Opening Line
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I agree. Seven sounds about right. Five suggests there is an expectation of a Cats letdown.
Yeah Sagarin has us at 7. We already had a bit of a letdown vs. Nebby (our games vs. Io_a and MSU were better overall efforts), so hopefully we got it out of our system, as this is essentially a bowl elimination game for Purdue and they will come ready to play...
Huh? NU led at the half against NE, didn't look like a let down game to me. Football isn't a game of perfect and CT made a couple of bad throws, one of which cost him a TD. The NU defense held NE to 17 points and the Cats ran for >230 yards. I'd hardly call that a let down.
CT stated after the game that he clearly had regressed from the MSU game. Iowa and MSU are far better football teams than Nebby; they played well, but we simply played better.
On the other hand, Nebby, who has arguably not played very well all season, played a mistake-filled game (note the number of drops, INTs and terrible penalties at key junctures, all halmarks of a bad football team), yet we likely only beat them after their OC called a silly pass play right after Riley literally stated to his players "We can get a FG here and be up two scores...."
Have to be honest that I was a little insulted by the opening line...granted we've been living on the edge for the past few weeks, but Purdue is still a work in progress and they just lost their starting QB.
...but I'll also admit that I remember 2010 like it was yesterday when the Boilers led by that hillbilly Danny Hope rode in as 10 point dogs and beat us under the lights, so...whatever.
...but I'll also admit that I remember 2010 like it was yesterday when the Boilers led by that hillbilly Danny Hope rode in as 10 point dogs and beat us under the lights, so...whatever.
I'm with you. Purdue without Blough on the road is only a 4 pt dog... who lost to Nebraska WITH Blough at home? Whatever. Show up, win.
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Actually, I think they scored 14 on turnovers so our D effectively held them to about 330 yds and 10 pts
We have to remember that Purdue has shown a tendency to keep games close; thus, the line seems reasonable.
Yes. Purdue has actually played quite well and has not given up that many points. At first I thought that losing Blough would make a big difference, but their second second string quarterback is not much of a drop-off in talent, and he has seen lots of playing time this year; he has thrown almost as many passes this year as Blough, so it's not like he hasn't seen the field much.
With the full realization that I'm setting myself up to look really bad come Sunday, I'd take the 'Cats minus as many as nine points in this one.
The opponent would have to be pretty bad - Illinois bad - for me to bet NU as a favorite of over 7, and I bet on us a lot.
It sure would be nice to have a game where we can cruise to a multiple TD victory, scoring early and often.
Was at 6 as of this morning, but dropped to 4.5 at some point today.
I was thinking it would be 7.5 at kickoff
The point spread will be larger than the number of fans in the Illinois student section......
Yeah, figure the O/U on that is going to be 10.The point spread will be larger than the number of fans in the Illinois student section......
I'd have no problem with that, Mike, but objectively that sounds a bit heavy to me. All semantics, though; as long as we come out of there with the W, all's well.
Interestingly, although NU is a 4.5 pts favorite as of this writing, the predicted score is roughly 29-26. 3 pts is basically the home-field advantage, hence they seem to view both teams as essentially even (which is somewhat surprising given that NU's conference record is much better).
Perhaps they aren't given NU much credit for the OT victories, possibly viewing them as near losses. In fairness, an OT win could have gone the other way by the tiniest of changes, say a near INT being actually caught or vice-versa, a critical tough catch being called a drop or out of bound, a gust of wind at the right/wrong time changing a FG attempt outcome, etc. etc. Maybe for prediction purpose, and OT win is essentially a tie, which would make sense.
EDIT: If you just count the OT's as ties (which they were before tie-breakers were introduced) then NU's B1G record would be 1-2-3. That'd be an IDENTICAL B1G win % as PU's (2-4). I guess it all makes sense, after all!!!
http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/purdue-northwestern-odds-november-11-2017-793950
Perhaps they aren't given NU much credit for the OT victories, possibly viewing them as near losses. In fairness, an OT win could have gone the other way by the tiniest of changes, say a near INT being actually caught or vice-versa, a critical tough catch being called a drop or out of bound, a gust of wind at the right/wrong time changing a FG attempt outcome, etc. etc. Maybe for prediction purpose, and OT win is essentially a tie, which would make sense.
EDIT: If you just count the OT's as ties (which they were before tie-breakers were introduced) then NU's B1G record would be 1-2-3. That'd be an IDENTICAL B1G win % as PU's (2-4). I guess it all makes sense, after all!!!
http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/purdue-northwestern-odds-november-11-2017-793950
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I've watched every Illini game this season. They are nearly as bad as Bowling Green. Feel better now?
Something isn’t sitting well with me on this line. We will see if The sharps move the line this morning. Clearly some are expecting the dreaded bounce game by the Cats. Emotionally spent. However, bounce games usually occur after out of character strong or weak games. Blow outs. I would stay off this one, something smells rotten in Denmark.
Broem is a good coach. I think we get an ugly Cat win, but felt a lot better about our chances against Nebby and that was a dog fight.
Agreed. Might take NU if it gets to -3, but that would be kind of stupid as betting against the sharps isn’t the best move 54 percent of the time.
Don't know if anyone else heard this but the ESPN analyst who picked us to lose the bowl game last year as his surest pick (Believe it's Kannell sp?) picked us yesterday on his locks for the weekend on his midday radio show. This was based on what he stated as 3 1/2 favs. At 3 1/2 I'd take it.