OT: Declining High School Enrollment in MS

[johnson86-1]

https://mississippitoday.org/2026/05/17/mississippi-student-enrollment/

Somewhat surprised by how bad some of these numbers are. Not surprising that JPS enrollment is cratering and some of these rural districts, but surprised that Ocean Springs hasn't grown. I guess they just aren't attracting families? Or are they losing that many to private schools?

Going to be interesting to see what happens in the Fall 27/Spring 28 school year, when the education freedom tax credit goes into effect. I would assume enough people will contribute $1,700 to that program that it will be a meaningful number of kids that are able to escape bad school districts (or just bad situations in otherwise decent school districts). Something like 35-40% of Mississippi households have a high enough net income tax liability to participate (which means you need to pay net $2,000 in taxes, which is insane that that is less than half the state). Let's say 10% of the eligible households participate, that'd be up to $60M (after the max 10% going to administrative expenses and overhead) to fund scholarships for elementary and high school students across the state. Not sure how those scholarships have to be prioritized (or are allowed to be prioritized), but that's probably 2% of the public school students in the state that could get the equivalent of a scholarship equal to the median Mississippi private school tuition. Or 4% if their goal was to do half the median tuition.

ETA: Also crazy how much Jackson Public schools lost. I assume some of that is to charter schools? But shows you just how bad of a deal Jackson public schools are, in that their enrollment is plummeting while the MSA population as a whole has been growing, if somewhat slowly.

Jackson Public School District	29,488	16,968	−42.46%

 

[dorndawg]

There's just less elementary & high school aged people coming up - it's a raw numbers story, not just where they are going to school. We have a huge demographics cliff hurtling at us in this country and most of our current policies have it floored in terms of making that worse.

 

[615dawg]

The amount of young people that have fallen for the no kids propaganda is going to be the catalyst for the biggest mental health crisis in world history.

People are going to freak out in about 20 years when they discover they are alone for life.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

How many of the schools with high negative growth fall into Bennie Thomason’s district?

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

People are going to freak out in about 20 years when they discover they are alone for life.

Freak out, or

 

[johnson86-1]

The amount of young people that have fallen for the no kids propaganda is going to be the catalyst for the biggest mental health crisis in world history.

People are going to freak out in about 20 years when they discover they are alone for life.

Wait until the people that had kids and the kids themselves realize how badly they’re being screwed by Medicare/social security and decide to vote as a bloc.

 

[ckDOG]

Wait until the people that had kids and the kids themselves realize how badly they’re being screwed by Medicare/social security and decide to vote as a bloc.

I don't think how they vote is going to be the ruling class's biggest worry once the Medicare/SS chickens come home to roost.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

The amount of young people that have fallen for the no kids propaganda is going to be the catalyst for the biggest mental health crisis in world history.

People are going to freak out in about 20 years when they discover they are alone for life.

I’m single, not married, not expecting to marry, and have no children

What you talk about is my life

I told my sister who has said many times that she wants nothing to do with the family land that she and her kids are my heirs so she has to deal with it when I’m gone

She’s a boomer so you’d think she’d know you can’t always get what you want…

 

[johnson86-1]

I don't think how they vote is going to be the ruling class's biggest worry once the Medicare/SS chickens come home to roost.

Well, it won’t be a problem if they vote. If it’s just the elderly that didn’t have kids that get hit, that’s perfectly fine from a stability perspective. The danger will be if the working age crowd can’t fix it with voting and then you have a much more dangerous portion of the population pissed off.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

https://mississippitoday.org/2026/05/17/mississippi-student-enrollment/

Somewhat surprised by how bad some of these numbers are. Not surprising that JPS enrollment is cratering and some of these rural districts, but surprised that Ocean Springs hasn't grown. I guess they just aren't attracting families? Or are they losing that many to private schools?

Going to be interesting to see what happens in the Fall 27/Spring 28 school year, when the education freedom tax credit goes into effect. I would assume enough people will contribute $1,700 to that program that it will be a meaningful number of kids that are able to escape bad school districts (or just bad situations in otherwise decent school districts). Something like 35-40% of Mississippi households have a high enough net income tax liability to participate (which means you need to pay net $2,000 in taxes, which is insane that that is less than half the state). Let's say 10% of the eligible households participate, that'd be up to $60M (after the max 10% going to administrative expenses and overhead) to fund scholarships for elementary and high school students across the state. Not sure how those scholarships have to be prioritized (or are allowed to be prioritized), but that's probably 2% of the public school students in the state that could get the equivalent of a scholarship equal to the median Mississippi private school tuition. Or 4% if their goal was to do half the median tuition.

ETA: Also crazy how much Jackson Public schools lost. I assume some of that is to charter schools? But shows you just how bad of a deal Jackson public schools are, in that their enrollment is plummeting while the MSA population as a whole has been growing, if somewhat slowly.

Jackson Public School District	29,488	16,968	−42.46%

JPS is slowly closing down some schools but they have not embraced the consolidation that is needed given the current enrollment. Related, but not the same, 2026 is the start of the college enrollment cliff that has been much discussed. The 2008 - 2011 Great Recession had a huge impact on birth rates. It's expected to be a roughly 15 year event. Co-Pilot say:

2024–2025 → Peak / stable enrollment 2026–2027 → Decline begins (visible impact)
2028–2035 → Sustained contraction (highest risk period)
2035–2041 → New lower equilibrium (~16% below peak)

I saw another graph somewhere that had MS coming out 12% down. State and Ole Miss will be in the best positions to weather the storm statewide but community colleges, MUW, DSU, Valley, etc. will likely see some tough times.

 

[patdog]

JPS is slowly closing down some schools but they have not embraced the consolidation that is needed given the current enrollment. Related, but not the same, 2026 is the start of the college enrollment cliff that has been much discussed. The 2008 - 2011 Great Recession had a huge impact on birth rates. It's expected to be a roughly 15 year event. Co-Pilot say:

2024–2025 → Peak / stable enrollment 2026–2027 → Decline begins (visible impact)
2028–2035 → Sustained contraction (highest risk period)
2035–2041 → New lower equilibrium (~16% below peak)

I saw another graph somewhere that had MS coming out 12% down. State and Ole Miss will be in the best positions to weather the storm statewide but community colleges, MUW, DSU, Valley, etc. will likely see some tough times.

They're doing far too little closing and consolidation. They've gone from 7 high schools to 6 while losing over 40% of their students. They need to close 2 more, but the one that needs closing the most will never happen politically.

 

[615dawg]

They're doing far too little closing and consolidation. They've gone from 7 high schools to 6 while losing over 40% of their students. They need to close 2 more, but the one that needs closing the most will never happen politically.

They could go to three if we're being honest. Instead they are trying to make Murrah smaller to get them out of 7A.

The battle that will be coming up in 2028-2030 that involves closing or consolidating Valley is going to be a shitstorm. Legislators know its coming and they keep kicking the can down the road.

Valley has $75 million in debt and only $45 million in assets and have a $7 million annual operating loss. Their budget is $65 million and $31 million of it is from the state. Collecting only $11 million a year in tuition.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

I’m single, not married, not expecting to marry, and have no children

What you talk about is my life

I told my sister who has said many times that she wants nothing to do with the family land that she and her kids are my heirs so she has to deal with it when I’m gone

She’s a boomer so you’d think she’d know you can’t always get what you want…

I'll step up and take on the inheritance. Pre-RIP to you.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

They're doing far too little closing and consolidation. They've gone from 7 high schools to 6 while losing over 40% of their students. They need to close 2 more, but the one that needs closing the most will never happen politically.

Not enough yet, but they did close a total of 11 schools in 23/24 and consolidated 2 others. I guess I'm just pleased when I see some necessary consolidation.

 

[POTUS]

I'll step up and take on the inheritance. Pre-RIP to you.

Bro, you're not getting that inheritance on All-Conference status. Step your game up!

 

[OG Goat Holder]

So many people think 'good schools' are what make a town or area nice. Nope.

'Good schools' are a product of a town or area doing well. So, you can't consolidate and make them better. You consolidate when things are going bad. Thus consolidation is not a matter of growth, it's simply a necessary measure to take in an already bad situation.

MS is losing students because the population is going down.

 

[Xenomorph]

The amount of young people that have fallen for the no kids propaganda is going to be the catalyst for the biggest mental health crisis in world history.

People are going to freak out in about 20 years when they discover they are alone for life.

 

[RocketDawg]

They're doing far too little closing and consolidation. They've gone from 7 high schools to 6 while losing over 40% of their students. They need to close 2 more, but the one that needs closing the most will never happen politically.

When I was in high school (early-mid '60s) Jackson had 3 white high schools (don't know how many black ones) and Meridian had 1 white, 1 black. School population then was higher than it is now, maybe by a factor of 2. Our class size was typically at least 30, even in elementary.

High school was only grades 11 & 12. Junior high was grades 7-10.

 

[L4Dawg]

A significant portion of the losses are homeschooled.

 

[Villagedawg]

The amount of young people that have fallen for the no kids propaganda is going to be the catalyst for the biggest mental health crisis in world history.

People are going to freak out in about 20 years when they discover they are alone for life.

Yeah. I’m afraid that’s what my two prime kid having age children want. I want grandchildren, but I don’t think they do so….

 

[57stratdawg]

Mississippi’s declining population is due to wokeness

 

[OG Goat Holder]

A significant portion of the losses are homeschooled.

So what’s your view on that? Good or bad?

 

[jethreauxdawg]

When I was in high school (early-mid '60s) Jackson had 3 white high schools (don't know how many black ones) and Meridian had 1 white, 1 black. School population then was higher than it is now, maybe by a factor of 2. Our class size was typically at least 30, even in elementary.

High school was only grades 11 & 12. Junior high was grades 7-10.

A significant portion of the losses are homeschooled.

Mississippi’s declining population is due to wokeness

So what’s your view on that? Good or bad?

Ooooh, we’ve got potential to roll these into one epic misguided argument. Can we get a pro-segregation, anti-woke, homeschooling view and a woke, anti-private school view to bow up on each other?

(I know rocketdawg was not promoting segregation)

 

[The Cooterpoot]

Mississippi’s declining population is due to wokeness

It's due to ****** paying jobs

 

[L4Dawg]

So what’s your view on that? Good or bad?

Depends totally on the individual situation.

 

[L4Dawg]

Mississippi’s declining population is due to wokeness

Lack of employment opportunities has a LOT more to do with it.

 

[Lucifer Morningstar]

Mississippi’s declining population is due to wokeness

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

A significant portion of the losses are homeschooled.

I would like to know the data on that. There have been a number of charter schools approved over the past several years - some of which are as much as 80% virtual - would that be considered homeschooling?

 

[Maroon Eagle]

I would like to know the data on that. There have been a number of charter schools approved over the past several years - some of which are as much as 80% virtual - would that be considered homeschooling?

No

 

[tbaydog]

https://mississippitoday.org/2026/05/17/mississippi-student-enrollment/

Somewhat surprised by how bad some of these numbers are. Not surprising that JPS enrollment is cratering and some of these rural districts, but surprised that Ocean Springs hasn't grown. I guess they just aren't attracting families? Or are they losing that many to private schools?

Going to be interesting to see what happens in the Fall 27/Spring 28 school year, when the education freedom tax credit goes into effect. I would assume enough people will contribute $1,700 to that program that it will be a meaningful number of kids that are able to escape bad school districts (or just bad situations in otherwise decent school districts). Something like 35-40% of Mississippi households have a high enough net income tax liability to participate (which means you need to pay net $2,000 in taxes, which is insane that that is less than half the state). Let's say 10% of the eligible households participate, that'd be up to $60M (after the max 10% going to administrative expenses and overhead) to fund scholarships for elementary and high school students across the state. Not sure how those scholarships have to be prioritized (or are allowed to be prioritized), but that's probably 2% of the public school students in the state that could get the equivalent of a scholarship equal to the median Mississippi private school tuition. Or 4% if their goal was to do half the median tuition.

ETA: Also crazy how much Jackson Public schools lost. I assume some of that is to charter schools? But shows you just how bad of a deal Jackson public schools are, in that their enrollment is plummeting while the MSA population as a whole has been growing, if somewhat slowly.

Jackson Public School District	29,488	16,968	−42.46%

Cut their Budget, accordingly!!

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Union County is full.

 

[CoastTrash]

declining population is because we're a rural state without a vibrant metro area.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

declining population is because we're a rural state without a vibrant metro area.

And our vibrant rural area is Noxapater **

 

[HulksStache]

Jackson MS is a sheethole. It’s the worst part of MS.

 

[Dawghouse]

MS birth replacement rate in 2000 was over the 2.1 required for population growth. In 2008 recession it dropped to 1.8. It's been in the 1.7-1.8 range since meaning population decline for the last 18 years

That's why public school enrollment has been dropping. It's not rocket science. That's also why it's expected to hit colleges hard starting this year. All the 18 year olds were never born.

Add in a little homeschooling and people leaving for better jobs and you are where you are. Colleges are in for even more trouble as people realize their degree is worth nothing.

It's only going to keep compounding and spread to all areas of life, workforce shortages, etc.

If people can't get their kids to start having babies, immigration will continue because corporations are going to find workers one way or another.

Boomers (and GenX now) say they want grandkids then watch their kids struggle with student loans, unable to buy a home, insane childcare costs. They do this from their 3500sq ft houses with 3 BR empty or their summer condos.

Countries that are still above replacement rate seem to have one thing that would never be done here, multigenerational housing. Grandma helps around the house and keeps the grandkids while the parents are out earning.

 

[L4Dawg]

MS birth replacement rate in 2000 was over the 2.1 required for population growth. In 2008 recession it dropped to 1.8. It's been in the 1.7-1.8 range since meaning population decline for the last 18 years

That's why public school enrollment has been dropping. It's not rocket science. That's also why it's expected to hit colleges hard starting this year. All the 18 year olds were never born.

Add in a little homeschooling and people leaving for better jobs and you are where you are. Colleges are in for even more trouble as people realize their degree is worth nothing.

It's only going to keep compounding and spread to all areas of life, workforce shortages, etc.

If people can't get their kids to start having babies, immigration will continue because corporations are going to find workers one way or another.

Boomers (and GenX now) say they want grandkids then watch their kids struggle with student loans, unable to buy a home, insane childcare costs. They do this from their 3500sq ft houses with 3 BR empty or their summer condos.

Countries that are still above replacement rate seem to have one thing that would never be done here, multigenerational housing. Grandma helps around the house and keeps the grandkids while the parents are out earning.

Most of them are very poor as well.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Jackson MS is a sheethole. It’s the worst part of MS.

Man.....that's some valuable and outside the box insight right there buddy, how'd you come to that conclusion

 

[OG Goat Holder]

If people can't get their kids to start having babies, immigration will continue because corporations are going to find workers one way or another.

OR......we could have continued out-sourcing all the BS jobs Americans don't want to do. We WERE transitioning to a 'management' type economy, but then comes the ThEyTuRkErJeRbS outrage first, and now we are making enemies with everyone and putting in tariffs to entice American companies to bring those shltty factories back here.

Boomers (and GenX now) say they want grandkids then watch their kids struggle with student loans, unable to buy a home, insane childcare costs. They do this from their 3500sq ft houses with 3 BR empty or their summer condos.

Countries that are still above replacement rate seem to have one thing that would never be done here, multigenerational housing. Grandma helps around the house and keeps the grandkids while the parents are out earning.

I 100% agree but the problem still becomes MS......there just aren't enough jobs there.

And yeah we got angry folks like Dave Ramsey out there proclaiming that kids should move out and pay rent immediately because it helps you 'grow up' and all that shlt. Never understood the need for Boomers and Gen X to try and make things as hard as possible on everybody else while not realizing their own good fortune.

 

[dorndawg]

MS birth replacement rate in 2000 was over the 2.1 required for population growth. In 2008 recession it dropped to 1.8. It's been in the 1.7-1.8 range since meaning population decline for the last 18 years

Went to read a little more about this, Mississippi's birth rate was quite a bit higher than the national average of 1.66

Decreasing Fertility Rate in the United States: Demographics, Challenges, and Consequences - PMC

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[BioChemDawg]

Went to read a little more about this, Mississippi's birth rate was quite a bit higher than the national average of 1.66

Decreasing Fertility Rate in the United States: Demographics, Challenges, and Consequences - PMC

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Think I've seen this story before