2-3 months? Life will not be the same for most Americans. Need to bounce back by end of April or early May.
OT: Economic Recovery
- Thread starter Jtung230
- Start date
It's a mistake to simply lay this at the feet of Senate Democrats. There's plenty of stupid Republican pork that got stuffed into that bill, as well. Abstinence education in public schools? Really? You think that's how we should be spending our time (and money) in the present environment?
I'm working right now. If I get sick, Ill take a few weeks off then get back to my business, hoping it's not destroyed by that point. I'll take that chance. Right now I'm watching my customers and business slowly die and I think its unnecessary.
South Korea model. ID, treat, return to life as much as possible
2 to 3 months after hysteria? Not a chance - really hope I am wrong - but "normal" may be measured in years or at least 18 to 24 months. As it was, we were very long into an expansion so we were due for a slowdown, if not, a mild recession. The economic party can't go on forever. Eventually earnings slow, deficits matter and people and businesses get over leveraged.
Anyway, here's hoping for a recovery miracle so we can all get back to arguing over the starting QB, DB's not turning around and other important stuff.............
Another problem, don’t think for a minute that when this turns around, companies will end up using it to force out older, higher paid individuals...
Solar power tax credits and Airplane emission reduction was a nice touch from your side. What they have to do with Covid-19? Well I'll get back to you on that one, need to do a little research.
It's not "my side".
I continue to be amazed at the way people will see an expressed opinion and then immediately proceed to put people in a box.
I agree with you about the solar tax credits and the aircraft fuel studies. It's all unnecessary. But Congressional Whores gon' get on their knees every single time there's a rush to pass emergency legislation. Every. Single. Time.
There are laws against companies laying people off?
Nope. There are not.
Nor are there any effective protections against the will of those companies to pick and choose who they lay off based on pay grade. It happens all the time, it's happened forever.
And since you cited the ADEA (but certainly haven't ever actually read it), here's the relevant bit:
PROHIBITION OF AGE DISCRIMINATION
SEC. 623. [Section 4]
(a) Employer practices
It shall be unlawful for an employer-
(1) to fail or refuse to hire or to discharge any individual or otherwise discriminate against any individual with respect to his compensation, terms, conditions, or privileges of employment, because of such individual’s age;
(2) to limit, segregate, or classify his employees in any way which would deprive or tend to deprive any individual of employment opportunities or otherwise adversely affect his status as an employee, because of such individual’s age; or
(3) to reduce the wage rate of any employee in order to comply with this chapter.
See what I'm sayin'? There's nothing in there, or anywhere else, that prohibits an employer from making RIF decisions based on wage.SEC. 623. [Section 4]
(a) Employer practices
It shall be unlawful for an employer-
(1) to fail or refuse to hire or to discharge any individual or otherwise discriminate against any individual with respect to his compensation, terms, conditions, or privileges of employment, because of such individual’s age;
(2) to limit, segregate, or classify his employees in any way which would deprive or tend to deprive any individual of employment opportunities or otherwise adversely affect his status as an employee, because of such individual’s age; or
(3) to reduce the wage rate of any employee in order to comply with this chapter.
Recovery will not be as strong as expected.
The big corporations will be fine with cost cutting thanks to finding out which departments can be outsourced because everyone is working remotely.
Distance learning will become "real" and many smaller schools and universities will be hurt as enrollment drops.
Delivery only restaurants will become popular leading to increasing "gig economy" jobs that have unstructured hours and no benefits.
Unemployment won't be 3.1% again and the drop in retail spending will hurt GDP growth.
The big corporations will be fine with cost cutting thanks to finding out which departments can be outsourced because everyone is working remotely.
Distance learning will become "real" and many smaller schools and universities will be hurt as enrollment drops.
Delivery only restaurants will become popular leading to increasing "gig economy" jobs that have unstructured hours and no benefits.
Unemployment won't be 3.1% again and the drop in retail spending will hurt GDP growth.
Mmhmm.
Say, if you happen to have an Econ textbook with small words and lots of pictures, please lend it to @T2Kplus10.
Yeah, I hate to sound like a greedy corporate pig, but the measures we are taking to tighten our belts in response to this are realistically things we should’ve done years ago. I doubt we will return to the bloat that we were operating with prior to this crisis.
Look at the models out there and the projections. There are absolutely still ways to curtail the onslaught and resulting overburden on healthcare workers and the supplies they use. Once doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, etc. get sick, it will be ugly.
I'm sure the $2,000 to $3,000 stimulus will make people run to the movies, buy McDonalds or go to the shore and play boardwalk games. Or they could just buy their necessities, pay their mortgage/bills or even hopefully put away a little bit for a rainy day.
South Korea did a great job at testing, identifying and isolating society to derail rapid transmission. We here in the USA did none of that..there is a big difference. Revisit this in 2 to 3 weeks and reassess what you said here. The hospitals in NY are about to burst at the seams and NJ is ramping up in regards to critically ill patients. Going about your daily routines and allowing this to spiral out of control will be disastrous.
not only most of the previous demands , but also new demands born out of this event
Certain sectors of the economy, yes, but the hospitality and travel industries will struggle to recover. Real estate will struggle to recover. When the levels of unemployment hit what they are projected to hit, this isn't a quick bounce back. Many small businesses will not survive. It leaves scars. It's the reason the greatest generation was the greatest generation. They lived thru the great depression and lived life differently than the previous one did after it, and the war were over.
Yes. The higher death rate is theoretical. The crashed economy is real and happening. We never should have turned the economy over to medical experts.
Does that thing in your head between your ears work?
Stick to the topic at hand. Nobody said anything about "layoffs" in general. The topic is about illegally targeting older people.
It's about companies jettisoning the more highly paid individuals in a given position. You're the one who claimed that they couldn't do it because it's illegal. I pointed out that a decision based on pay grade is not, in fact, illegal.
Now you're caught up.
Unless you are completely dense, they do not come out and say they are doing this but you will see a much higher % of younger/ lower paid folks who find their jobs unchanged than older people. they will hire back enough older workers to make sure it isn’t obvious but they know what they are doing and it will happen.
And I want to know how the economy is coming back the way you believe. During these few months of layoffs, unemployment checks will go to Cobra to keep medical coverage and meanwhile, we miss Cc/mortgage/rent payments that crush our credit scores as well as our savings. How do you recover from that?
RU4Real, you never disappoint. Keep at it! :Laughing
I think we need to see how well we can contain the virus before making these predictions. If the #'s continue to rise and we see spikes in mid western states that resemble what we are seeing in NJ, nevermind NY, then this thing is not going away in a couple months.
There Are two wars here -
Beat the virus,
And
A surviving post virus functioning economy.
Question-
Can we win both?
Beat the virus,
And
A surviving post virus functioning economy.
Question-
Can we win both?
I think in a week or two people, rich to poor to middle class, will all be biting at the bit to work and to earn money. The government will have to help many pay (maybe even forgive) past due mortgages, credit cards and bills for a certain timeframe to either prevent them from falling in the hole or to help them climb out. Once you’re in the debt hole, it’s very hard to pull yourself out of it.
I think many rich and more fortunate people pulled their money out the stock market much quicker than during 2007-2009. They felt the sting so hard last time, they said screw this, it’s not happening to me again. I think the same people will re-invest their money in the stock market at such low prices and drive stock prices up.
I’m concerned of US and EU reaction to China post virus. There could be some serious sanctions, tariffs, trade disputes and potentially threats of war when countries start pointing the finger. I hate to say this but the world needs China just as much as China needs the world, and much more as part of the rebuild. Chinese prices will be astronomically low to sell off inventory across the board. The machine has to keep moving. I think the World and China move on and fall right back into status quo. The lower Chinese prices could drive more domestic businesses/industries out of business.
I think many rich and more fortunate people pulled their money out the stock market much quicker than during 2007-2009. They felt the sting so hard last time, they said screw this, it’s not happening to me again. I think the same people will re-invest their money in the stock market at such low prices and drive stock prices up.
I’m concerned of US and EU reaction to China post virus. There could be some serious sanctions, tariffs, trade disputes and potentially threats of war when countries start pointing the finger. I hate to say this but the world needs China just as much as China needs the world, and much more as part of the rebuild. Chinese prices will be astronomically low to sell off inventory across the board. The machine has to keep moving. I think the World and China move on and fall right back into status quo. The lower Chinese prices could drive more domestic businesses/industries out of business.
I think many large companies will use this as an excuse to purge salaried US workers, especially those north of fifty, in order to reduce costs.
The Democrats are making a very bad mistake. The American public will be the one’s to be waiting on breadlines not Pelosi , Schumer, McConnell , Mnuchin or Trump. This is not the time to attempt to salve the wounds from Pelosi’s stimulus bill failure back in 2008. I hate to see this country turn to anarchy but you may see it happen by summer. Would make the late 60’s riots seem like a family bbq.
Economic recovery is the topic
The critical question is
are we looking at 4-6 weeks of TEMPORARY unemployment due to the stay home order....of which most get back to work or ...and unemployment goes back To 6-7%. Most People can survive the 4-6 hick-up with income turndown and will, by Christmas, be close to resuming their normal spending patterns in 2021
OR
Are we looking at a long stretch of required business shut does...where 20-30% of people miss 4-6 months of income. That would knock down total consumption across the board because that type of slow down would be felt in all sectors and slow down most sectors ...and just generate less across the board. That feels and smells like at least 12-18 moth recession
The critical question is
are we looking at 4-6 weeks of TEMPORARY unemployment due to the stay home order....of which most get back to work or ...and unemployment goes back To 6-7%. Most People can survive the 4-6 hick-up with income turndown and will, by Christmas, be close to resuming their normal spending patterns in 2021
OR
Are we looking at a long stretch of required business shut does...where 20-30% of people miss 4-6 months of income. That would knock down total consumption across the board because that type of slow down would be felt in all sectors and slow down most sectors ...and just generate less across the board. That feels and smells like at least 12-18 moth recession
The question is really in the balance. End of the day we will beat the virus, it's just how much do you lean towards the economy in the process.
Anything that disproportionately impacts a protected class (which includes people over 40) is illegal. It's really this simple. Those in protected classes (age, gender, and race) can't be laid off in any higher % than those in unprotected classes. All info on demos of layoffs are given to employees. Cross this line and you can set your watch to how quickly the lawsuits come.
At least, this is how the ethical and noble pharma industry does it.
I've never invested in stocks.
But I'm seeing this as an opportunity to jump in. I'm looking towards company's that have had strong 5 year averages but have tanked during this crisis. GM, Ford, Spirit, Jet Blue, Disney are some that I am focusing on.
I might get into some sort of fund, but I do want to play around a bit. Small scale stuff to start.
And I've also seen enough market tanks to view this as a short term thing, get in near the bottom, make some money, and then get out.
Personally, I don’t think index investing is a good idea in a market that is declining or flattening.
Not timing, just how you view the recovery. V or U, I agree with you. But a u that looks like this I_____________I is a different story
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