Manchin is further to the right than, I would guess, 25% of the Senate Republicans. He'll be a sticking point, especially when it comes to coal.
OT: 401K
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This. I was going to say a 60/40 split is considered fairly normal for a 55 y/o. But some people that have a strong pension and other money coming their way can stand more risk. I'm 66 and all about preservation at this point with an allocation that hopefully takes care of inflation. Some would say I'm too conservative.
Here is a pretty good calculator that may help you in your planning. Look at each tab and you can enter as much detail as you like.
https://www.firecalc.com/
They won't get their wish list, but with so few moderate votes they need to persuade, they can mostly buy them off with pork. Best hope may be that the crazies slow down the legislative process trying to hold legislation hostage to the few items on their wish list that are so atrocious there's not enough pork to buy them off.
Itll be interesting to watch the next couple of years as the far left aggressive progressives push their agenda and the far right Qanon crazies push their agenda.
I think the Biden is going to give the environmentalists sort of what they want through executive action (like a new waters of the US rule, a new attempt at the clean power plan, and cancelling the permit for the keystone pipeline, which is a wild thing to announce ahead of time, both because Canada is supposedly an ally and because it creates a basis for overturning the decision, although I doubt they will apply the precedent used against Trump to Biden) because I don't think Manchin can be bought off on most of what they want, but I think the biggest thing that Manchin can be bought off on is maybe the $15 minimum wage. I assume that would be as brutal on west virginia as it would be on Mississippi, but it probably won't hurt the big employers. He might also negotiate an extended phase in period.
Smart man, a lot of people who are retired (or near retirement) lose out on a lot of gains due to going too conservative. Stay in an indexed equity fund and take 4%, over the long run your 401K will average 7-8%/year. Your 401k will continue to grow.
Meh. He'll get in line or something will be dragged up on him. Pressure is a *****.
If you intend to withdraw 4% the first year, and be able to increase that with inflation (regardless of what your portfolio does), you'd historically be better of with a 75%/25% asset allocation than 100% equity. Certainly more aggressive than the 60/40 a lot of advisors recommend, but still not all equity.
This is probably not quite accurate, but certainly, who is in power is not the dominant factor and between other factors playing a large role and then performance lagging policy changes, any pattern you can pick out without a lot of adjustments that are somewhat subjective is probably just coincidence.
The worst advice i see given is advice that tells people to get too conservative with your money. There is a temptation as people get close to retirement to invest too big a portion of their retirement portfolio in conservative funds. My advice is to keep what you expect to withdraw over the next ~ 7 years in lower risk assets (CD's, bonds, cash, etc.). The rest of the money should be invested no differently than if you were 25.....aggressive but smart investment in ETF's, mutual funds, S&P 500 index funds, etc. And then re-balance at the end of the year such that you always have the next 7 years fairly secured. But if you look at the history of the S&P 500 or the Dow, i don't think there's ever been a 7 year period at any point since the Great Depression where you'd have been better off in bonds than in the stock market.
And I agree that the bigger risk for anyone right now is inflation and not a stock market plunge. The Fed will print whatever it takes to keep it all afloat and "growing."
And I agree that the bigger risk for anyone right now is inflation and not a stock market plunge. The Fed will print whatever it takes to keep it all afloat and "growing."
It's actually VERY common. Clinton had all 3 at one point. George W Bush came in with the House and a 50/50 Senate tie, and they had control because of the VP tie-break. Obama came in with a large majority in the House and a 60-seat filibuster-proof Senate majority. And Trump had all 3 in his first 2 years. This is the natural flow of politics. An inspirational candidate sweeps to near-full power. The other side becomes enraged with the situation. The other side becomes complacent, and many of their voters realize, "you know, they didn't really change my life ALL that much and nothing like the unicorns and gumdrops they promised." So their voters aren't as fired up the next election cycle. And then the cycle repeats. It will repeat again in 2022. Expect the Republicans to definitely take back the House and probably the Senate as well. The Senate is always a trickier one to re-take in one single cycle because only 1/3 of the seats are up every cycle.
Personally, I believe much of the market is currently overvalued. Both my 401K and managed account have gone up roughly 25% last year. They both went up roughly 40% from the lowest point in the March rona dip. Although that's not unheard of, I don't see that trend going on much longer. Throw in the potential for political unrest and executive orders that are not exactly business friendly and I have a combination that makes me very uneasy... I'm 50 and I'm not one to frequently move funds, but I just temporarily shifted from an aggressive growth strategy to a very conservative one today in both accounts. If things stay on an upward trend over the next few months I may have missed out on some gains, but I'll sleep better for now.
I think you moved them to early, you can literally wait until the drop starts and move them and still be in good shape.
Cash Balance IRA way to go if have your own business and have extra funds can put in it over normal IRA. Has to be in consrvative(ie cash) so can counter balance aggressive IRA. Has gotten me a lot closer to retirement. I just wish I had known about it twice as long.
General advice, especially to the younger folk: focus on your spending before focusing on your retirement. I've played with all the numbers and scenarios, and it always comes back to your spending level controls your retirment account health much much more than savings, investment choices, market swings, or interest rates. Learn to live cheap off what you really need and want rather than what the TV tells you you must have or whatever the Jones are blowing their money on this week, and you'll find early retirement to be a breeze, that your job works for you instead of you working for your job/boss, and so on.
No, no, no! Unless you're making $40k a year, spending should be way lower! Hell, the 401k limit is way above that and you should at least be maxing that out to minimize taxes. And then saving on top of that so as to have $ until 59.5. It also lowers the amount of spending in retirement, which has a double effect when considering SS.
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