OT: Economic Recovery

[needmorecowbell]

That seems like an outcome of going back to work.

Arent 80% of deaths over 70-75 years old?

Not sure what the %’s are but the US has the one of the higher death rates for under 50.

 

[Roy_Faulker]

Unemployment is at 10-15% already.

The fed numbers come out next Thursday. It's gonna be one hell of a blow.

And that’s not the entire population of eligible workers right? Recall debate during recent administrations about having people not actively seeking work to not be counted on the rolls...if true means the rate is even higher.

 

[ashokan]

Not sure what the %’s are but the US has the one of the higher death rates for under 50.

Diabetes is a problem for people with CV. Diabetes is large problem in black population. I would expect to see US figures skew younger.

Last year I realized I knew 7 guys who were dead from high school football team. They were not that old so it was puzzling. Then I realized 5 were black and had diabetes

 

[RU05]

And that’s not the entire population of eligible workers right? Recall debate during recent administrations about having people not actively seeking work to not be counted on the rolls...if true means the rate is even higher.

While you are not wrong, that is always the case.

 

[mychaljohn]

And if the hospitals can't handle the high sick numbers? Should we just accept a higher death rate? It seems like we can't have one with out the other.

That is the very argument they are making...

 

[rurahrah000]

Republicans who criticized TART and auto bailouts of billions of dollars under Democratic controlled government are realizing that it is hard to let the free market do its thing when they are in charge. Now they want to do bailouts in the trillions.

With bailouts now under Democrats and Republican governments, we are inching closer to socialism and the end of the free markets.

 

[Jtung230]

Diabetes is a problem for people with CV. Diabetes is large problem in black population. I would expect to see US figures skew younger.

Last year I realized I knew 7 guys who were dead from high school football team. They were not that old so it was puzzling. Then I realized 5 were black and had diabetes

It’s a large problem with people in the south.

 

[ruready07]

Economic recovery is the topic

The critical question is

are we looking at 4-6 weeks of TEMPORARY unemployment due to the stay home order....of which most get back to work or ...and unemployment goes back To 6-7%. Most People can survive the 4-6 hick-up with income turndown and will, by Christmas, be close to resuming their normal spending patterns in 2021

OR

Are we looking at a long stretch of required business shut does...where 20-30% of people miss 4-6 months of income. That would knock down total consumption across the board because that type of slow down would be felt in all sectors and slow down most sectors ...and just generate less across the board. That feels and smells like at least 12-18 moth recession

I could see many companies realizing they can operate their businesses in a “leaner” fashion and not rehiring a percentage of their employees back.

Hopefully enough new business emerges from other areas and serves as a landing spot for the newly unemployed.

unfortunately, the feeling is that the government is willing to write checks to us for staying home... this will likely get milked further even when people are able to work again.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

It’s a large problem with people in the south.

South Philly

 

[ruready07]

I’d like to hear something about rewarding those who continue to make their payments and pay bills. They will be the ones who keep this economy from grinding to a complete halt and they should be acknowledged.
if all we talk about is stimulus and bailout, we will be encouraging people to throw in the towel and put their hand out

 

[rurahrah000]

I’d like to hear something about rewarding those who continue to make their payments and pay bills. They will be the ones who keep this economy from grinding to a complete halt and they should be acknowledged.
if all we talk about is stimulus and bailout, we will be encouraging people to throw in the towel and put their hand out

Henceforth, we are headed towards socialism. AOC 2032!!!

 

[RUevolution36]

Anything that disproportionately impacts a protected class (which includes people over 40) is illegal. It's really this simple. Those in protected classes (age, gender, and race) can't be laid off in any higher % than those in unprotected classes. All info on demos of layoffs are given to employees. Cross this line and you can set your watch to how quickly the lawsuits come.

At least, this is how the ethical and noble pharma industry does it.

How do you explain the "hand raisers" that big pharma does?

 

[LC-88]

Economic recovery is the topic

The critical question is

are we looking at 4-6 weeks of TEMPORARY unemployment due to the stay home order....of which most get back to work or ...and unemployment goes back To 6-7%. Most People can survive the 4-6 hick-up with income turndown and will, by Christmas, be close to resuming their normal spending patterns in 2021

OR

Are we looking at a long stretch of required business shut does...where 20-30% of people miss 4-6 months of income. That would knock down total consumption across the board because that type of slow down would be felt in all sectors and slow down most sectors ...and just generate less across the board. That feels and smells like at least 12-18 moth recession

#2

 

[RUevolution36]

I’d like to hear something about rewarding those who continue to make their payments and pay bills. They will be the ones who keep this economy from grinding to a complete halt and they should be acknowledged.
if all we talk about is stimulus and bailout, we will be encouraging people to throw in the towel and put their hand out

You do realize that the direct payments to people stop once this crisis is over, right? That's the whole premise of the plan.

 

[LC-88]

Anything that disproportionately impacts a protected class (which includes people over 40) is illegal. It's really this simple. Those in protected classes (age, gender, and race) can't be laid off in any higher % than those in unprotected classes. All info on demos of layoffs are given to employees. Cross this line and you can set your watch to how quickly the lawsuits come.

At least, this is how the ethical and noble pharma industry does it.

Over 40 is a protected class on paper only.

 

[ruready07]

You do realize that the direct payments to people stop once this crisis is over, right? That's the whole premise of the plan.

It’s too difficult to have a hard line on when this is over. Even when it’s done, people will be dragging their feet and looking for more handouts (this is when the politicians will really get sleezy)

 

[DHajekRC84]

It's a mistake to simply lay this at the feet of Senate Democrats. There's plenty of stupid Republican pork that got stuffed into that bill, as well. Abstinence education in public schools? Really? You think that's how we should be spending our time (and money) in the present environment?

I'd like to see a list of all that crap in there. Cause if the R's did this too they should all be called out. Shamefull of all parties or anyone that included such garbage.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Stick to the topic at hand. Nobody said anything about "layoffs" in general. The topic is about illegally targeting older people.

I'm pretty much on your side on these topics but I can attest to my experience in Corp. and to discussions I have had with my friends also in Mid-Managemnt it is certainly a practice. Selective pruning is real and you can do little to nothing about it. They find a way.
Long ago Human Resources was about advocating for the emplyees. It is now a Tool aligned with leadership to get what they want done , done.

 

[T2Kplus10]

How do you explain the "hand raisers" that big pharma does?

I assume you are talking about "voluntary" severance packages? Those are incredibly generous and definitely attract takers of all demos. Voluntary decision making is fine, nothing wrong with it. I was at my first company for 10 years, which lost its 2 main products to patent expirations. Took a voluntary package to leave and started at my next company 2 weeks later. My daughter's private K-12 and college was funded in one shot. Thank you pharma!

 

[DHajekRC84]

Economic recovery is the topic

The critical question is

are we looking at 4-6 weeks of TEMPORARY unemployment due to the stay home order....of which most get back to work or ...and unemployment goes back To 6-7%. Most People can survive the 4-6 hick-up with income turndown and will, by Christmas, be close to resuming their normal spending patterns in 2021

OR

Are we looking at a long stretch of required business shut does...where 20-30% of people miss 4-6 months of income. That would knock down total consumption across the board because that type of slow down would be felt in all sectors and slow down most sectors ...and just generate less across the board. That feels and smells like at least 12-18 moth recession

Thanks for framing it out nicely. What I think is missing is that in scenerio 1, people will get paid unemployment AND gov.t checks AND maybe even income continuation fully covered if that is indeed in the Bill. That's MORE money IN per person than out.

My bet is there are A LOT of small companies and restuarants telling their employees...take those 4-6 weeks, go claim UEI and we'll see you then. Nobody is going to want to doing another search and re-train folks.

It has to be much more like #1 than #2 or we're totally screwed.

 

[RUforJERSEY]

What does that even mean

It means that here, as always he shows himself to be an idiot.

 

[DHajekRC84]

I could see many companies realizing they can operate their businesses in a “leaner” fashion and not rehiring a percentage of their employees back.

Hopefully enough new business emerges from other areas and serves as a landing spot for the newly unemployed.

unfortunately, the feeling is that the government is willing to write checks to us for staying home... this will likely get milked further even when people are able to work again.

This is true and what all of them were doing before the eco. boom. But there was a reason the UE rate was 3.5% and Help Wanted signs were everywhere and even though retired still getting 10 LinkedIn Views per week.

Productivity targets have always been there, but it reached a point (and hopefully will again) where you can't get there without the labor.

 

[DHajekRC84]

It means that here, as always he shows himself to be an idiot.

Please...all of you knock off with the name calling. Everyone's an "idiot" depending on which side of the line your on. This is actually a pretty decent thread until you get to that level and this become CE Forum material. Thank you. Carry on.

 

[RUschool]

I'm pretty much on your side on these topics but I can attest to my experience in Corp. and to discussions I have had with my friends also in Mid-Managemnt it is certainly a practice. Selective pruning is real and you can do little to nothing about it. They find a way.
Long ago Human Resources was about advocating for the emplyees. It is now a Tool aligned with leadership to get what they want done , done.

It’s a real thing. I replaced a 30 years plus employee labeled as a terrible employee and slow learner. He was about to be terminated until they had a HR meeting and his lawyer was in attendance. I later realized how bad of employee could he had been working there 30 years? Later I became a bad employee when I reached 50. Bad reviews for 3-4 years so if they needed to terminate you later they had the proof on file. Directors were laid off when they reached 55 and they went quietly with their severance and pension and their multi million assets. Actually good for the mobility of the next generation.

 

[T2Kplus10]

It’s a real thing. I replaced a 30 years plus employee labeled as a terrible employee and slow learner. He was about to be terminated until they had a HR meeting and his lawyer was in attendance. I later realized how bad of employee could he had been working there 30 years? Later I became a bad employee when I reached 50. Bad reviews for 3-4 years so if they needed to terminate you later they had the proof on file. Directors were laid off when they reached 55 and they went quietly with their severance and pension and their multi million assets. Actually good for the mobility of the next generation.

Lots of conclusions you are jumping to with this post. And of course, your past perceived personal experience doesn't have anything to do with today.

 

[albanyknight]

Up this way they are basically giving away cars. No payments for a year and then no interest.

When this is all said and done, I think people will flock back to coffee places, restaurants, deli's etc. And people who put off some big purchases will make them. But this is going to force a lot of people to do what they should of been doing in the first place...............live within their means.

The larger issue is what happens to the value of the dollar after we have printed trillions in fiat dollars backed by nothing?

 

[RUschool]

Lots of conclusions you are jumping to with this post. And of course, your past perceived personal experience doesn't have anything to do with today.

Not all companies are like that but the high powered companies that want the best of the best subscribe to this method. In the Big 4, you either keep moving up or out. It’s common knowledge. Make room for the superstars or they will leave the organization.

My prior company wasn’t always this way until there was a change of management and style.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Lots of conclusions you are jumping to with this post. And of course, your past perceived personal experience doesn't have anything to do with today.

I will support his scenerio as exactlly how I observed it and my friends did as well...across 3 Top Corps. a BIG Pharma, A BIG CPG, and a Big M&A Rating Company. 2 of us recently retired and the other soon to be.
Were deals made to get people out? You bet. There's always a legal no lawsuit form to be signed.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Up this way they are basically giving away cars. No payments for a year and then no interest.

When this is all said and done, I think people will flock back to coffee places, restaurants, deli's etc. And people who put off some big purchases will make them. But this is going to force a lot of people to do what they should of been doing in the first place...............live within their means.

The larger issue is what happens to the value of the dollar after we have printed trillions in fiat dollars backed by nothing?

My lease is running out soon and realized I may now be able to negotiate a heck of a deal.
I'm assume living within means doesn't last too long. Unfortunately.

 

[e5fdny]

Up this way they are basically giving away cars. No payments for a year and then no interest.

When this is all said and done, I think people will flock back to coffee places, restaurants, deli's etc. And people who put off some big purchases will make them. But this is going to force a lot of people to do what they should of been doing in the first place...............live within their means.

The larger issue is what happens to the value of the dollar after we have printed trillions in fiat dollars backed by nothing?

So do I. And yes, that is a good thing.

 

[RU4Real]

Anything that disproportionately impacts a protected class (which includes people over 40) is illegal. It's really this simple. Those in protected classes (age, gender, and race) can't be laid off in any higher % than those in unprotected classes. All info on demos of layoffs are given to employees. Cross this line and you can set your watch to how quickly the lawsuits come.

At least, this is how the ethical and noble pharma industry does it.

Show your work.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Not all companies are like that but the high powered companies that want the best of the best subscribe to this method. In the Big 4, you either keep moving up or out. It’s common knowledge. Make room for the superstars or they will leave the organization.

My prior company wasn’t always this way until there was a change of management and style.

Overall, I agree with what you described here, but it has nothing to do with age. Anyone can be a superstar.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I will support his scenerio as exactlly how I observed it and my friends did as well...across 3 Top Corps. a BIG Pharma, A BIG CPG, and a Big M&A Rating Company. 2 of us recently retired and the other soon to be.
Were deals made to get people out? You bet. There's always a legal no lawsuit form to be signed.

Voluntary packages and actions are perfectly acceptable. However, they need to be offered without discrimination to age.

 

[RUschool]

Overall, I agree with what you described here, but it has nothing to do with age. Anyone can be a superstar.

In the past, I recommended on the board that people have their retirement money ready by their fifties and not by their sixties. It might mean squeezing your lifestyle a little more.

 

[RU4Real]

Up this way they are basically giving away cars. No payments for a year and then no interest.

When this is all said and done, I think people will flock back to coffee places, restaurants, deli's etc. And people who put off some big purchases will make them. But this is going to force a lot of people to do what they should of been doing in the first place...............live within their means.

The larger issue is what happens to the value of the dollar after we have printed trillions in fiat dollars backed by nothing?

Why would anyone with a brain take a car loan with deferred payments? It's a guarantee that the car will be under water for the entire life of the loan - a clever marketing trick, if you're a manufacturer. Instant repeat business.

 

[T2Kplus10]

In the past, I recommended on the board that people have their retirement money ready by their fifties and not by their sixties. It might mean squeezing your lifestyle a little more.

This is unnecessary for the vast majority of people/industries.

 

[JonathanAlan]

Demand might be strong but can’t buy anything if you don’t have income.

Dem Senators are refusing to approve stimulus bill for workers. Can’t believe shat they want to stuff in bill. Millions of people need their paycheck. They will push this country into recession or worse. Call your Senators inN.J.

Just disgusting and disgraceful that the Democratic party is blackmailing republicans and the country by demanding the bill include their wishlist socialist agenda as the price for passage.

 

[albanyknight]

Why would anyone with a brain take a car loan with deferred payments? It's a guarantee that the car will be under water for the entire life of the loan - a clever marketing trick, if you're a manufacturer. Instant repeat business.

I don't think they are. But as we both know, a lot of people don't think things out.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Voluntary packages and actions are perfectly acceptable. However, they need to be offered without discrimination to age.

They are usually based on Years of service and age. Something like 20-25 YOS and reaching 55 (or some combo of the two to hit 75?)
You're not getting younger employees qualified under those circumstances.
Listen, I've been in rooms where there is headcount engineering and modeling used to get "legal" and meet targets using "Industry Best Practices". I'll just leave it at that.

 

[T2Kplus10]

They are usually based on Years of service and age. Something like 20-25 YOS and reaching 55 (or some combo of the two to hit 75?)
You're not getting younger employees qualified under those circumstances.
Listen, I've been in rooms where there is headcount engineering and modeling used to get "legal" and meet targets using "Industry Best Practices". I'll just leave it at that.

Voluntary packages are fine, it's still the employee's decision regardless of incentives. I've lead a few forced layoff processes for my department. I never designed policies, but had to implement them. Legal and compliance were crystal clear on lines we could not cross and age was definitely one of them.