This isn't accurate.
You will have paid MUCH more in interest over that first 15 years, and still have another 15 years to pay on the house, in Option 2.
Run your calculations out over the whole 30 year period, with that Option 1 payment ($1,900) that has now disappeared, going in the Vanguard. Ruh Roh. Option 1 wins by over a million.
You sound like one of the ones who say, "Well Dave Ramsey has some good points, but I don't TOTALLY agree....."
I have to disagree with your last logic too. A 30 year note is best if you aren't staying in the house very long and want some extra cash, while a 15 year note is best if you will be there for a while. Honestly if you do not buy more house than you can afford, the 15 year note works best every time.
Logic like this is why America is in debt.
Like my 6th grade math teacher said, show your work son, I need to see how you got it so wrong.
Disagree and ruh roh all you want, your the one that is wrong. After 30 years both houses are paid off and worth the same so let's focus on the brokerage account. All calculations are based on 8.5% return compounded annually.
15 year option.
After 15 years you have $101,992 in the account from the $30,000 saved on the down payment. Now that the house is paid off, put the $1900 a month in the same account and 15 years later (30 years after home purchase) the account is worth $1,015,150... Not bad.
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30 year option.
After 15 years you have $263,842 in the account from adding $750 per month for the last 15 years. Now we will continue to add the $750 per month to the account. After 15 more years (30 years after home purchase) the account is worth $1,157,976. $142k more.
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I think you were not counting on the continued $750 per month investment.. 15 year guy is paying out $1900 to brokerage after the house is paid off... 30 year guy is paying $1150 to the mortgage and $750 to the brokerage account... Both still have $1900 flowing out.
The 30 year mortgage has the most value in years 15-30, the interest is all front loaded. Once you get to the backend it's gravy...
Dave Ramsey does have good points, but he's targeting an unsophisticated average consumer.
There are many reasons America is in debt, but managing cash flow, tax liability, and investments with sound reasoning is not a big contributor.
Now I am not saying 15 or 30 is better but it's not this slam dunk 15 year wins everytime. My argument is subject to market return risk, but also offers diversification. The 15 year option really sucks if you end up with home in a location that depreciates because the school district goes to crap or they find plutonium in the area.