OT: 1/25 Rain Storm
- Thread starter Zak57
- Start date
The weather experts would know better, but I think this actually is a nor'easter. It came out of the south as nor-easters do, and it's in the season in which nor'easterners are the most common. The good news is that here in Cherry Hill the rain is letting up; that probably means that you up in north and central Jersey will get relief in the next few hours.
Stop ... it’s a rain incident which has occurred since time began ... good for the Jersey farmers still left...was out and about in the Woodbridge area around noon... roads and stores are packed... now if you want to discuss something serious talk to Nuts who has friends in Wuhan Province China... that is a bad thing Zak57
Sitting on the dock of the bay in Charleston. Upper 50s .not a cloud in the sky.. Cool breeze. Most dressed in parkas.Me? Shorts and a tee. This is winter.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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Went to my mom’s house to check up on the place. No one is there.
Not one but two sump pumps crapped out. Same day. Had to replace both. No water came in luckily. Just went there on a whim luckily.
Not one but two sump pumps crapped out. Same day. Had to replace both. No water came in luckily. Just went there on a whim luckily.
This link you are sharing makes my point for me:
"Nor’easters usually develop in the latitudes between Georgia and New Jersey, within 100 miles east or west of the East Coast. These storms progress generally northeastward and typically attain maximum intensity near New England and the Maritime Provinces of Canada. They nearly always bring precipitation in the form of heavy rain or snow, as well as winds of gale force, rough seas, and, occasionally, coastal flooding to the affected regions."
With all this qualifying language, you can wiggle a lot of different things into this "definition." Add in that with the exception of a clipper system, most storms from October through April take this same SE to NE track across the eastern third of the country, and "nor'easter" is really a wishy-washy weather term.
Here's another angle- meteorologists argue pretty hard over whether or not some marginal systems should be classified as tropical storms or hurricanes, based on various criteria. Nobody argues over whether or not a coastal storm should be recognized as a nor'easter.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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I’ve been a meteorologist for over 30 years...I know one when I see one on weather charts...it’s not that difficult. Hurricanes are just as easy...is it warm core? Then it’s a tropical system...otherwise some hybrid and those do occur (sandy, the “perfect storm” come to mind)
I didn't realize you were in the biz. I freelance as OCM for NJTV News. Where are you working? Any RU affiliation by degree?
Why do people argue so much in weather threads?
RUJohnny - the one differentiating reason why I think people argue over tropical systems is because classification affects seasonal stats and the pros involved want to get them right. Whether there's one more nor'easter or not doesn't affect how that season is remembered. Although I do agree the definition is pretty wide. Personally, I don't think of rainmaking storms that come up inland of the coast as nor'easters, like this past Saturday's (once the secondary low near the coast became the dominant low vs. the Great Lakes low) even though it "fits" the general definition, but I'm sure others disagree with that.
Yeah that's a good point about seasonal stats. I just think of the term "nor'easter" as being a little bit more anecdotal and less formal. Hell even Jeopardy got the definition wrong in a clue a couple weeks ago. I think the clue implied northeast was the direction the storm came from rather than the direction the storm went to.Why do people argue so much in weather threads?
RUJohnny - the one differentiating reason why I think people argue over tropical systems is because classification affects seasonal stats and the pros involved want to get them right. Whether there's one more nor'easter or not doesn't affect how that season is remembered. Although I do agree the definition is pretty wide. Personally, I don't think of rainmaking storms that come up inland of the coast as nor'easters, like this past Saturday's (once the secondary low near the coast became the dominant low vs. the Great Lakes low) even though it "fits" the general definition, but I'm sure others disagree with that.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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Because we weather people are generally drama queens...most of us were not good at sports so this became our athleticism...this what I think and if you disagree you’re completely wrong!:Wink:Why do people argue so much in weather threads?
RUJohnny - the one differentiating reason why I think people argue over tropical systems is because classification affects seasonal stats and the pros involved want to get them right. Whether there's one more nor'easter or not doesn't affect how that season is remembered. Although I do agree the definition is pretty wide. Personally, I don't think of rainmaking storms that come up inland of the coast as nor'easters, like this past Saturday's (once the secondary low near the coast became the dominant low vs. the Great Lakes low) even though it "fits" the general definition, but I'm sure others disagree with that.
please note winky face before offense is taken...
@RUJohnny and @West Point Knight - any thoughts on this weekend's storm? Looks like we'd really need a perfect track/timing of marginal cold air (coupled with dynamic cooling) to get this to be a snowmaker, which is unlikely, but not impossible. Right now most of the models have it missing offshore, although many go by the rule of thumb that there is an eastward bias in the models in the medium term, such that the actual track often ends up west of the model track from 3-6 days out (interesting recent AMS presentation on this in the link). Still 5-6 days away, so much can change.
https://ams.confex.com/ams/29WAF25N...7679&uniqueid=Paper345644&entry_password=null
Also, by the way, the UK model outputs were just added to the models on Pivotal (along with the Euro added a few months back) - nice to finally have all the major models in one place.
https://ams.confex.com/ams/29WAF25N...7679&uniqueid=Paper345644&entry_password=null
Also, by the way, the UK model outputs were just added to the models on Pivotal (along with the Euro added a few months back) - nice to finally have all the major models in one place.
I'm hopeful. Progressive flow but tons of shortwaves embedded. Would love to see some phasing and digging and to see if we could get the trough to go negative before the big Pac jet pushes it off the coast. It'd be an interesting storm to watch unfold with a marginal antecedent air mass and (as of now) no high pressure of significance to our NW.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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18z (at the 120hr point) has it East of the preferred threshold...at this point I’d say nuisance snow...maybe the cape and MV/Nantucket might get some...
All 4 major global models at 0Z (7 pm EST data initialization) are now showing a pretty significant to major nor'easter this weekend (mostly Saturday late morning through the evening), but only one of them (GFS) is showing significant snowfall for our area, while the UK shows a monsoon of a rainstorm and the Euro and CMC show a major storm a couple hundred miles off the coast, with just some modest rains near the coast, but huge rains offshore. The fact that all 4 are showing a major storm is noteworthy, so I think it's time for a thread, even though the odds of a major snowstorm are still pretty low right now.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
No, I started a new one, as this was for the 1/25 rainstorm. Low likelihood of snow here, but could be a powerful storm with lots of rain and some coastal flooding (and an outside shot at snow), so figured why not.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...-2-1-mostly-rain-likely-at-this-point.188004/
I got up at 600am Sat to make sure the Coastal Advisory hadn't been upgraded. It hadn't so I went back to bed. Rained like hell for a few hours then the sun came out then heavy fog. Nothing special.