It appears that like most issues the cause is more complex than just a simply "my opponents did something that caused the problem"
There's no clear evidence linking bail reforms -- which have been in place for years in some cities -- to the recent rise in violent crimes. In fact, the majority of cities that have seen increases in crime have not eliminated cash bail. Many variables have contributed to the increases Graham is referencing but no evidence to suggest that bail reform is a major factor.
Several states and jurisdictions have passed bail reform to varying degrees for misdemeanor offenses. Washington, DC, removed cash bail in most cases in 1992. New Mexico largely eliminated it in 2016. In 2017, Cook County, Illinois, passed significant bail reform. The state of Illinois eliminated the practice in February but the
change won't go into effect until 2023. New Jersey largely
removed cash bail in 2017 and
Alaska largely ended its cash bail system in 2018.
New York state passed legislation in 2019 on bail reform, making "release before trial automatic for most people accused of misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies,"
according to the Vera Institute of Justice. Three months after the law went into effect it was
amended to allow judges more situations to institute cash bail. In March, the California Supreme Court ruled that defendants could not be jailed before their trials simply because they cannot afford their set bail.
However, the increase in crime has occurred in cities across the country, not just those with bail reform measures. According to a report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, out of the 66 largest police jurisdictions, 63 saw an increase in at least one category of violent crimes in 2020, CNN
reported.
The vast majority of these cities have not passed reforms eliminating bail.
Experts have
noted that the increases in crime during the pandemic are not due to a single factor but rather to a
"perfect storm" of events and changes including the subsequent economic collapse, changes in policing and more.
Studies on bail reform
There have been very few studies analyzing the effects of bail reform on crime rates during the pandemic era and studies done prior to the pandemic have come to different conclusions as to the effects these reforms have had.
In a November 2020 report, the left-leaning Prison Policy Initiative, a criminal justice reform think tank,
reviewed 13 jurisdictions that have instituted pretrial reforms -- including Washington, DC, New Jersey and Kentucky -- and found that "All but one of these jurisdictions saw decreases or negligible increases in crime after implementing reforms."
"The one exception is New York State," the report says, "where the reform law existed for just a few months before it was largely rolled back."
In July of last year, the New York Post
investigated NYPD Commissioner Dermot Shea's claim that bail reform played a role in the rise in shootings. The Post reported that, according to data from the NYPD, bail reform did not play a role in the increase in shootings. Out of the 528 shootings from January 2020 through June 2020, only one person charged with a shooting had been released under the state's bail reform, according to the Post.
One
study conducted prior to the pandemic contradicts the implication that bail reforms lead to a significant increase in violent crime. An October 2019 report from the University of New Mexico indicated that after the state's bail reforms were implemented, a majority of individuals released pretrial did not commit other crimes.
According to the report, "While approximately one-quarter of the defendants released were arrested for a new offense during the pretrial period, very few defendants released pretrial were arrested for a new violent crime."
Studies on certain jurisdictions, such as Cook County, disagree on whether cash bail can be linked to any increase in crime. Two studies from the
University of Utah and
Loyola University Chicago came to opposite conclusions on whether the bail reform in Cook County led to an increase in crime in the county.
These studies of Cook County are a clear
example of how researchers
disagree on methodology in studying the effects of bail reform and increases in crime.
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