Enthusiasm and confidence within my industry and the related fields skyrocketing. Could be a hell of a ride.
OT: Dow hits 20,000
- Thread starter thatsbaseball
- Start date
Ya know, I don`t so much resent them collecting the tax as I do turning it over the the 17ing idiots (our legislature) who are going to spend it. The money could be put to good use.....by the right people.
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Since they have a major warehouse in TX, I've been paying tax on about 75% of my Amazon orders for the last couple of years.
Prolly not a bad place to be, coach for your assumed life stage by me (retired)
You may be able to earn a little something on your cash in the near future.
Also, you write calls don't you?
You may be able to earn a little something on your cash in the near future.
Also, you write calls don't you?
Exactly right. I knew it was coming eventually since the state needs new revenue amid all the recent budget cuts. However, to turn this new money over to the same dopes who got the state into this situation does not inspire much confidence.
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We do deal with energy folks. We`re starting to see the first pulse since 2014 with some pipe liners (Not the XL pipeline) but nothing from the fracking/exploration segment at this point. I think energy is about to get active but the degree going to depend on how many buttons the Saudis are willing to push to keep oil prices down below our break even production levels.
Yep, I like to sell puts but haven't been doing it with the VIX where it is,
doesn't make sense to me. I am kind of holding on for higher rates as you say, muni's might start looking pretty good by the end of the year.
Should probably be buying puts right now.
doesn't make sense to me. I am kind of holding on for higher rates as you say, muni's might start looking pretty good by the end of the year.
Should probably be buying puts right now.
Do you pay attention to inventory levels?
That's why I've been bearish on oil for about to be 3 years now. Not as bearish now, but neutral at best. I see downward pressure on prices right now, unless the dollar retraces.
First 4 weeks of January have increased gas stockpiles by over 25mil barrels.
Oil and Gas stocks are flat to up over last year. Supply remains high. It's a supply issue not a demand issue.
When OPEC "cut," shale increased production. Rig counts have been going way up. US oil production bottomed a few month's ago.
I see the oil market balanced around $50.
That's why I've been bearish on oil for about to be 3 years now. Not as bearish now, but neutral at best. I see downward pressure on prices right now, unless the dollar retraces.
First 4 weeks of January have increased gas stockpiles by over 25mil barrels.
Oil and Gas stocks are flat to up over last year. Supply remains high. It's a supply issue not a demand issue.
When OPEC "cut," shale increased production. Rig counts have been going way up. US oil production bottomed a few month's ago.
I see the oil market balanced around $50.
Yep. Betting on increased and profitable US oil production is still pretty precarious because of what's going on supply-wise. I grew up with and know a lot of folks who are employed in the industry.
It started in Alabama in November. Up until then, you just had to pay the tax on your own on your annual state tax return, and I'm sure everybody reported all they'd spent .... **
It depends on who the online provider is though as to whether the tax is actually collected. I just did an order and the tax came in at zero, but most now collect tax. As I recall, Amazon collects 8% and gets to keep 2%. And it doesn't matter if you live in the sticks or in a city where taxes are higher ... it's all the same. So some people may actually be paying more tax than they would by buying locally.
It depends on who the online provider is though as to whether the tax is actually collected. I just did an order and the tax came in at zero, but most now collect tax. As I recall, Amazon collects 8% and gets to keep 2%. And it doesn't matter if you live in the sticks or in a city where taxes are higher ... it's all the same. So some people may actually be paying more tax than they would by buying locally.
I got this email today. I'm not in the oil business, but I am in the commercial real estate business in Houston. So I follow it pretty closely. Here you go...
· Jeff Currie is the Global Head of Commodities Research in the Global Investment Research (GIR) Division of GS
· Interesting perspectives:
o Positive outlook on commodities not driven by OPEC cuts. They would argue that OPEC is simply taking advantage of where we are in the business cycle. A rebalanced market was likely to occur with or without cuts at the end of this year; OPEC just brought it forward.
o We have seen a stronger cyclical backdrop against a lack of investment in capacity over the last three years for energy, which is creating tightness in the market and upward pressure.
o Similarly, he believes Trump’s policies will create frictions in the market that will add policy-driven inflationary pressures to the economically-driven inflationary pressures they are already seeing. Similar to the OPEC response, the Goldman house view is that these cyclical, economic inflationary pressures on energy would have happened with or without Trump – but his policies should reinforce that inflationary pressure.
o More on OPEC cuts – Gulf States (Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar) = 100% compliance. Other countries such as Libya and Iraq are increasing production, so we are on track for 85% compliance with the cuts.
o How is the US responding to the cuts and rising oil prices? With more rigs. This response from US shale could keep a lid on pricing under $60 through 2018. [This is likely why you are seeing the land rush in the Permian Basin; low-cost shale there might be the only feasible play if these prices will persist for another few years.]
o We should also see lower volatility in oil prices in the near-term, which is positive news.
o Goldman sees quarter-over-quarter increase this year of 500,000 barrels per day of production growth in the US [which will bring us almost back to peak US production that we saw April 2015 within the first half of 2017 and we may surpass that this year and next year. The US rig count remains way below peak.]
o The Chinese PMI was at the highest level it has been in 4 ½ years, indicating potential manufacturing momentum in China supporting demand growth for oil. More positive comments on China: it has been almost a year since the Chinese government’s policy-driven credit stimulus to promote infrastructure spending will take effect, which should also show up as demand growth this year. It takes a while for property demand to catch up, which we could also see this year and in 2018.
In summary, a few key themes to watch:
· Stabilizing oil prices around $55/bbl in 2017/2018, maybe not as high as we would want but less volatile
· A continued land rush to the Permian as E&P companies search for affordable shale plays
· A modest recovery in the Chinese economy, mostly due to policy moves enacted last year
· Jeff Currie is the Global Head of Commodities Research in the Global Investment Research (GIR) Division of GS
· Interesting perspectives:
o Positive outlook on commodities not driven by OPEC cuts. They would argue that OPEC is simply taking advantage of where we are in the business cycle. A rebalanced market was likely to occur with or without cuts at the end of this year; OPEC just brought it forward.
o We have seen a stronger cyclical backdrop against a lack of investment in capacity over the last three years for energy, which is creating tightness in the market and upward pressure.
o Similarly, he believes Trump’s policies will create frictions in the market that will add policy-driven inflationary pressures to the economically-driven inflationary pressures they are already seeing. Similar to the OPEC response, the Goldman house view is that these cyclical, economic inflationary pressures on energy would have happened with or without Trump – but his policies should reinforce that inflationary pressure.
o More on OPEC cuts – Gulf States (Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar) = 100% compliance. Other countries such as Libya and Iraq are increasing production, so we are on track for 85% compliance with the cuts.
o How is the US responding to the cuts and rising oil prices? With more rigs. This response from US shale could keep a lid on pricing under $60 through 2018. [This is likely why you are seeing the land rush in the Permian Basin; low-cost shale there might be the only feasible play if these prices will persist for another few years.]
o We should also see lower volatility in oil prices in the near-term, which is positive news.
o Goldman sees quarter-over-quarter increase this year of 500,000 barrels per day of production growth in the US [which will bring us almost back to peak US production that we saw April 2015 within the first half of 2017 and we may surpass that this year and next year. The US rig count remains way below peak.]
o The Chinese PMI was at the highest level it has been in 4 ½ years, indicating potential manufacturing momentum in China supporting demand growth for oil. More positive comments on China: it has been almost a year since the Chinese government’s policy-driven credit stimulus to promote infrastructure spending will take effect, which should also show up as demand growth this year. It takes a while for property demand to catch up, which we could also see this year and in 2018.
In summary, a few key themes to watch:
· Stabilizing oil prices around $55/bbl in 2017/2018, maybe not as high as we would want but less volatile
· A continued land rush to the Permian as E&P companies search for affordable shale plays
· A modest recovery in the Chinese economy, mostly due to policy moves enacted last year
Go back & look at Goldman's track record on oil past 2yrs if you want amusement
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