OT: Economic Recovery

[tom1944]

Who did you pick

 

[T2Kplus10]

Only 20% of active managers beat the market on a yearly basis. And they're not always the same ones. Just FYI. You can look it up and with the higher fees they charge, if you pick the wrong one, it'll cost you more than an ETF or some other passive investment.

And over a 5 year period about 95% of managers can't beat the market. It's a fools game, just like in Vegas. Eventually, the house always wins.

 

[RU05]

I have some crazy beginners luck rolling for me.

I have beaten all 3 major's in each of the last 5 days.

I hadn't really compared my portfolio prior to that, so I'm not sure how I compared when the market had bad days like it did early last week. I definitely did not do well those days. So I think I might be more volatile in general.

Picked up Harley Davidson this morning, as I saw it on the TV tracker, looked it up and it fit the major criteria I have been leaning on, 1)way off it's 12 month high down 50%, 2)offering a good dividend, (this morning it was at 8% currently at 6.97), and 3)an iconic brand. It was up 5% for me on the day, though it was up 15% from yesterdays close. Wish I had seen it earlier in the week when it was trading around $18, I think I would have swooped in then.

 

[Jtung230]

Don’t want to beat a dead horse. My last comment on active vs index i

I have some crazy beginners luck rolling for me.

I have beaten all 3 major's in each of the last 5 days.

I hadn't really compared my portfolio prior to that, so I'm not sure how I compared when the market had bad days like it did early last week. I definitely did not do well those days. So I think I might be more volatile in general.

Picked up Harley Davidson this morning, as I saw it on the TV tracker, looked it up and it fit the major criteria I have been leaning on, 1)way off it's 12 month high down 50%, 2)offering a good dividend, (this morning it was at 8% currently at 6.97), and 3)an iconic brand. It was up 5% for me on the day, though it was up 15% from yesterdays close. Wish I had seen it earlier in the week when it was trading around $18, I think I would have swooped in then.

1st rule of fight club. Congrats and hope you didn’t jinx it.

PS I’m still a seller in this market. Think it will test 2k again (S&P).

 

[RU05]

Don’t want to beat a dead horse. My last comment on active vs index i

1st rule of fight club. Congrats and hope you didn’t jinx it.

PS I’m still a seller in this market. Think it will test 2k again (S&P).

I'm not superstitious, and I'm also pretty aware that I will see some sort of dip pretty soon. One good thing about a good run is I won't sweat it much if there is a bad run soon after. My money was just sitting there doing nothing anyway, so as long as I don't go negative of my initial investment I'm OK.

 

[Scarlet83]

Don’t want to beat a dead horse. My last comment on active vs index i

1st rule of fight club. Congrats and hope you didn’t jinx it.

PS I’m still a seller in this market. Think it will test 2k again (S&P).

I agree with your thoughts of being a sellers market.

 

[RU05]

I've also been experimenting with some short term trading, and I sold 2 stock way too early in the past couple days.

Bought Hertz at $3.90, saw it drop to about $3.50, which spooked me a bit, so when it got up to $4.20 I sold and took my winnings. Closed today at $5.00.

Bought Spirit a week ago at $11.97, watched it meander and just miss on a couple limit sales during that time, then as it rose today I sold it at $13.15. It closed today at $14.30 and is even above that in extended hours trading.

So I did well on each of these trades, but I missed out on a much bigger gain.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I've also been experimenting with some short term trading, and I sold 2 stock way too early in the past couple days.

Bought Hertz at $3.90, saw it drop to about $3.50, which spooked me a bit, so when it got up to $4.20 I sold and took my winnings. Closed today at $5.00.

Bought Spirit a week ago at $11.97, watched it meander and just miss on a couple limit sales during that time, then as it rose today I sold it at $13.15. It closed today at $14.30 and is even above that in extended hours trading.

So I did well on each of these trades, but I missed out on a much bigger gain.

The market always wins!

 

[Scarlet83]

The market always wins!

Not a smart statement. The market is neutral. Every buyer has a seller.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Not a smart statement. The market is neutral. Every buyer has a seller.

Very smart statement. 95%+ managers can't beat the market. They always lose in the end vs the indexes.

 

[Scarlet83]

Very smart statement. 95%+ managers can't beat the market. They always lose in the end vs the indexes.

That is just plain wrong. You do not know what the F you are talking about.

Hope you and your fam are doing OK with the virus.

 

[Jtung230]

I agree with your thoughts of being a sellers market.

One stock I really want to short is Tesla. Just don’t have the balls to do it. Put option are stupid expensive.

 

[T2Kplus10]

That is just plain wrong. You do not know what the F you are talking about.

Hope you and your fam are doing OK with the virus.

So you believe that most managers beat the market? Data says otherwise.

 

[rurahrah000]

Very smart statement. 95%+ managers can't beat the market. They always lose in the end vs the indexes.

You are correct. Most active managers have a hard time beating the market. The S&P 500 picks the best stocks in the market which makes it difficult to top. I have accounts (401k, personal investment) where I only index invest and then a smaller account where I invest in single stocks. Even if I hit a home run with 5-6 stocks, it only takes 1-2 bad stock investment to fall behind the index.

 

[T2Kplus10]

You are correct. Most active managers have a hard time beating the market. The S&P 500 picks the best stocks in the market which makes it difficult to top. I have accounts (401k, personal investment) where I only index invest and then a smaller account where I invest in single stocks. Even if I hit a home run with 5-6 stocks, it only takes 1-2 bad stock investment to fall behind the index.

Great info, thanks. We are index investors. Have thought about individual stocks from time to time, but if most pros can't beat the market, what chance do we have!

 

[T2Kplus10]

FYI - positive pharma and market news:

Dow set to jump 500 points at the open after positive news on Gilead coronavirus treatment
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

 

[miketd1]

Like I wrote on a similar thread on the main board:

Passive investing is perfectly fine for 80% of us, especially if we're early/mid-career.

It allows us to spend time/energy focusing on increasing income, which is far more important in these stages.

Personally, my wife and I have 95% of our money locked up in Vanguard target date funds for the simple fact that we are crazy busy raising little kids while navigating our careers (further complicated by my long commute). The last thing we want to do is add to our mental load.

Maybe in a few years when the kids are older, I'll have more time to allocate to active investing strategies. However, my gut tells me it'll be far more worth my while to tackle the lawn/garden duties that we're currently outsourcing...

 

[T2Kplus10]

Like I wrote on a similar thread on the main board:

Passive investing is perfectly fine for 80% of us, especially if we're early/mid-career.

It allows us to spend time/energy focusing on increasing income, which is far more important in these stages.

Personally, my wife and I have 95% of our money locked up in Vanguard target date funds for the simple fact that we are crazy busy raising little kids while navigating our careers (further complicated by my long commute). The last thing we want to do is add to our mental load.

Maybe in a few years when the kids are older, I'll have more time to allocate to active investing strategies. However, my gut tells me it'll be far more worth my while to tackle the lawn/garden duties that we're currently outsourcing...

Very good way to think about this. Passive/index investing is pretty darn good and takes a minimal amount of time. That's a win-win for most people. We don't do target date funds, but all indexes in our various investment accounts.

 

[RU05]

Any thoughts on the Motley Fool? Got an email which said today only get a year subscription for $50. Typically $199. Worth it?

 

[RU05]

Like I wrote on a similar thread on the main board:

Passive investing is perfectly fine for 80% of us, especially if we're early/mid-career.

It allows us to spend time/energy focusing on increasing income, which is far more important in these stages.

Personally, my wife and I have 95% of our money locked up in Vanguard target date funds for the simple fact that we are crazy busy raising little kids while navigating our careers (further complicated by my long commute). The last thing we want to do is add to our mental load.

Maybe in a few years when the kids are older, I'll have more time to allocate to active investing strategies. However, my gut tells me it'll be far more worth my while to tackle the lawn/garden duties that we're currently outsourcing...

Ya, for me, I have time where I can get into the details. And as some one who has enjoyed digging through stats, whether it be reading box scores in the news paper when I was young, to mining advanced stats in more recent years, turns out I like the process. And if I make solid money, even if I'm a little behind the major's, I'm OK with that, for now at least.

 

[RU05]

If I would have held my Spirit stock another 22 hours I would have increased my winnings by about %200.

 

[Scarlet83]

So you believe that most managers beat the market? Data says otherwise.

Holy crap. Just read what I posted. Most managers DO NOT beat their benchmark after fees. My point is do not invest in MOST managers. Invest in the BEST active managers.

I have been really clear in my posts.

 

[tom1944]

Holy crap. Just read what I posted. Most managers DO NOT beat their benchmark after fees. My point is do not invest in MOST managers. Invest in the BEST active managers.

I have been really clear in my posts.

Who are these BEST managers. I would love to see if I can invest with them

 

[T2Kplus10]

Holy crap. Just read what I posted. Most managers DO NOT beat their benchmark after fees. My point is do not invest in MOST managers. Invest in the BEST active managers.

I have been really clear in my posts.

Got it! Thanks for the clarification. I was wondering what I was missing.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Any thoughts on the Motley Fool? Got an email which said today only get a year subscription for $50. Typically $199. Worth it?

I had a subscription a while back, perhaps 10-12 years ago. It was very good, but life got busy.

 

[rurahrah000]

Holy crap. Just read what I posted. Most managers DO NOT beat their benchmark after fees. My point is do not invest in MOST managers. Invest in the BEST active managers.

I have been really clear in my posts.

There a few active managers that consistently beat the S&P 500 index fund, but those are highly sought after and usually would require a very high investing base with high redemption fees. But I could be wrong. Do you have names?

 

[Joey Bags]

So with the market already retracing a large chunk of initial losses in a shuttered global economy, what is everyone’s thought on how the major indices will perform when things start opening up?

I keep hearing that the market has already built recovery in, so theoretically things wouldn’t move as much if we don’t get that second dip.

Personally, I still believe we will get a significant second dip when states continue to push back openings into the summer months. The real threat is that we push opening up back far enough to where a potential second viral wave starting early fall prevents us from large scale re-opening at all this year. We still have a dearth of medical data on this thing and how it behaves, even with recent good trends.

 

[T2Kplus10]

So with the market already retracing a large chunk of initial losses in a shuttered global economy, what is everyone’s thought on how the major indices will perform when things start opening up?

I keep hearing that the market has already built recovery in, so theoretically things wouldn’t move as much if we don’t get that second dip.

Personally, I still believe we will get a significant second dip when states continue to push back openings into the summer months. The real threat is that we push opening up back far enough to where a potential second viral wave starting early fall prevents us from large scale re-opening at all this year. We still have a dearth of medical data on this thing and how it behaves, even with recent good trends.

I'm sure there will be more volatility and perhaps another down, but the market was solely impacted by the medical crisis, so as that lightens up, the market will go back up. Interest rates are zero, real estate has been impacted, where else can money go for long-term growth? For most people, it's either put money under the mattress or invest.

 

[rurahrah000]

I'm sure there will be more volatility and perhaps another down, but the market was solely impacted by the medical crisis, so as that lightens up, the market will go back up. Interest rates are zero, real estate has been impacted, where else can money go for long-term growth? For most people, it's either put money under the mattress or invest.

Thank you for acknowledging that this is a medical crisis and not "hysteria" or "government created crisis"

 

[Jtung230]

So with the market already retracing a large chunk of initial losses in a shuttered global economy, what is everyone’s thought on how the major indices will perform when things start opening up?

I keep hearing that the market has already built recovery in, so theoretically things wouldn’t move as much if we don’t get that second dip.

Personally, I still believe we will get a significant second dip when states continue to push back openings into the summer months. The real threat is that we push opening up back far enough to where a potential second viral wave starting early fall prevents us from large scale re-opening at all this year. We still have a dearth of medical data on this thing and how it behaves, even with recent good trends.

The market is pricing in a V-shape recovery. If you don't agree, you should either raise cash or short the market. Personally, I think S&P at 3k has more downside than up. But @T2Kplus10 is correct that there are limited choices right now for yields. One thing is for certain, volatility will remain high because no one has conviction in this market. This also loops in the prior discussion about passive vs active management. In a time like this, active management has to seized the opportunity.

 

[RU05]

I'm sure there will be more volatility and perhaps another down, but the market was solely impacted by the medical crisis, so as that lightens up, the market will go back up. Interest rates are zero, real estate has been impacted, where else can money go for long-term growth? For most people, it's either put money under the mattress or invest.

This.

Now the market has been on a solid upswing over the past 5 days, so I do expect some minor down days upcoming, maybe tomorrow even, but I don't see another major downswing. Definitely don't think we go near testing the low again.

 

[Jtung230]

I'm sure there will be more volatility and perhaps another down, but the market was solely impacted by the medical crisis, so as that lightens up, the market will go back up. Interest rates are zero, real estate has been impacted, where else can money go for long-term growth? For most people, it's either put money under the mattress or invest.

It was caused by a medical crisis but the headwind will be employment and consumption habits.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Thank you for acknowledging that this is a medical crisis and not "hysteria" or "government created crisis"

Oh. I forgot to add the word "perceived".

 

[RU05]

Also consider that we will be seeing nothing good news over the next couple months, as states open up, medical advances become available, and the virus goes into a typical summertime slumber.

We will have to see what happens come fall and how bad the virus effects us then. But I'm optimistic that we are attacking this thing in such a way that in won't be near worst case scenario.

 

[T2Kplus10]

This.

Now the market has been on a solid upswing over the past 5 days, so I do expect some minor down days upcoming, maybe tomorrow even, but I don't see another major downswing. Definitely don't think we go near testing the low again.

Something extreme will have to happen to test the low again. Possible, but hopefully unlikely.

 

[RU05]

As evidenced by the Russell 2000 small caps a leading driver in the markets recent run.

 

[RU05]

Got caught chasing the dragon with Hertz, and then they release a "missed lease payment" bombshell. Down 20% from their days highs.

Are there similar stories for other companies that will break in the coming weeks?

 

[Jtung230]

Something extreme will have to happen to test the low again. Possible, but hopefully unlikely.

Not really. The market has fully built in all the positives. One miss or continued bad news or have a sell off. I officially took a few short positions (S&P and Tesla). Who said casinos are not opened. LOL

 

[rurahrah000]

Not really. The market has fully built in all the positives. One miss or continued bad news or have a sell off. I officially took a few short positions (S&P and Tesla). Who said casinos are not opened. LOL

That Tesla short must be hurting right now.

 

[DHajekRC84]

If I would have held my Spirit stock another 22 hours I would have increased my winnings by about %200.

and finished over $17 yesterday. I'm holding both SAVE and AAL for the long haul. Just getting back close to normal would be 400% ROI.
The others so far?
CVX +18 (an Oil Company right now)
DIS +11
KMI +11
LOW +24
MAR +11

all of these with serious upside