a memory of going up the Sears Tower(Willis now) in Chicago in that super fast elevator with a bunch of other people. That sort of thing- will it be back later this year? 3 years from now?

 

[Bill Shankly]

Then why didn't you just send it directly to those lucky few?

It's easier this way. You don't have to read it you know.

 

[57stratdawg]

Thanks for sharing. I'll keep reading, but this quote shouldn't be lost on people 1 year later:

"While the virus originated in China, but the true focus of the spread around the world came from northern Italy".

 

[Bill Shankly]

Ill read it thru the day, thanks for posting.

On a related note, variants are being pushed as threats to once again shut down towns/cities/regions due to how the mutations can work around antibodies and infect. If that plays out, I wonder how long it will be until tourist attractions in Chicago or LA for example are back to being at full capacity, so no distancing or masks. A few days ago while talking about changes to life, I had a memory of going up the Sears Tower(Willis now) in Chicago in that super fast elevator with a bunch of other people. That sort of thing- will it be back later this year? 3 years from now?

So far there don't seem to be wholesale cases of the variants re-infecting people. Most of the stuff you read about is in the lab.

 

[WilCoDawg]

If the fear-mongers have their way, we won’t ever be back to normal. They’ll push for us in the West to exist as Asians have for years which is wearing masks constantly while in public.
In your honest opinion, do you ever foresee things going back to normal? Given the CDC still pushes for masks after vaccination, the changes in the virus itself, and the fear people have of the virus, I don’t see a segment NOT existing without masks and going back to pre-2020 standards.
If you wear masks to protect others, then your logic will make you continue to wear masks no matter what: whether it’s SARS-CoV-19 or the common flu. If you can prevent spreading a virus that kills, you will continue to do so. If you’re intellectually honest, you will do this.
I’ve heard the push to “flatten the curve” and “if you can save ONE life” pushed so much. There is no light at the end of that tunnel.

 

[Mobile Bay]

Thanks for sharing. I'll keep reading, but this quote shouldn't be lost on people 1 year later:

"While the virus originated in China, but the true focus of the spread around the world came from northern Italy".

What happened there was Chinese New Year. There are a lot of Chinese owned and operated sweatshops in northern Italy. The workers all went home for new year, and then came back to Italy, infection the local population which trends toward older people.

 

[Bill Shankly]

What happened there was Chinese New Year. There are a lot of Chinese owned and operated sweatshops in northern Italy. The workers all went home for new year, and then came back to Italy, infection the local population which trends toward older people.

The real thing that happened is that along with the fact that Wuhan had more direct flights to Northern Italy than any other place. .

 

[Bill Shankly]

If the fear-mongers have their way, we won’t ever be back to normal. They’ll push for us in the West to exist as Asians have for years which is wearing masks constantly while in public.
In your honest opinion, do you ever foresee things going back to normal? Given the CDC still pushes for masks after vaccination, the changes in the virus itself, and the fear people have of the virus, I don’t see a segment NOT existing without masks and going back to pre-2020 standards.
If you wear masks to -rote that others, then your logic will make you continue to wear masks no matter what: whether it’s SARS-CoV-19 or the common flu. If you can prevent spreading a virus that kills, you will continue to do so. If you’re intellectually honest, you will do this.
I’ve heard the push to “flatten the curve” and “if you can save ONE life” pushed so much. There is no light at the end of that tunnel.

It depends on how well the vaccines work (and they seem to work very well) and perhaps even more importantly, how many actually take them.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Did you read the part where a decisive lockdown for 3 weeks very early on would've gotten it done? We had constant indecisiveness, combined with an election year and lots of pandering to the base, along with a huge swath of people who STILL think that being asked to wear a mask is akin to being invaded by land troops from the old USSR. Hand me 3 weeks of doing absolutely nothing and I'd take it.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

It depends on how well the vaccines work (and they seem to work very well) and perhaps even more importantly, how many actually take them.

You didn't address what he said. A lot of people still want masks and social distancing in public for the foreseeable future, including the CDC.

Here is a fact that I know at the end of the day - I did not get sick at all this year. Not once. I usually get 2-3 colds per year.

Another fact - I barely wore a mask, and only when absolutely mandated. But, I social distance myself naturally.

This tells me that I was still getting sick beforehand, and it obviously wasn't due to the weather. I was contracting it from other people. Not sure if the lack of sickness this year was due to the masks or if that was due to a bigger awareness of sickness in general and lesser crowds. I tend to think it was the second one. Don't get it twisted....masks DO help, just not to the point that I feel I need to wear one. Maybe some of these goobers who love to get up in people's spaces need to do it I guess, and it helps with some of these nasty mfer's breath too.

So, I honestly think I'm going to second guess doing any type of crowded stuff in the winter time from now on, in order to avoid flu and what not. Obviously Rona can infect at any time, but it appears we will have it under control with vaccines. I might even be open to wearing a mask at times when I can't help but be in that situation. I just don't want it to be required.

 

[57stratdawg]

I get that, I'm just pointing out that when you compare how Asian and Western countries fared during the pandemic, those early outbreaks in Wuhan vs Northern Italy look like a forks in the road.

 

[aTotal360]

Correct. Lots of migrant Chinese work in the textile industry in Northern Italy. Basically all the high end clothing manufactures hire Chinese workers much like the US hires Mexican/Latin Americans. That area is also a huge tourist destination. Long story short, COVID came from Wuhan, got passed around sweat shops in tourism heavy areas of Italy, and the rest is history.

 

[Bill Shankly]

You didn't address what he said. A lot of people still want masks and social distancing in public for the foreseeable future, including the CDC.

Here is a fact that I know at the end of the day - I did not get sick at all this year. Not once. I usually get 2-3 colds per year.

Another fact - I barely wore a mask, and only when absolutely mandated. But, I social distance myself naturally.

This tells me that I was still getting sick beforehand, and it obviously wasn't due to the weather. I was contracting it from other people. Not sure if the lack of sickness this year was due to the masks or if that was due to a bigger awareness of sickness in general and lesser crowds. I tend to think it was the second one. Don't get it twisted....masks DO help, just not to the point that I feel I need to wear one. Maybe some of these goobers who love to get up in people's spaces need to do it I guess, and it helps with some of these nasty mfer's breath too.

So, I honestly think I'm going to second guess doing any type of crowded stuff in the winter time from now on, in order to avoid flu and what not. Obviously Rona can infect at any time, but it appears we will have it under control with vaccines. I might even be open to wearing a mask at times when I can't help but be in that situation. I just don't want it to be required.

He wanted to know when we would get back to normal, that's my answer.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I’d take what you read from the media on variants with a grain of salt. At this point they’re just trying to make a story for clicks. Virologists are almost giddy with how well the vaccine works and the point of the vaccine was to prevent severe illness and death which is almost 100 percent with all of them.

 

[Bill Shankly]

I’d take what you read from the media on variants with a grain of salt. At this point they’re just trying to make a story for clicks. Virologists are almost giddy with how well the vaccine works and the point of the vaccine was to prevent severe illness and death which is almost 100 percent with all of them.

Correct

 

[dog12]

I’d take what you read from the media on variants with a grain of salt. At this point they’re just trying to make a story for clicks. Virologists are almost giddy with how well the vaccine works and the point of the vaccine was to prevent severe illness and death which is almost 100 percent with all of them.

Would any article from "New York Magazine" be even remotely objective?

Or, would the article from "New York Magazine" assume a position and promote/defend that position with only those facts that advantage their position while ignoring/downplaying all facts that disadvantage their position?

 

[johnson86-1]

It's really not a very good article. It spends a lot of time talking about the West not taking Wuhan seriously like China, but they were getting their information from the Chinese government. Granted, it's pretty stupid to take anything the Chinese communicate at face value, but I think that's pretty relevant.

It does do a good job pointing out that policy choices don't make a huge difference. The virus's trajectory is driven more by non-policy issues. But it buries that lead relatively deep, and doesn't talk about the single catastrophic policy decision that has been shown to make a big difference, which is forcing covid positive patients into vulnerable populations like at nursing homes.

Also, it's sort of pointless to look at the US rates as we don't have a US response. If you take New York and New Jersey out, where they drove up their death counts through a callous indifference to seniors, the US looks a lot different.

It talks about failure of testing but doesn't talk about the fact that the CDC screwed up tests and that the FDA wouldn't allow temporary tests, as if 75% accurate and immediate results wouldn't have helped.

It also has some nonsensical paragraphs, like this one:

"What this all looks like a year from now remains, as a result, very much an open question, and it is striking, at this point, how little leaders have been punished. “Americans, in their lives as citizens and voters, have not rebelled against what has happened,” Cowen says. “And you have to blame that as a more fundamental cause than whatever the government has screwed up, which is plenty.” Trump, the face of America’s pandemic incompetence, almost won reelection, falling by only a small margin in critical states. Gavin Newsom is likely to be recalled, and Andrew Cuomo is immolating in scandals both related and unrelated to his management of the pandemic, but in Texas, Greg Abbott’s approval ratings are above water, and in Florida, Ron DeSantis has gotten eight points more popular since summer."

He says politicians have not been punished, but the examples he gives show that politicians are paying for incompetence and being rewarded for competence. Not as much as you'd like certainly. Newsome and Cuomo should already be gone based on their performance, but they are basically in one party states, so relative to that, that are taking a significant political hit. Desantis has gotten much more popular in a state that is relatively split politically even if it ends up consistently red. Similarly, Greg Abbot, who hasn't done as well as Desantis but much better than Cuomo or Newsome, is maintaining his popularity in another state that is consistently red but still relatively split politically.


Then some sentences completely disconnected from reality:

Democrats have endeavoured to almost single-handedly restore state capacity after two generations of market-based solutions and neoliberal austerity.

We have austerely run up trillions of dollars of debt in the last two generations. Is he disappointed we haven't turned ourselves into zimbabwe already? Exactly how much government spending could he possibly want?

 

[LittleBigDog]

You really don't believe that, right? Virus was always going to virus!

Did you read the part where a decisive lockdown for 3 weeks very early on would've gotten it done? We had constant indecisiveness, combined with an election year and lots of pandering to the base, along with a huge swath of people who STILL think that being asked to wear a mask is akin to being invaded by land troops from the old USSR. Hand me 3 weeks of doing absolutely nothing and I'd take it.

"Did you read the part where a decisive lockdown for 3 weeks very early on would've gotten it done?"...stupid conjecture and 3 weeks of lockdown would not have let to that outcome.

 

[johnson86-1]

Did you read the part where a decisive lockdown for 3 weeks very early on would've gotten it done? We had constant indecisiveness, combined with an election year and lots of pandering to the base, along with a huge swath of people who STILL think that being asked to wear a mask is akin to being invaded by land troops from the old USSR. Hand me 3 weeks of doing absolutely nothing and I'd take it.

That's just wishful thinking. Sure, in some idealized world, we could shut it down for 3 weeks and stop the spread. It's not possible in the world we live in. If it were, we should still do it now to shut down a lot of viruses that don't have ready non-human reservoirs. In reality, what would happen is we'd impose a ton of harm on people in exchange for a temporary dip.

 

[Raiderdawg.sixpack]

I’d take what you read from the media on variants with a grain of salt. At this point they’re just trying to make a story for clicks. Virologists are almost giddy with how well the vaccine works and the point of the vaccine was to prevent severe illness and death which is almost 100 percent with all of them.

This is very true.

As long as a variant does not develop into a true new strain, then most I have talked with are very happy with the vaccine program.

 

[Mobile Bay]

If the fear-mongers have their way, we won’t ever be back to normal. They’ll push for us in the West to exist as Asians have for years which is wearing masks constantly while in public.
In your honest opinion, do you ever foresee things going back to normal? Given the CDC still pushes for masks after vaccination, the changes in the virus itself, and the fear people have of the virus, I don’t see a segment NOT existing without masks and going back to pre-2020 standards.
If you wear masks to -rote that others, then your logic will make you continue to wear masks no matter what: whether it’s SARS-CoV-19 or the common flu. If you can prevent spreading a virus that kills, you will continue to do so. If you’re intellectually honest, you will do this.
I’ve heard the push to “flatten the curve” and “if you can save ONE life” pushed so much. There is no light at the end of that tunnel.

Asians don't constantly wear masks in public you dolt. It is a common practice in some Asian countries to wear them when not feeling well as a polite act.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I wasn’t referring to the link but more the news media in general as far as variants go.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

That's just wishful thinking. Sure, in some idealized world, we could shut it down for 3 weeks and stop the spread. It's not possible in the world we live in. If it were, we should still do it now to shut down a lot of viruses that don't have ready non-human reservoirs. In reality, what would happen is we'd impose a ton of harm on people in exchange for a temporary dip.

Which is essentially what happened.

Don't get me wrong, total lockdown is absolutely the most effective way to stop the spread. It's just not worth the consequences. Masks aren't really even worth the inconvenience most times. But proper social distancing and restrictions in certain places WAS worth the risk and should have been the play from the beginning.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Did you read the part where a decisive lockdown for 3 weeks very early on would've gotten it done? We had constant indecisiveness, combined with an election year and lots of pandering to the base, along with a huge swath of people who STILL think that being asked to wear a mask is akin to being invaded by land troops from the old USSR. Hand me 3 weeks of doing absolutely nothing and I'd take it.

Let's get this locked quickly. I don't remember any national health issue that was politicized as much as Covid. Running global and national graphics constantly on media outlets of the sick and deadv(that seem to have disappeared after November.)

Prez Biden has been singing his own praises for his handling of Covid measures that were already in place after he couldn't remember his plan he had sung about during the election. Relief money being held back till after the election and now gushing out along with pork bellies.

The pandemic was serious. People died, lost jobs and homes, and are still suffering but the political figures and media have used and continue to use it for political gain and that is truly deplorable.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

We have austerely run up trillions of dollars of debt in the last two generations. Is he disappointed we haven't turned ourselves into zimbabwe already? Exactly how much government spending could he possibly want?

I though we were solving child poverty.? **

 

[ckDOG]

Very true.

If the fear-mongers have their way, we won’t ever be back to normal. They’ll push for us in the West to exist as Asians have for years which is wearing masks constantly while in public.
In your honest opinion, do you ever foresee things going back to normal? Given the CDC still pushes for masks after vaccination, the changes in the virus itself, and the fear people have of the virus, I don’t see a segment NOT existing without masks and going back to pre-2020 standards.
If you wear masks to -rote that others, then your logic will make you continue to wear masks no matter what: whether it’s SARS-CoV-19 or the common flu. If you can prevent spreading a virus that kills, you will continue to do so. If you’re intellectually honest, you will do this.
I’ve heard the push to “flatten the curve” and “if you can save ONE life” pushed so much. There is no light at the end of that tunnel.

The fear mongers are unbearable. There's a ton to be positive about right now, but that doesn't drive clicks. New strain, new normal, someone died after a jab, etc. articles are what sells.

On the flip side, so are the fiercely stubborn "virus gonna virus" people. We don't have to live our lives on egg shells, but there were and are some very easy non invasive changes that the masses can temporarily embrace to help control the situation better. For every fear monger, we also had head in stand stubborn people (just because or bc identity politics) that didn't want to change their habits whatsoever. That hasn't helped either and likely has extended and/or made health impacts worse than they should have been.

I think the leaders in both administrations have done a terrible job at communicating that there is no perfection to be achieved in a pandemic. You admit there are unknowns. You admit that distance and masks aren't perfect, but help at the macro levels. You ask that society actually act like one and we try to balance what's best for everyone, while learning about the unknowns on the fly, and be nimble when we learn new things. Stop framing the discussion as an all out achievement of perfection vs a "I can't make a difference with some reasonable change in behavior" stance. The whole binary positioning in American culture is destroying us in so many ways.

 

[Bill Shankly]

It's really not a very good article. It spends a lot of time talking about the West not taking Wuhan seriously like China, but they were getting their information from the Chinese government. Granted, it's pretty stupid to take anything the Chinese communicate at face value, but I think that's pretty relevant.

It does do a good job pointing out that policy choices don't make a huge difference. The virus's trajectory is driven more by non-policy issues. But it buries that lead relatively deep, and doesn't talk about the single catastrophic policy decision that has been shown to make a big difference, which is forcing covid positive patients into vulnerable populations like at nursing homes.

Also, it's sort of pointless to look at the US rates as we don't have a US response. If you take New York and New Jersey out, where they drove up their death counts through a callous indifference to seniors, the US looks a lot different.

It talks about failure of testing but doesn't talk about the fact that the CDC screwed up tests and that the FDA wouldn't allow temporary tests, as if 75% accurate and immediate results wouldn't have helped.

It also has some nonsensical paragraphs, like this one:



He says politicians have not been punished, but the examples he gives show that politicians are paying for incompetence and being rewarded for competence. Not as much as you'd like certainly. Newsome and Cuomo should already be gone based on their performance, but they are basically in one party states, so relative to that, that are taking a significant political hit. Desantis has gotten much more popular in a state that is relatively split politically even if it ends up consistently red. Similarly, Greg Abbot, who hasn't done as well as Desantis but much better than Cuomo or Newsome, is maintaining his popularity in another state that is consistently red but still relatively split politically.


Then some sentences completely disconnected from reality:



We have austerely run up trillions of dollars of debt in the last two generations. Is he disappointed we haven't turned ourselves into zimbabwe already? Exactly how much government spending could he possibly want?

Policy does matter, so does culture. That is one of the main themes of the article. What the Chinese did we in no way would be able to do here. There was also a lot of western arrogance involved. Very early on you heard it all the time. "It won't be that bad HERE." I was absolutely guilty of that myself.

 

[Bill Shankly]

The fear mongers are unbearable. There's a ton to be positive about right now, but that doesn't drive clicks. New strain, new normal, someone died after a jab, etc. articles are what sells.

On the flip side, so are the fiercely stubborn "virus gonna virus" people. We don't have to live our lives on egg shells, but there were and are some very easy non invasive changes that the masses can temporarily embrace to help control the situation better. For every fear monger, we also had head in stand stubborn people (just because or bc identity politics) that didn't want to change their habits whatsoever. That hasn't helped either and likely has extended and/or made health impacts worse than they should have been.



I think the leaders in both administrations have done a terrible job at communicating that there is no perfection to be achieved in a pandemic. You admit there are unknowns. You admit that distance and masks aren't perfect, but help at the macro levels. You ask that society actually act like one and we try to balance what's best for everyone, while learning about the unknowns on the fly, and be nimble when we learn new thugs. Stop framing the discussion as an all out achievement of perfection vs a "I can't make a difference with some reasonable change in behavior" stance. The whole binary positioning in American culture is destroying us in so many ways.

The worst thing that happened to us in the US was for the response to break out on political lines. That all but insured a debacle.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

The real takeaway: the word "hope" should never be used to drive a policy decision. In fact, remove it from your professional vocabulary.

 

[Bill Shankly]

The real takeaway: the word "hope" should never be used to drive a policy decision. In fact, remove it from your professional vocabulary.

YEP

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

And I'm dead serious about removing "hope" from your professional vocabulary. If you send an email to a colleague or customer along the lines of "I'm hoping to have it finished by Friday" you need to dump that email and start over. Your customer or colleague is hoping you have it finished by Friday because that's all they can do about you. You, on the other hand, can plan and take action.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

In those cases, I ask for their preferred deadlines or when I'm giving them info, when the task would likely occur or be complete.

 

[WilCoDawg]

So there were a great amount of Asians pre-2020 who “didn’t feel well” going about their days as normal wearing masks to be polite? Seems like the polite thing wild be to stay home if you’re not feeling well. But that’s just too crazy of an idea I guess.

I’ve included a linky link for you to educate yourself on since you think that’s the reason for mask wearing over there, you dolt!
https://qz.com/299003/a-quick-history-of-why-asians-wear-surgical-masks-in-public/

 

[WilCoDawg]

Pandering to the base like crying that Orange Man’s travel restrictions to China at the end of 1/2020 was xenophobic?

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Could I interest you in "change"?***

 

[paindonthurt_]

Man the one thing I know mask have done is to remind me to brush my nasty mouth.

 

[dorndawg]

Could I interest you in "change"?***

 

[PirateDawg]

Arm chair quarterbacking

Really got me with this one:

[FONT=&quot]In the U.S., the story of the pandemic year has been dominated by the character of the president who presided over it so ineptly, often with such indifference it seemed he was rooting for the disease.

[/FONT]Funny, since Biden is still using Fauci and the team Trump put together. We did something never accomplished before with the vaccine. All that swept under a rug to bash a republican.

on the coronavirus response in the West. It should provoke thought no matter where you stand. It's long but well worth the read. Don't let the title put you off. If the mods want to lock it now that would be fine. I just wanted the folks who I've debated with to see it.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/03/how-the-west-lost-covid-19.html