20-3? I think you better raise that MU score. It will be somewhere in the mid to upper 30's for sure. Colorado put up 36 and got damn near skunked when they faced a contender.
Opening Line vs Wolverines +18.5
- Thread starter BadgerPete
- Start date
We gave up 36 to CU. What did CU score against Oregon? Lets hold back on the reigns a bit here folks. We have a long ways to go before we start saying the Blackshirts are back.
If we hold MU to less than 24 I'll say take it back. Until then we are just a good solid middle tier defense.
You dropped the condescending “Vegas doesn’t think” line, so when you’re condescending and patronizing you don’t usually get warm fuzzy responses. Have enough self awareness to realize your douchey comment inspired mine. GBR bro…
And besides that, what he posted isn't true. The goal of the bookmakers is not just to get 50/50 on every game. That is often the case, but there are also times they try to beat the betting public. Anytime you see a line that is too good to be true, and everyone is betting it, you should take pause.
The book "The Odds" lays it out pretty well. It follows some professional gamblers and bookmakers in Vegas and shows how the game really works.
My thoughts also! He can't keep running the ball 20 times a game and make it through the season.
We have the number 1 rushing Defense in the country and number 23 in Total D and climbing and lead the nation in defensing yards per rush at 1.83 yards per rush. Michigan's Rushing Offense is 49th. The 4 defenses that Michigan has played against this year were all outside the top 50, This Michigan squad is a far cry from the one 2 years and that team would absolutely curb stomp this years squad! Michigan hasn't played against a real D yet this year and have struggled a bit this year vs lower D's
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10 of those points were gifted via turnovers inside our own 35 yard line
8 more came against our 2nd team late in the 4th quarter
I predict Sims starts, we end up down 17-0 by the 2nd quarter and HH comes in after a Sims pick. We lose 31-7.
if Sims starts, Rhule risks losing the locker room.
he cannot afford that, in my opinion, and he knows it. Haarberg has won the job on the field and it's clear his brothers respond to his leadership.
Colorado has (more so with Hunter) a dangerous passing game. But their OL is poor and they have no run game to speak of. It is much more difficult to defend offenses that can both run and pass.
The line looks about right to me. Something like a 30-10 final.
The line looks about right to me. Something like a 30-10 final.
Haarberg has earned the right to start and I’d be surprised if Rhule starts Sims..
If you're going to use the "Michigan hasn't played anyone" argument, you have to apply it to us too. We haven't played anyone either and the one team we played with a pulse has a pretty bad run game.
Most of those points were gifts from Sims. If HH starts, I think we've seen he's less prone to the unforced turnover. Might just be luck even, but I think most of us would still take that over the pure ineptitude we've seen from Sims like when he gifted Colorado the majority of their points
Mostly agree, however, even though Sims has been a turnover machine, I do think he has a better arm than Haarby and at least gives us a chance at a deep threat which we are gonna need. They are gonna load the box against us, so it’s a tough situation.
Haarberg's arm strength isn't the issue. giving him more than 1.5 seconds to take a drop and uncork the deep ball has been.
I think we'll see more downfield success going forward. it's clearly a priority.
Dude has the arm strength, but he is definitely seeing ghosts with Corcoran getting him lit up. He also is failing to see some open guys, but once that glicks he could be pretty damn good.
Michigan will likely be missing their best interior DLineman, Mason Graham. But the interior DL is our deepest unit.
How about pass rushers? Do you have any capable of getting by an OT who consistently grades out at 0.0 on pass blocking, regardless of the opponent?Michigan will likely be missing their best interior DLineman, Mason Graham. But the interior DL is our deepest unit.
No particular reason, just curious.
spread this stat around the retirement home during bingo this week:Michigan will likely be missing their best interior DLineman, Mason Graham. But the interior DL is our deepest unit.
It would be pretty sad if they put up 42 points on our defense. We'd have to turn the ball over A LOT... which is kind of our specialty over the years.
So far this year they have scored:
30 vs East Carolina
35 vs UNLV
31 vs Bowling Green
31 vs Rutgers
If we hold on to the ball and don't go 3 and out often, this will be a pretty close game.
Unfortunately the key to this game will be our offensive line allowing us to run the ball and to avoid turnovers.
Yeah there’s a ton of flaws to “opponent adjusted stats”. If your defense is great and you shut down a top tier offense, it will make that offense seem “bad” when in fact it was just you were good. It’s a very passive way to look at stats especially this early in the season
Also it compares scores and you can’t do that. Each week is some what independent. CU with Travis Hunter is different without Travis Hunter. Or look at the cowboys, Cardinals, and Giants in a 3 week sample. Dallas boat races Giants. Giants beat AZ. But Az beats Dallas by 2 scores. And that’s just a matter of weeks. So in stat base adjustment, Dallas loss is bad because AZ lost to a team (GMen) who was hammered week 1, even though it was Dallas who hammered the GMen?!?!? It’s a bit of a conundrum… and before someone says “NFL is different” I’m not comparing NFL to college, I’m just showing a really recent example of how this can be really messed up way to look at things