OT: Economic Recovery

[Jtung230]

It's looking more and more like a U shape instead of a V shape recovery. The pent up demand will disappear with high unemployment rate. More and more none hourly workers are being laid off at this point.

 

[RUschool]

It's looking more and more like a U shape instead of a V shape recovery. The pent up demand will disappear with high unemployment rate. More and more none hourly workers are being laid off at this point.

Never thought it was going to be V shape propaganda by Trump administration.

 

[hankee18]

We're going to have to get back to work.

We take 2 weeks off to build up the infrastructure to handle the all the patients the best we can. Then we must get back to work while managing the sick cases out of, and back into, the workforce.

 

[RU4Real]

We're going to have to get back to work.

We take 2 weeks off to build up the infrastructure to handle the all the patients the best we can. Then we must get back to work while managing the sick cases out of, and back into, the workforce.

And how does your plan address limiting transmission?

 

[T2Kplus10]

It's looking more and more like a U shape instead of a V shape recovery. The pent up demand will disappear with high unemployment rate. More and more none hourly workers are being laid off at this point.

Definitely V-shaped once the hysteria is gone. Demand is strong.

 

[Jtung230]

Definitely V-shaped once the hysteria is gone. Demand is strong.

Demand might be strong but can’t buy anything if you don’t have income.

 

[ruready07]

In the longer term it doesn’t matter , V or U .. all the same

the one thing is for sure , the economy will absolutely bounce back once this passes

 

[RU4Real]

Demand might be strong but can’t buy anything if you don’t have income.

From a macroeconomic perspective, "demand" implies means. Without means, there is no demand.

I apologize, it's a minor point and we all know what you're saying.

 

[RUevolution36]

From a macroeconomic perspective, "demand" implies means. Without means, there is no demand.

I apologize, it's a minor point and we all know what you're saying.

its the fallacy of supply-siders that demand will continually increase.

 

[Jtung230]

In the longer term it doesn’t matter , V or U .. all the same

the one thing is for sure , the economy will absolutely bounce back once this passes

But this I__________________________________I is no good. The reason US outperforms other countries is due to consumer spending. But if unemployment hits 10-15%, we are in trouble. It becomes very circular.

 

[hankee18]

And how does your plan address limiting transmission?

Limiting transmission is basically impossible at this point if, as the experts claim, 'we're all going to get it'. No need to take the economy down with it.

Right now were doing both and that wont work

 

[RU4Real]

But this I__________________________________I is no good. The reason US outperforms other countries is due to consumer spending. But if unemployment hits 10-15%, we are in trouble. It becomes very circular.

Unemployment is at 10-15% already.

The fed numbers come out next Thursday. It's gonna be one hell of a blow.

 

[Jtung230]

Unemployment is at 10-15% already.

The fed numbers come out next Thursday. It's gonna be one hell of a blow.

How much of that is non-hourly workers? That’s the part that scares me.

 

[Knightmoves]

I wonder about the psychological factors among consumers after we get through this health threat.

Do we really need to go to restaurants a few times a week, or have we learned that eating at home is equal to or better?

Now that the world economy has suffered from this health threat, are equities worth the same PE ratio they earned earlier? This type of health threat can happen again right?

Is online learning, especially at secondary and college level, a better investment than remote brick and mortar colleges that students have traditionally attended? Do parents need to pay a premium to send their child to Blacksburg, VA for undergrad?

How long before the cruise, hospitality and airline industries recover? Cruise industry seems most vulnerable imo.

 

[hankee18]

I wonder about the psychological factors among consumers after we get through this health threat.

Do we really need to go to restaurants a few times a week, or have we learned that eating at home is equal to or better?

Now that the world economy has suffered from this health threat, are equities worth the same PE ratio they earned earlier? This type of health threat can happen again right?

Is online learning, especially at secondary and college level, a better investment than remote brick and mortar colleges that students have traditionally attended? Do parents need to pay a premium to send their child to Blacksburg, VA for undergrad?

How long before the cruise, hospitality and airline industries recover? Cruise industry seems most vulnerable imo.

My wife pointed out earlier, with all this home-schooling going on is there a such thing as a snow day anymore?!

 

[RUschool]

I wonder about the psychological factors among consumers after we get through this health threat.

Do we really need to go to restaurants a few times a week, or have we learned that eating at home is equal to or better?

Now that the world economy has suffered from this health threat, are equities worth the same PE ratio they earned earlier? This type of health threat can happen again right?

Is online learning, especially at secondary and college level, a better investment than remote brick and mortar colleges that students have traditionally attended? Do parents need to pay a premium to send their child to Blacksburg, VA for undergrad?

How long before the cruise, hospitality and airline industries recover? Cruise industry seems most vulnerable imo.

I think people will eat at home more and also decide to save more for a rainy day which overall reduces consumption.

In the stock market, fewer companies will decide to repurchase their company stocks which slow the increase in stock prices. With individuals who have lost a consider amount in the equity market, their consumption will decrease especially retirees.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Demand might be strong but can’t buy anything if you don’t have income.

They will have plenty of money (see upcoming relief bill) and will have their jobs back quickly because of demand. This is not an economic problem, it's a hysteria problem.

 

[RU4Real]

How much of that is non-hourly workers? That’s the part that scares me.

No idea. "Some, but not most" would be my guess.

 

[RU4Real]

They will have plenty of money (see upcoming relief bill) and will have their jobs back quickly because of demand. This is not an economic problem, it's a hysteria problem.

Sometimes I really wonder if you're remotely serious, or if you suffer from something.

Who is going to "have plenty of money"? The upcoming relief bill that you speak of, at best, gives people a couple grand. How's about a challenge - you give up all of your disposable family income except for $2000, for the next 3 months, and we'll see how much consumer demand you generate.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Male Dems don't like V

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

Male Dems don't like V

Did you sleep through the 90s, buddy?

 

[Jtung230]

Personally, I have been cost avg down in stocks. But I’m going to rotate into fixed income instead. Bought preferred stock at double digit yield.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Sometimes I really wonder if you're remotely serious, or if you suffer from something.

Who is going to "have plenty of money"? The upcoming relief bill that you speak of, at best, gives people a couple grand. How's about a challenge - you give up all of your disposable family income except for $2000, for the next 3 months, and we'll see how much consumer demand you generate.

Plenty of industries are doing fine. More than enough people will have money to generate demand to get the others back to work.

 

[RU4Real]

Plenty of industries are doing fine. More than enough people will have money to generate demand to get the others back to work.

But not quickly.

By the time this thing is over, unemployment will be over 20%. It's impossible to have a steep recovery from a 20% unemployment rate. Literally impossible.

You need to put down the kool-aid and embrace reality. Otherwise you are destined to disappoint the people who depend on you.

 

[needmorecowbell]

Limiting transmission is basically impossible at this point if, as the experts claim, 'we're all going to get it'. No need to take the economy down with it.

Right now were doing both and that wont work

And if the hospitals can't handle the high sick numbers? Should we just accept a higher death rate? It seems like we can't have one with out the other.

 

[Knightmoves]

And if the hospitals can't handle the high sick numbers? Should we just accept a higher death rate? It seems like we can't have one with out the other.

That seems like an outcome of going back to work.

Arent 80% of deaths over 70-75 years old?

 

[Jtung230]

But not quickly.

By the time this thing is over, unemployment will be over 20%. It's impossible to have a steep recovery from a 20% unemployment rate. Literally impossible.

You need to put down the kool-aid and embrace reality. Otherwise you are destined to disappoint the people who depend on you.

Don’t think we are there yet. But if things continue, more companies will have to trim. I think most companies are planning for late April or early May return. If we are all still working from home after that, I will get ugly.

 

[T2Kplus10]

But not quickly.

By the time this thing is over, unemployment will be over 20%. It's impossible to have a steep recovery from a 20% unemployment rate. Literally impossible.

You need to put down the kool-aid and embrace reality. Otherwise you are destined to disappoint the people who depend on you.

I bet it will be quick. Lots of folks with money can't spend it now. Demand is building. Consumer spending will explode once the hysteria is gone.

 

[Jtung230]

I bet it will be quick. Lots of folks with money can't spend it now. Demand is building. Consumer spending will explode once the hysteria is gone.

People that have money just lost a lot of money. Don’t think they are thinking spend spend spend.

 

[WhiteBus]

They will have plenty of money (see upcoming relief bill) and will have their jobs back quickly because of demand. This is not an economic problem, it's a hysteria problem.

A lot of small businesses will fail. How many small businesses got bailouts the last time. ZERO
What upcoming relief bill? They keep talking about it but so far nothing.

 

[ru109]

I think people will eat at home more and also decide to save more for a rainy day which overall reduces consumption.

In the stock market, fewer companies will decide to repurchase their company stocks which slow the increase in stock prices. With individuals who have lost a consider amount in the equity market, their consumption will decrease especially retirees.

I totally disagree. Companies will continue to buy back stocks because it's helps the corporate executives, and people never learn about having to save money and once they are allowed back outside again will spend like they did before. But everyone is entitled to their own opinions.

 

[MCY]

I bet it will be quick. Lots of folks with money can't spend it now. Demand is building. Consumer spending will explode once the hysteria is gone.

Define quick - is that 3 months, 9 months or 24 months? Demand is building, of course, but only about 5% of the population will be in a position to act on the building demand while the other 95% are seeing pay cuts, loss of job, etc. They still have demand, just not the ability to execute which is happening all over the place with consumers and small to mid-sized businesses. IMHO, "quick" is 36 to 48 months as measured by GDP, not the stock market.

 

[e5fdny]

I wonder about the psychological factors among consumers after we get through this health threat.

Do we really need to go to restaurants a few times a week, or have we learned that eating at home is equal to or better?

Now that the world economy has suffered from this health threat, are equities worth the same PE ratio they earned earlier? This type of health threat can happen again right?

Is online learning, especially at secondary and college level, a better investment than remote brick and mortar colleges that students have traditionally attended? Do parents need to pay a premium to send their child to Blacksburg, VA for undergrad?

How long before the cruise, hospitality and airline industries recover? Cruise industry seems most vulnerable imo.

I think people will eat at home more and also decide to save more for a rainy day which overall reduces consumption.

In the stock market, fewer companies will decide to repurchase their company stocks which slow the increase in stock prices. With individuals who have lost a consider amount in the equity market, their consumption will decrease especially retirees.

We won’t go out every night but will make it a point to go the places we like and have been good to us in the past. And since my wife teaches, to give her a little break too. I knew she was really good but didn’t know how good until I saw her balance it all up front and in person.

Same for services...planning on a few semi-major projects to get my friends the needed funds so they can bid on other jobs.

As for my portfolio I always reinvest my dividends anyway so hopefully the bounce back sooner than later.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Define quick - is that 3 months, 9 months or 24 months? Demand is building, of course, but only about 5% of the population will be in a position to act on the building demand while the other 95% are seeing pay cuts, loss of job, etc. They still have demand, just not the ability to execute which is happening all over the place with consumers and small to mid-sized businesses. IMHO, "quick" is 36 to 48 months as measured by GDP, not the stock market.

2-3 months after the hysteria is gone. The economy and life will be back to normal.

 

[RU_DIO]

And if the hospitals can't handle the high sick numbers? Should we just accept a higher death rate? It seems like we can't have one with out the other.

Just talked to uncle and cousins in Italy. As reported hospitals are completely overrun. I can't see people going back to work for a long while. Scary.

 

[hankee18]

And if the hospitals can't handle the high sick numbers? Should we just accept a higher death rate? It seems like we can't have one with out the other.

Given the circumstances I feel this is our best option to survive this and limit the economic fallout. What we MUST do is increase our capacity to identify the sick and treat, raise that blue line on the flatten the curve chart. Then continue limiting high risk peoples exposure. Unfortunately, yes, we will have some collateral damage. I fully accept I or someone I love may be a casualty in all this.

I'm worried about getting sick but I'm equally worried about life after this - the majority of us are going to survive

 

[tom1944]

I wonder about the psychological factors among consumers after we get through this health threat.

Do we really need to go to restaurants a few times a week, or have we learned that eating at home is equal to or better?

Now that the world economy has suffered from this health threat, are equities worth the same PE ratio they earned earlier? This type of health threat can happen again right?

Is online learning, especially at secondary and college level, a better investment than remote brick and mortar colleges that students have traditionally attended? Do parents need to pay a premium to send their child to Blacksburg, VA for undergrad?

How long before the cruise, hospitality and airline industries recover? Cruise industry seems most vulnerable imo.

You also might not go because who knows if you will get the virus

 

[REDRICH65]

Dem Senators are refusing to approve stimulus bill for workers. Can’t believe shat they want to stuff in bill. Millions of people need their paycheck. They will push this country into recession or worse. Call your Senators inN.J.

 

[Jtung230]

Given the circumstances I feel this is our best option to survive this and limit the economic fallout. What we MUST do is increase our capacity to identify the sick and treat, raise that blue line on the flatten the curve chart. Then continue limiting high risk peoples exposure. Unfortunately, yes, we will have some collateral damage. I fully accept I or someone I love may be a casualty in all this.

I'm worried about getting sick but I'm equally worried about life after this - the majority of us are going to survive

You might survive but could require hospitalization. Just means a big medical bill and no work. Does not help.

 

[RutHut_rivals]

Male Dems don't like V